当前位置：文档库 › 轻工造纸行业跟踪周报(2011.9.5-2011.9.11)

轻工造纸行业跟踪周报(2011.9.5-2011.9.11)

2011 9 13

? ?ガ g???ガg? ???

2011 9 5 ?2011 9 11

? ??????

????φ? δ? ε ?? φ ? δ? ε

???? ? ?ガ?

к ????ъ ?? ???300л?2.02%?? л?2.57%? ъ л?3.11%?? ?л?1.67%??? ?? ? ????? ?? ?ъ?10.57%?? ???0.84%?? ?ъ?0.15%??? ??-0.18%?? 咠?ъ?-1.13%?? ?? ? ??5.15%?? ????2.94%??伎??A ?2.44%?? ????2.16%??????0.64%??

?? ?? ? ???? ? ?? ? ???????っ?? ???? л?50 / ? ?? ???9 ??? ?500 ?? ???9 10 ??? ?1з ? ??? ? ???っ??? ? ??? ???っ???? ?????

??? ?? ?? ? ? ??? ?? ???? ? ?а ? ?? ?? ? ?????? ? ?? っ? ?0.02%? ??к?0.17%? ???? ??л━?? ?? ??? ??? -0.08%?-0.30% 0.06%? ? ?-0.63%?-0.51% 0.36%? ?? っ ? 仾? ?? ? ?? ?? ⌒ 仾??? ??? ???? 仾??

????н? ?? ???? ? ? ?ъ?? ?? ?? ??ъ? ? ???? ≤ っ??

ā ? ā? ??? ?? ?????????? ?? ? ?ъй ? ???? ? ? ??? ā ? ā??? ? ????

?? 喀 ??

???ъ? ? ???っ? ??っ ? ? ? ? ?л?????ъ? ъ? ? ? ???? ? ? 亴 ?? ?? ? ??っ? ?? ā? ā?????? ? к⑨ ? ?????? ? ??ъ? 呓?ъ ??ъ?

?? ? 人? ???

EPS δ εPE

〦

??δ ε10 11E 12E 10 11E

12E PB ??

???δ ε

? 8.37 0.21 0.28 0.39 40 30 21 3.5 ? 8.81 ??? 36.23 0.80 1.01 1.67 45 36 22 3.9 ? 44.16 ? ?? 16.19 0.66 0.82 1.09 24 20 15 3.9 ? 20.53 ??? 13.67 0.37 0.52 0.78 36 26 18 5.5 ? 19.50 ??? 18.90 0.35 0.52 0.86 54 36 22 4.2 ? 21.50 ?? 42.75 0.79 1.35 2.03 54 32 21 3.6 - 喀 14.48 0.27 0.41 0.86 54 35 17 2.7 ? 21.50 ? ? 17.55 0.33 0.75 1.12 54 23 16 2.3 ? 30.00 ??ъ 9.25 0.63 0.78 1.14 15 12 8 2.5 ? 19.10 呓?ъ 6.10 0.56 0.67 0.84 11 9 7 0.9 ? 10.66 ??ъ 6.72 0.32 0.60 0.67 21 11 10 1.1 ? 10.79 ???

26.05

1.04 1.21

1.58

2.1

35.18

? ??? ? ? ?? ?????2011 9 9 ??

? ???儎? ???021-******** ???zhjia@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/175518734.html,

ъ??? ?S1010510120064

? ???ъ (1)

? ?ъ (1)

к ??亩??? (2)

?? ?? (4)

???ъ ?? (5)

? ??? (5)

??? (8)

? ?? (11)

? (11)

?? (13)

??? ? 亴? (16)

???ъ? ? ?к⑨ ?ケ (16)

?? ???? ? ? (17)

? (18)

?? ??? ?? (18)

1? ??umpaper?? (7)

2? ????? (7)

3????umpaper?? (7)

4??????? (7)

5?? ?umpaper?? (7)

6?? ???? (7)

7?? ? ?umpaper?? (8)

8?? ? ???? (8)

9? ????? (8)

10??????? (8)

11??????? (8)

12?? ???? (8)

13?? ┲? ??? (10)

14???┲? ??? (10)

15?? ┲? ??? (10)

16?? ? ?? (10)

17?? ? ?? (10)

18? ? ?? (10)

19? ?о? ?? (11)

20????? (11)

21?? ? ? ? (11)

22?? ? ? ?仍 (11)

23???? ? (12)

24???? ?仍 (12)

25?? ? ? (12)

26?? ? ?仍 (12)

27???? ? (13)

28????? ? (13)

29? ?? ? (13)

30? ??? ? (13)

31?? ? ? (13)

32?? ?? ? (13)

33??? ?? ? (14)

34?FAI ?? (14)

35?FAI (15)

36?? ?? (16)

37? ? 仍?? (16)

38???? ?о ???? (16)

39? ? ?о ???? (16)

???

?1? ???? ??? а? (6)

?2?? ?? ??? а? (9)

?3??? ?? а? (14)

?4??ъ? ??? ? ? (15)

?5??ъ? ? ? ? (15)

?6? ??? ? (16)

?7???к ? 亴??? ?? (17)

?8?? ???? ?? ?? ? (18)

? ???ъ?? ?2011 9 5 ü2011 9 11 ?

? ??↓ ? ? ? ?? 2011 9 13

? ????

? ?ъ

? ??? ??? ????亥?

?? ?

? ? ???

?? ??

?? ? ???

? ? ???? ? 儈й h t t p ://w w w .p a p e r .c o m .c n /n e w s /d a y n e w s /2011/110908094355824778.h t m ??? ? ??5% 15%???≤ ? ??? ? ? ?? ╛? ? ? ? ?

╛⑨ ?ъ? ? ? 亩???傼 h t t p ://w w w .t o y -c t a .o r g /i n f o /s h o w n e w s o p e n .a s p ?t y p e i d =88&n e w s i d =13226 ?亩? ?? ╛?ъ? ? 儈? ? ??? ?

? ? ???

?ъ

?? S T ? ?

S T ? ?? ?15? h t t p ://w w w .p a p e r .c o m .c n /n e w s /d a y n e w s /2011/110909095048190352.h t m

? ? к亩??? ? ?伏 ?о?亩?? ???16

з ?伏 ?10з ?10з ?

?? *S T ? ??

? ?? ?? ?亩??? ??h t t p ://w w w .p a p e r .c o m .c n /n e w s /d a y n e w s /2011/110908095431848400.h t m

*S T ? ??? ?仍1.5? ?? ? к

╛? ???

6 ??? 傜? ?? h t t p ://w w w .t o y -c t a .o r g /i n f o /s h o w n e w s o p e n .a s p ?t y p e i d =86&n e w s i d =13191

? ?? 傜?? ? ?26? ? ? ? ??? о

? ??? ?

??? ??у仈

? ? ???

?ъ??

?? ???

ā ??ā? ??? 5 h t t p ://w w w .p a p e r .c o m .c n /n e w s /d a y n e w s /2011/110908101637186213.h t m

? ? ?→ ??亩??

? ?? ? ?ㄉ?? ???? ? ъ??? ? ??

? ???ъ?? ?2011 9 5 ü2011 9 11 ?

? ??↓ ? ? ? ?? 2011 9 13

к ??亩???

? ?? 〦

??δ ε?????? ???δ ε

??? ?? ? ?? ???仓

??亯?人? ?

002012.S Z ??15.52

???

?12.30?5000з

?25.67% ??

5.0? 1. ?1.1з ??????? ?亩?

2. ?1.4з └?? ??? ?亩?

3. ??? ?? ? ??? ???? ?? 亩?

1.亴? ? 31500з ? ?6767з ?? ? ? ??28.37%

2.亴? ? 38800з ? ?8326з ?? ? ? ??27.27%

3.亴? ? 27000з ? ?3987з ?? ? ? ??30.95% 600963.S H ? ?6.61

? ???

?8.39 ?2.39?

?28.35%

?20?

1. ?? ?ъо ? 73.41%? ?

2. ?傿? ?┲???? ?? ? 亩??

3. ??? ъ?? ? ъ?? ? ???

4.? ? ???1.? ? ?2.亴? ?

5.43 ?? ? ? ??22.65%?3.? ? ?4.??? ??2380з ?002078.S Z ??ъ9.25

? ???

?11.82?2.2??21.89%

?25? 1.? ā ??а? ā亩??2.30з 儈 ???亩??3.? ? ???1.亴? ? 4.89 ?? ? ? ??31.92%?2.亴? ? 6.87 ?? ? ? ??13.95?3.? ?2? ? ???600356.S H ??ъ7.89 ?

? 100 ???

?450з?N A ?4.5? 1. ?6000 儈?? └ ? ? ?亩??2. ?1.7з ?? ?亩??3. ?6з ??? ? ?亩??1.亴? ? 14100з ?? ? ? ??30.18%?2.亴? ? 20740з ?? ? ? ??30.17%?3.亴? ? 66300з ?? ? ? ??20.73%?600433.S H ?儈 8.05 ???

? ???

?10.16?1.2??41.96% ?13? ⒋?ь? ????ъ 亩??а ?

亴? ? 12.7? ? ?1.7? ?? ? ??16.64% 000488.S Z ? 呓?ъ6.10

?? ?5.95% 2000з?н?? 20? н??

н??

002043.S Z 9.06

????8.92 ?5300з?

2.59% ?47329з 1. у ?? ????? ?亩??2. ?? ? 100%? ?亩??

3. ?? ? ?亩??

1. 600 ?у ? ? ? 15 ?а?у 400 ???у 185 ?

2.?亩? ? っ ?? ??亴? ? ? 仍 158,000з ? ? 仍 3,348.01 з ? ???? ? ????18.63%?002229.S Z 呯 ??1

3.61 ? ???

13.6 20,94з?15.40%

? 仍28,478.40з

1. ? ?亩?

2. ? ? 亩?1.亴? ? 20759з ?? ?2808з ?? ? ? ??16.48% 2.亴? ? 9584з ?? ?1130з ?? ? ??18.28%

? ???ъ?? ?2011 9 5 ü2011 9 11 ?

? ??↓ ? ? ? ?? 2011 9 13

? ??

〦??δ ε?????? ???δ ε ??? ?? ? ?? ???仓??亯?人? ?

002067.S Z ?ъ

6.71 ? ???6.13 1.55??40.82% ? 仍?9.5? ?6.8 з ??? ?????亩?亴?? ? ??22.20%

600567.S H 咠?ъ

4.39 ? ???4.8 2.2?? 1.97% ? 仍?10.56?

?45з ?? ?亩?亴? ? ? 仍 ?160834з 25617з ?? ? ??18.50% 002259.S Z ? ъ9.47

? ???

5.67 5640з?18.74% ? 仍?3.2? 1. ?16з? ㊣? ?? ??? ??

2. ?30з ???? ??

1.亴? ? 28800з ?? ?3940з ?? ?? ??21.39%?

2.亴? ? 30000з ?? ?3073з ?? ?? ??22.67%?60096

3.S H ??ъ6.61

?ь??7.70 1.9?? 30.00% ?15? 1. ?傿? 100%? ??2. ?30.07з? ъ??亩??

1. ?? ?? ? ???9640

2.7з ?2. ? ??2

3.59%?? ? ?3.91 ?000592.S Z ?? ъ7.87

? ???

?5?1.1??48.53% ?5.5? 1.? ?? 亩??2.? ?? ??? 亩??3.10з? ъ ?亩??4.10з????? ?亩??5.???? ?亩??

1.亴?亩? ?

2.6? ? 3965з ?? ? ? ??21.54%?2. 亴? ? 1.7? ? 2512з ?? ? ? ??28.06%?

3. 亴?а??? ? 5.2? ? 1.8? ?? ? ? ??18.20%?4亴???? ? 5? 2? ? 000659.S Z ??? 5.32

???

7.10 6800з?11.48% ? 仍?4.8? 1.??? 亩??2. ?? 亩??3.??? 亩??4. ?? ?亩??

1. 亴?亩? ? 17115з ? ?6699з

?? ? ??18.27%?2. 亴? ? ???82800з ?? 14377з ? 2494з ?3. ????57600з ?亴?? 14212з ? 1723з ?600337.S H ? ??13.45

? ???

9.50 1.22??

23.92%

? 仍??11.6? 1. ? ??ь? ? ?? ? 49%? ?2. ? ? ??? ??亩??

? ? ? ? ? ?? ?? ?亴? ? 40000з ?? ? ??12.15%

002102.S Z ? ?9.36

? ???

8.08 3412з?

20.01%

? 仍?2.8? 1.āа?а ā ? ???? 亩??2.? ? ???亴? ?4302з ?? ? ??12.02%

600978.S H ъ5.31

? ???

5.70 1.48??

14.73%

? 仍?8.4? 1.???? ?亩??2.? ? ?亩??3. ???? ?亩??

16? ?傼? ?亴? ?27285з

? ? ??16.67%

002117.S Z ь???18.26 A ?

25.69 1412з?12.84%

? 仍?3.6? 1.? ? 亩??2. ? ?о? ?亩??3.? ?? ъ 亩??

1. ?? ?12000з ㊣?亴? ? 18000з ? 2215з ?

2. 亴? ? 16800з ? 2287з ?

3. 亴? ? 5910з ? 956з ?002228.S Z ?8.37

? ???

12.60 2719з?14.31%

? 仍?3.4? 1.? 1? ㊣??亩??2. ?1? ㊣??亩??

1.亴? ? ?

2.5? ? ?2000з ?2. 亴? ? ?3? ? ?2000з ?

? ?? ?? ? ?ウ?

?? ??

? ??л? ??ā?ъ??ā?? ??

?? ??? ???? ? ?? ? ???????っ?? ???? л?50 / ? ?? ???9 ??? ?500 ?? ???9 10 ??? ?1з ?

2011-9-9

? ? ?っ? 哴 ?A?1620-1650???1550 ? ?? ?н 1600?н ??

??? ??к??? ?50?5450 ?? ?6450 ?? ?6350-6400 ?? ??5250 ?

? ? ? ???л?20? ?970? ?? ?? ? ?? 830? ?? ?? ?660? ?

ь??? ? ???30з 儈??? ??ъ ?亩?? ??↓? ? к ?? ?к ? ?? ???? ь ?ъ36з ?? ?亩? ? ????? ? ? ?? ? ?????? ? ? ? ↓ ?2011 ?17 ?? ?? ??? ? 学? 4 ? ?12.66з ??? ? ? 学?

2011-9-8

??? л?哴 ? ???? 30?? A?1740?B?1670???1520?н ??

к? ? ?ㄟ ? ???? ?л━? ? ?? ?? 250g? ? ?6850-6950 / кл?

??? ? ???? ?? ?? 6 кл?? 157g?咔??6100? ?6000?勨?5900

? ?????? 6100-6150 ? ? ?6100 ?н ?6000-6050 ? ?? 6050

? OCC? ??? ?н??? っ?? 11# ?272 ? 11# 263 ?UKOCC哴 ?260

?? 哴 ?? ⌒ н ? A?1770-1850?B?1700-1800?C?1650-1720?н ??

ь? 哴 ?????? ? ?A?1870-1930?B?1820-1850?н ?? ? ?? ??っ

Canfor ? 9 ?? ???? ??? 800? ?? 9 ?10 ? ?? ?

?APP л? ??????? ?9 ? ?? ? ?? 7 ??亴? ??? ?15000 ?

2011-9-7

? ????? ? っ ?50 / ??250g? ? ???????⒆ 6700-6800н??

? ?ъ? ??っ??250g? ⒆ 6650?儈 6750? ???ㄟ ??6700-6900

?? 哴 ?? ⌒ н ? A?1770-1850?B?1700-1800?C?1650-1720?н ??

9 ??к?10? ? ? LC640? /90 ? ? LC660? /90 ?? 10 ??

? ????? ??? ???? っ? ?3#2300?8#2400?9#2600?11#2350

ь ? っ ???? ? ?6100 ? ??? ?? ? ?5400 ? ?5350 ??ㄉ? ?5300 ?

? ? ??嗉к?哴 ? ???? 30?? A?1760?B?1710?C?1660?н ??

? ? ??? ?????? ? ??? ?100g? ?6500-6550кл? ?23# 6500кл

2011-9-6

??ъ ь ? ?? ????亩?? ?9 ? ??? ???? ?500 ????

????? 侸 ????? 6100 ? 6150 ?? ?6050 ?

ь ??ъ24# ?A1?A2???? A3? ? ?? 80g? ? ?6200 / кл

? ? н ?? ?ㄟ ?а?? ? ??к ?? л?50 / ?250g ???6950 /

? ?ъ ?9.6з ????亩?? ?9 10 ?????? ?????? ???? ?1з ?

? 9 1-5 ???? ? ? ? ?? ? ????12 ? ?? ?6 ?? ??? ? ?? ⌒ н ? ??? ?????A2??237-240?OCC哴 ?257-260?A9?? 250

ь? ? ?? ?? ??? ?? ?6150 ?? ?? ?6100-6150 ?? ?6050 ?

? ???? ??? ? ⒆ к 11 ?к??ъ?? ?к??? ??? ?а? 亶

? ? っ???3#253-255?8#273-275?11#263-265? ? ? ?

5 ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ??3#243-245,8#253-255,11#272-274

ь 呓?ъ ?? ↖? 呓 ?51%?? 呓? ?100%? 呓? ?26.4%? ? ? ?

??? ? л━? ? ? ? ??勨? ? ?157g? 5800 / кл??咔6400

2011-9-5

??? ?л? ? ?50 / ?? ???? 勌 ????勨?? ??? 5750кл а ??6100-6150 ? ?5350-5400 ?? ㄩ? ??100 ?A? ?5400 ?B? 5350

??? ?? ? ⌒ н ????????3# 2100?11# 2350-2380?13#A 2800

??? ? ?? 8 ? 9 ? ?? ?? ??????儈 5100 ? ?4850-4900

ь? ? ?ъ? ?? 9 ?? ? ?? ??а ?9 ? ? ? ?к?100 ?

9 к ? ???ъ ? ? っ??????っ100g ? 6700? ??? ? ? 7200 / ?

ь 哴 ??? っ??? ?A?1740-1770?B?1650-1680?н ??? ??? ?っ

? ??? ?ъл?哴 ? ???? 30?? A?1770?B?1700???1550?н ??

? ? ? ? ?儈 ??? ?ъ?? ? ? а? ? ??? ?? ?? ?? ?

???? ??

? ???

?? ??? 亮?2010 а ?? ????й ?? ?? ?? っ ?2011 а ? 傡 л?? ?? ??к???2%??? ?? ?к?3%-9%??? ? ? ?????????? っ?? 7 ??? ???? ? ?

?ъ?? ? ?? ??л?0.31%? ????л?0.31%? ?к?0.35%?2011 к?1.92%???? ??л?0.68%? ????л?2.43%? ?л?4.18%?2011 л?3.64%?? ? ?? н ? ????л?1.99%? ?к?3.44%?2011 к?0.54%?? ? ? ?? н ? ???? н ? ?к?9.07%?2011 к?2.80%?2011 8 ?????????? ? ? ?? н ?7 ?????? ?? н ?????? ??? ?? л━1.93% 1.24%?к ????к?3.02%??????л?1.43%??????л?0.73%?? ???л?0.06%?2010 ? ???к?14.37%??????к?27.45%? ?? ? ????к?2.58%??????к?12.67%?

?亴 ??? 呓80з ?70з ???? ?? ???? а ?7 ??? ? ?? 7?8 ? ?? ?? ? ?? ?亴?????? ?? ?? ? ? ? ???

?1φ ?〃?? ??? ж? ?φ /

?〃 ? 2011/09/08

?09

UPM 7100 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 208 3.02% -17 -0.23%??7083 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 8 0.12% 100 1.43% 8 0.12% ?21# 7150 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 825 13.04%250 3.62% 33 0.47%

?呭6217 -33 -0.53% -33 -0.53%200 3.32% 717 13.03% 233 3.90%

? 5883 -67 -1.12% -67 -1.12%-83 -1.40%158 2.77% -83 -1.40%??6517 -50 -0.76% -50 -0.76%-17 -0.26%967 17.42% 200 3.17%

?5800 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 267 4.82% 0 0.00% ??

-0.31% -0.31% 1.92% 5.51% 0.35%?咔6383 -17 -0.26% -183 -2.79%-133 -2.05%-675 -9.56% -125 -1.92%??6050 -8 -0.14% -83 -1.36%-258 -4.10%-767 -11.25% -250 -3.97% ?6425 -100 -1.53% -283 -4.22%-392 -5.75%-525 -7.55% -533 -7.66%?咠6400 -75 -1.16% -200 -3.03%-233 -3.52%-500 -7.25% -483 -7.02%? 6167 -17 -0.27% -117 -1.86%-117 -1.86%-517 -7.73% -150 -2.37%? 6875 0 0.00% -33 -0.48%-58 -0.84%-308 -4.29% -83 -1.20% 6342 -8 -0.13% -125 -1.93%-192 -2.93%-325 -4.88% 33 0.53%

? 5633 -100 -1.74% -183 -3.15%-208 -3.57%-517 -8.40% -208 -3.57%仾?5508 -50 -0.90% -175 -3.08%-492 -8.19%-775 -12.33% -642 -10.43%???

-0.68% -2.43% -3.64% -8.14% -4.18%?呕7683 0 0.00% -33 -0.43%0 0.00% 400 5.49% 350 4.77% ?7125 0 0.00% -183 -2.51%8 0.12% 258 3.76% 25 0.35% ? 6883 0 0.00% -175 -2.48%92 1.35% 383 5.90% 333 5.09%

7233 0 0.00% -183 -2.47%-25 -0.34%267 3.83% 58 0.81%

?6783 0 0.00% -150 -2.16%108 1.62% 350 5.44% 300 4.63%

??7000 0 0.00% -133 -1.87%33 0.48% 250 3.70% 333 5.00%? ?

0.00% -1.99% 0.54% 4.69% 3.44%

?呕5667 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 1142 25.23% 150 2.72%

??4942 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 167 3.49% 1175 31.19% 625 14.48%й 4992 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 167 3.45% 1117 28.82% 625 14.31%? ?5417 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 1033 23.57% 100 1.88%

??4967 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 233 4.93% 750 17.79% 383 8.36%

?嗉5617 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 167 3.06% 933 19.93% 233 4.33%

5400 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 100 1.89% 875 19.34% 500 10.20%? ?

0.00% 0.00% 2.80%23.72% 9.07% ?? ?5325 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 350 7.04% 475 9.79% 500 10.36% A?儈 ?

??? ??

3500 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -100 -2.78%600 20.69% 150 4.48% B?儈 ?

3400 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -100 -2.86%700 25.93% 200 6.25% C?儈 ?

3325 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -50 -1.48%700 26.67% 200 6.40%

A?儈 ????ь??3700

0.00%

???

0.00% 0.00% -2.75% 24.43% 5.71%??? ?⒈?6950 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 133 1.96% 900 14.88% 283 4.24%?嗉/ 嗉

? ??

4300 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -50 -1.15%475 12.42% 100 2.38%?嗉/?嗉

? ??

4150 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -50 -1.19%475 12.93% 100 2.47%?嗉/ ?

? ??

3950 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -50 -1.25%475 13.67% 100 2.60%?嗉/ 嗉

?ь??

4800 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -50 -1.03%0 0 -50 -1.03%?嗉/?嗉

?ь??

4600 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -75 -1.60%0 0 -75 -1.60%

?嗉/ ??ь??4400 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -75 -1.68%0 0 -75 -1.68%

? ?

0.00% 0.00% -1.32% 13.00% 0.52%? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

1φ ??umpaper ?? δ2007-2011 Ytd

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

J a n -07A p r -07J u l -07O c t -07J a n -08A p r -08J u l -08O c t -08J a n -09A p r -09J u l -09O c t -09J a n -10A p r -10J u l -10O c t -10J a n -11A p r -11J u l -11

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

2φ ????? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε ?φА

4500

500055006000650070007500800085009000A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

830

摠?

?棂

枅烌

枅?

?夈

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

3φ???umpaper ?? δ2007-2011 Ytd

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

J a n -07M a r -07M a y -07J u l -07S e p -07N o v -07J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11S e p -11

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

4φ?????? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

4500

50005500600065007000750080008500A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

?咔

?咠

仾?

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

5φ? ?umpaper ?? δ2007-2011 Ytd

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

110.00

120.00

130.00

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

6φ? ???? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

4000

4500500055006000650070007500800085009000A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

?呕

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

7φ? ? ?umpaper ?? δ2007-2011 Ytd

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

8φ? ? ???? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε ?φА

2500

30003500400045005000550060006500A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

?呕

? ?

?嗉

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

9φ ????? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

4000450050005500600065007000

A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ? 10φ?????? δ2008-2011 Ytd ε ?φА

1600

1800200022002400260028003000320034003600380040004200J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

A ?? ??

B ?

C ?

A ??ь??

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

11φ?????? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

4000

4500500055006000650070007500M a y -09J u n -09J u l -09A u g -09S e p -09O c t -09N o v -09D e c -09J a n -10F e b -10M a r -10A p r -10M a y -10J u n -10J u l -10A u g -10S e p -10O c t -10N o v -10D e c -10J a n -11F e b -11M a r -11A p r -11M a y -11J u n -11J u l -11A u g -11

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

12φ? ???? δ2008-2011 Ytd ε ?φА

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

D e c -08

J a n -09F e b -09M a r -09A p r -09M a y -09J u n -09

J u l -09A u g -09S e p -09O c t -09N o v -09D e c -09J a n -10F e b -10M a r -10

A p r -10M a y -10J u n -10J u l -10

A u g -10S e p -10O c t -10N o v -10D e c -10J a n -11F e b -1

1M a r -11A p r -11M a y -11J u n -11J u

l -11A u g -11

S e p -11

?嗉/?嗉

?嗉/ 嗉

?嗉/ ?

?嗉/?嗉?嗉/ 嗉?嗉/ ?? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

???

?? ??? ?? ??????? ????а???┎ ??? ? ? ??

???? ??? ? ? ? ? ?? ? ? ?? ???? ??? ? ? ?ъ? 12 ?? ? ?? ?? ??к ?

2010 к ? ??? 儈 ??л っ ?2011 а ??? ?к?4%-5%?? ??л⑨?? л━?? ??? ?л?16%?7 ?? ? ?? ?っ?? ?

?? ???? ? ?а ? ?? ?? ? ?????? ? ?? ?0.02%? ??к?0.17%? ?л?6.19%?2011 л?9.95%? ???? ??л━? ?7 ? ? ?? ? /?????? ??? ?? ????? ?? ?? ? ???к?? ? ?2010 ? ??? к??? 2011 ?а ??? к ?? ?? ??? ??? к?2.80%?8.44%?4.86%?? ? ?? ?а???? ????? っ?? ?? ??? ??? 1.04%?0.77% -0.56%?

? ?? ??? ??? -0.08%?-0.30% 0.06%? ? ?-0.63%?-0.51% 0.36%? ?к?10.54%?13.94% 11.33%?2011 ? ?3.66%?9.63% 4.31%?

?2φ? ?? ??? ж? ?φ /

? 2011/09/08 ?? ?? ?? ??

?? ?? ? ???09 ? ?09 ?? ? ? ???? 6125 25 0.41% 25 0.41% -700 -10.26%783 14.66% -275 -4.30% ? 6125 25 0.41% 25 0.41% -700 -10.26%783 14.66% -275 -4.30% ? 5375 50 0.94% 50 0.94% -400 -6.93%0 0.00% -392 -6.79%?

6125 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -725 -10.58%750 13.95% -342 -5.28% 6275 -75 -1.18% 0 0.00% -650 -9.39%550 9.61% -325 -4.92% ? 6250 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -600 -8.76%733 13.29% -317 -4.82% 6225 -25 -0.40% -25 -0.40%-625 -9.12%650 11.66% -342 -5.20%?劬? ?

5100 0 0.00% 0 0.00% -850 -14.29%-513 -9.13% -825

-13.92%

0.02% 0.17% -9.95% 8.59% -6.19%

3# 1548 1 0.06% -12 -0.77%117 8.18% 319 25.97% 230 17.45%6# 1440 1 0.06% -2 -0.16%-5 -0.33%231 19.13% 108 8.10% 8# 1621 1 0.06% 1 0.04% 48 3.05% 304 23.06% 246 17.85%9#

1851 -31 -1.64% -51 -2.67%46 2.54% 383 26.12% 187

11.21%

10# 1963 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%191 10.76%512 35.31% 213 12.20%11# 1743 14 0.79% -9 -0.52% 4 0.21% 292 20.13% 0 0.00%

12# 1775 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%-64 -3.47%341 23.78% 59 3.45% 13#A 2154 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%51 2.43% 448 26.23% 252 13.25%

37#

2282

0.06%

-4

-0.16%

-37 -1.58%558 32.39% 40

1.79%

? ?

-0.08% -0.63%

3.66% 27.03% 10.54%

A2 SoftMixed

????1526 1 0.06% -2 -0.16%

154 11.25%392 34.62% 218 16.65%UK OCC 1602 -2 -0.14% -6 -0.36%55 3.58% 336 26.52% 91 5.99% A5?8020?

1554 1 0.06% -2 -0.16%47 3.13% 360 30.10% 138 9.73% A5?9010? 1615 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%91 5.99% 379 30.70% 120

8.05%

A9?7030? 1574 1 0.06% -2 -0.16%66 4.40% 352 28.77% 198 14.37%A9?8020?

1596

-25

-1.52%

-28

-1.73%

66 4.28% 340 27.05% 186 13.20%B2 1931 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%

291 17.77%514 36.31% 283 17.20%A2 SoftMixed

?? ?

1526 1 0.06% -2 -0.16%

154 11.25%365 31.46% 218 16.65%?

-0.30% -0.51%

9.63% 31.19% 13.94%

1621 1 0.06% 4 0.24% 38 2.40% 297 22.42% 201 14.19%8# 1749 1 0.06% -3 -0.16%86 5.19% 343 24.37% 193 12.42%11# 1685 1

0.06%

0.99%

5.33%

395

30.61%

116

7.38%

0.06% 0.36% 4.31% 25.80% 11.33%

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

13φ? ┸? ???δ2008-2011 Ytd ε ?φА

3000

35004000450050005500600065007000750080008500J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

?劬? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

14φ??┸? ???δ2001-2011Ytd ε ?φ噉

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

J a n -01J u l -01J a n -02J u l -02J a n -03J u l -03J a n -04J u l -04J a n -05J u l -05J a n -06J u l -06J a n -07J u l -07J a n -08J u l -08J a n -09J u l -09J a n -10J u l -10J a n -11J u l -11

┲?? ?(NBSK)

┲?? ?(BHKP)

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

15φ? ┸? ???δ2001-2011Ytd ε ?φ

$/t

300

40050060070080090010001100J a n -01J u l -01J a n -02J u l -02J a n -03J u l -03J a n -04J u l -04J a n -05J u l -05J a n -06J u l -06J a n -07J u l -07J a n -08J u l -08J a n -09J u l -09J a n -10J u l -10J a n -11J u l -11

┲?? ?(NBSK)

? ??FOEX ?? ? ?ウ?

16φ? ? ??δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

400800

12001600200024002800A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11A u g -11

6#8#

9#10#

11#

12#

13#A

37#

? ??FOEX ?? ? ?ウ?

17φ? ? ??δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

A2 SoftMixed(??)UK OCC

A5?9505?A5(9010)

A9(7030)

A9(8020)

A2 SoftMixed(??)

? ??? ???? ? ?ウ?

18φ ? ??δ2007-2011 Ytd ε

?φА

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2400

11#

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

? ??

11 1-7 ? ??6370з ??? ? ?10.84%? ??? ?2010 ? ????10036з ? ? 6.89%???09 ? ?11.89%?

11 1-7 ????1305з ??? ? ?1.08%? ??2010 ?? ????? ? ?? ????2036з ? ??15.38%?09 ?л?6.02%??

19φ ?ф? ??

?φ

н 0

20004000600080001000012000F e

b -07A p r -07J u n -07A u g -07O

c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11

-20%

-10%0%10%20%30%40%??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? 20φ????

?φн

50010001500

20002500O c

t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11

-20%

0%20%

40%60%??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? ??? ?? ??

?ф???

11 1-7 ? ? ? ?л?2.46%?? ? 6 ? ?? ?仍 ? ?11.82%?2010 ? ? ?? ??331з ?о ?09 л?5.97%??? ???仍?36.96?? ? ? ?17.50%?09 ?л?10.75%??

21φ? ? ? ?

?φ

н 0

50100150200250300350400450

J a n -07A p r -07J u l -07O c t -07J a n -08A p r -08J u l -08O c t -08J a n -09A p r -09J u l -09O c t -09J a n -10A p r -10J u l -10O c t -10J a n -11A p r -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%? ??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? 22φ? ? ? ?仓

?φ

USD mn

5001000150020002500300035004000J a n -07A p r -07J u l -07O c t -07J a n -08A p r -08J u l -08O c t -08J a n -09A p r -09J u l -09O c t -09J a n -10A p r -10J u l -10O c t -10J a n -11A p r -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%? ??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

11 1-7 ??? ? ? ?25.15%?? ?仍 ? 40.91%? ???л??2010 ? ??伎?? ??? ? ? ?? ??1137з ? ?л?16.89%?? ???仍?88.18?? ? ? ?28.85%?

23φ??? ?

?φ

н 0

2004006008001000120014001600J a

n -07M a r -07M a y -07J u l -07S e p -07N o v -07J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? 24φ??? ?仓

?φ

USD mn

1000

2000300040005000600070008000900010000J a n -07M a r -07M a y -07J u l -07S e p -07N o v -07J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

? ?

11 1-7 ? ? ? ?23.18%? ?仍 ? ?34.85%? ??? к ?2010 ? ?? ??380з ? ???仍?37.91?? ? ?4.97% 20.89%, ?? ??

25φ? ? ?

?φ

н 0

50100150200250300350400450

F e b -07M a y -07A u g -07N o v -07F e b -08M a y -08A u g -08N o v -08F e b -09M a y -09A u g -09N o v -09F e b -10M a y -10A u g -10N o v -10F e b -11M a y -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60% ??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? 26φ? ? ?仓

?φ

USD mn

5001000150020002500300035004000F e b -07M a y -07A u g -07N o v -07F e b -08M a y -08A u g -08N o v -08F e b -09M a y -09A u g -09N o v -09F e b -10M a y -10A u g -10N o v -10F e b -11M a y -11

-40%

-20%0%20%40%60%80% ??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

?〃?

???2011 7 ??12.1з ? ? ?24.16%?? ? ? ??к ?к?10.53%?2010 ?л?14.59%?7 ? ??2.7з ? ? ?л?20.81%?к ? ?л?25.31%?2010 ? ? ?22.86%?

??2011 7 ??8.4з ? ? ?19.14%?к ? ? ?45.05%?2010 ? ?41.23%?7 ? ??2.4з ? ?л?7.03%?к ?л?9.96%?2010 ? ?? 1.70%?

? ?2011 7 ??11.5з ? ? ?45.32%?к ? ?47.70%?2010 ? ?7.83%?7 ? ??7.3з ? ?л?1.05%?к ? ?11.66%?2010 ? ? ?8.36%?

27φ??? ?

?φ

н 0.00

2.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ? 28φ???? ?

?φн

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%?

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

29φ ?? ?

?φ

н 0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-100%

-50%0%50%100%150%

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

30φ ??? ?

?φн

0.00

0.501.001.502.002.503.003.504.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%160%?

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

31φ? ? ?

?φ

н 0.00

2.004.006.008.0010.0012.0014.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-80%

-60%-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%100%

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ? 32φ? ?? ?

?φн

0.00

2.004.006.008.0010.0012.00J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11

-60%

-40%-20%0%20%40%60%80%?

? ???ъ???? ? ?ウ?

?? ???? ????

2009 3 ?? ? CAD ?BRL ?INR ? н ? ??3 а?? ?21.40%?37.14% 30.47%???о2009 3 л ? ? ?? а??? ??2009 3 ? ? ???к? ??? ?? ? ? ??2010 ?? ? ? ??? ? ? ????? ? ?? ? ? ? ?? ?? USD ? ?? EUR ?BRL ?INR ?? ?6

?? ???? ? っ ?7 ?? ?CAD ? ?? ? ?8 ?? ???? ? а ? ? ? ?? ???? ? ?а ? ?

33φ?? ?? ? δ2007-2011Ytd ε

-40.00%

-30.00%-20.00%-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%20.00%30.00%J a n -07M a r -07M a y -07J u l -07S e p -07N o v -07J a n -08M a r -08M a y -08J u l -08S e p -08N o v -08J a n -09M a r -09M a y -09J u l -09S e p -09N o v -09J a n -10M a r -10M a y -10J u l -10S e p -10N o v -10J a n -11M a r -11M a y -11J u l -11S e p -11

USD/CNY

CAD/CNY

BRL/CNY

INR/CNY

EUR/CNY

?? ? ?

?? ?? ?

?? ?

? ??Bloomberg ?? ? ?ウ?

???2007 1 1 ?

?3φ?? ?? ж?

? USD/CNY CAD/CNY BRL/CNY INR/CNY EUR/CNY 2007 1 1 ?? -18.28% -3.74% 5.42% -13.74% -13.97% ?2007 11 7 -4.77% 20.79% 16.89% -5.60% 5.75% 2007 11 7 ?? -14.18%

-20.30%

-9.81% -8.62%

-18.65%

2008 8 ?? -6.65% -3.21% -12.00% -0.90% -16.65% 2009 3 ?? -6.69% 21.40%

37.14%

30.47% 3.05%

? ??Bloomberg ?? ? ?ウ?

???2007 1 1 ?

?? ? ?

11 1-7 FAI ? ?32.19%??1-6 ? ? ?7 FAI ? ?41.92%?2010 ??FAI ? ?8.47%? ???09

? ?21.20%????? ?? ?? ? ??23.80%??

34φFAI ?? δ2003-2011 Ytd ε

?φRMB mn

20000

400006000080000100000120000140000

160000F e b -03A p r -03J u n -03A u g -03O c t -03D e c -03F e b -04A p r -04J u n -04A u g -04O c t -04D e c -04F e b -05A p r -05J u n -05A u g -05O c t -05D e c -05F e b -06A p r -06J u n -06A u g -06O c t -06D e c -06F e b -07A p r -07J u n -07A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11

-20%

0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140% ??

?? ?

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

35φFAI δ2003-2011 Ytd ε

?φRMB mn

5000

10000150002000025000F e b -03A p r -03J u n -03A u g -03O c t -03D e c -03F e b -04A p r -04J u n -04A u g -04O c t -04D e c -04F e b -05A p r -05J u n -05A u g -05O c t -05D e c -05F e b -06A p r -06J u n -06A u g -06O c t -06D e c -06F e b -07A p r -07J u n -07A u g -07O c t -07D e c -07F e b -08A p r -08J u n -08A u g -08O c t -08D e c -08F e b -09A p r -09J u n -09A u g -09O c t -09D e c -09F e b -10A p r -10J u n -10A u g -10O c t -10D e c -10F e b -11A p r -11J u n -11

-20%

0%20%40%60%80%100%120%140%

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

? ?

???ъ2011 5 ??2511? ? ? ?? 2 ?17.20% ??16.15%?1-7 ??3691? ? ?7 ?? ??? ????? ???っ?? ?? 6 ?13.30%??л??12.39%? ????6.58%?????л??к ????6.60%?? 5 ? 仍?119? ?? ?л? ? 仍 ?л?8.55%? 7 ? 仍?180? ?

?4φ??? δ?? ε ?

?φ?н

亯??? 2 5 8 11 2 5 8 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 ? ? 54,982 161,723 276,339 399,766 71,671216,144361,283516,17983,997138,551192,190 251,055 311,622369,086? ??

-8.07% -7.76% -4.48% 0.70% 30.35%33.65%30.74%29.12%17.20%

- 16.15% -

? ? 49,261 142,313 240,995 346,085 61,991188,545313,111446,72173,578121,029167,738 219,640 270,163323,373? ? ?? ? 219 608 1,064 1,570 284 796 1,2822,016346 560 750 1,087 1,2761,522? ??1,511 4,082 6,885 9,730 1,8335,1058,31411,7101,9282,9634,141 5,364 6,5417,757? ??1,173 3,264 5,484 7,856 1,3313,8066,4888,9861,6462,7543,752 4,843 5,9566,955????1,736 4,651 7,940 11,378 2,1675,8419,65113,9522,5243,7935,179 6,663 8,0629,571 ? 仍1,429 6,273 12,981 21,005 3,894

13,052

20,565

29,939

3,593

6,5459,130 11,936 15,45718,034 ? ??-52.93% -40.29% -27.61% -7.96% 172.54%108.06%58.43%42.53%-7.73%

-8.55%

? ?10.40% 12.00% 12.79% 13.43% 13.51%12.77%13.33%13.46%12.40%12.65%12.72% 12.51% 13.30%12.39% ????

8.04% 7.42% 7.35% 7.25% 7.44%

6.82%

6.77%

6.71%

7.26%

6.86%

6.80% 6.72% 6.60%

6.58%

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

?5φ??? δ ε ?

?φ?н

亯? 2

3-5 6-8 9-11 2

3-5 6 7 ? ? 54,982 106,742 114,616 123,42771,671 144,473145,139154,89783,997 167,058 60,56757,464? ??-8.07% -7.60% 0.56% 14.61%30.35% 35.35%26.63%25.50%17.20% 15.63%

? ?

49,261 93,052 98,682 105,089

61,991 126,554

124,566

133,611

73,578 146,062 50,523

53,210

? ? ?? ? 219 389 456 506 284 512 486 734 346 741 189 246 ? ??1,511 2,570 2,804 2,845 1,833 3,271 3,209 3,396 1,928 3,436 1,1771,216? ??1,173 2,092 2,220 2,372 1,331 2,475 2,682 2,499 1,646 3,197 1,113999 ????1,736 2,915 3,289 3,439 2,167 3,674 3,810 4,302 2,524 4,139 1,3991,509 ? 仍1,429 4,845 6,707 8,024 3,894 9,158 7,513 9,374 3,593 8,343 3,5212,577 ? ??-52.93% -35.15% -9.68% 64.13%172.54%

89.04%

12.01%16.82%-7.73% -8.90%

? ?10.40% 12.83% 13.90% 14.86%

13.51% 12.40%

14.17%13.74%

12.40% 12.57% 16.58%

7.40% ????

8.04% 7.10% 7.25% 7.01% 7.44% 6.52% 6.68%

6.58%

7.26% 6.45% 6.09%

6.48%

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

?6φ ??? ?

亯?2 5 8 11 2 5 8 11 2 3 4 5 6 7 ? ??? 2.75% 2.52% 2.49% 2.43% 2.56% 2.36% 2.30% 2.27% 2.30% 2.14% 2.15% 2.14% 2.10% 2.10%? ??? 2.13% 2.02% 1.98% 1.97% 1.86% 1.76% 1.80% 1.74% 1.96% 1.99% 1.95% 1.93% 1.91% 1.88%?????

3.16% 2.88% 2.87% 2.85% 3.02%

2.70%

2.67%

2.70%

3.00%

2.74%

2.69% 2.65% 2.59%

2.59%

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

36φ? ?? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε ?φ

RMB mn

100,000

200,000300,000400,000500,000600,000F e

b -07M a y -07A u g -07N o v -07F e b -08M a y -08A u g -08N o v -08F e b -09M a y -09A u g -09N o v -09F e b -10M a y -10A u g -10N o v -10F e b -11M a y -11

-15%

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%? ?

? ??

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ? 37φ ? 仓?? δ2007-2011 Ytd ε ?φ

RMB mn

5,000

10,00015,00020,00025,00030,00035,000F e b -07M a y -07A u g -07N o v -07F e b -08M a y -08A u g -08N o v -08F e b -09M a y -09A u g -09N o v -09F e b -10M a y -10A u g -10N o v -10F e b -11M a y -11

-100%

-50%0%50%100%150%200% ? 仍

? ??

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

38φ??∑ ?ф ????δ2007-2011 Ytd

6%7%8%9%10%11%12%13%14%15%F e b -07M a y -07A u g -07N o v -07F e b -08M a y -08A u g -08N o v -08F e b -09M a y -09A u g -09N o v -09F e b -10M a y -10A u g -10N o v -10F e b -11M a y -11

? ?

????

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

39φ ∑ ?ф ????δ2007-2011 Ytd

7%9%11%13%15%17%07 2 07 3-5 07 6-8 07 9-11 08 2 08 3-5 08 6-8 08 9-11 09 2 09 3-5 09 6-8 09 9-11 10 2 10 3-5 10 6-8 10 9-11 11 2 11 3-5

? ?

????

? ??Wind ?? ? ?ウ?

??? ? 人?

???ъ? ? ?к⑨ ?ケ

????ъ? ? ?? ??2011/12 PE 16/14 ? ???≤ ??ъ PE 25 ???л ? ??? ? ??? ?? ≤ オ? ?? ????ъл ??? ??? ?ъ?ā? ā???? ???? ?? ? ? ?? ?? ?? /??? ??????? ?? ? ??? /???? ↓? ? ? ????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ? ?? ??? ? ?????? ? ? ? ?→ ???? ?? ??ъ ?? ?ъ н???2007 ? ??? 亴 ?? ???ъ?? ??? ??? ?ъ ?? ????? ?? ???? 2012 ??????? ?? ??? ???? ? ??? ↓ ?亴 ? ???儈? ?? н? ?

?ъ? ? ?? л? ?? ? к⑨ ? ? ? ? ???嗉 ??? ? л?1. ??ъ????亴?10 ?? ????? 儈?? л? ???儈? ? ?? ? 亩??2. 呓?ъ?亴?70з ⒋?? 亩?? ??80з ?? 45з ?亩? ? ??3. ??ъ?? ? ?儈?? ъ? ???30%?

?? ???? ? ?

о???ън ? ?? ? ? ? ?ъ ? ??? ?ф ?? ?? ? ? ?オ? ?2011 ā ??ā? ? ??? ?? ??? ?? ??? ?? ? ?? ?ъā ? ā??ъ???

??ъ? ?? ??? ?ㄎ?? ? ?嗉 ??? ? л?1.? ???? ?2011/12 PE 20/15 ??? ?? ???亴?2011/12 ? ?24%/33%??2. ????亴?й ????4-5 ?? 儈? ????亴?2011/12 ? ? 52%/69%??3. ??? ?? л ??????亸???亴?2011/12 ? ?39%/50%?4. ??? ? ? ?? ? ??? ?? ≤ っ?

? ?ъ? ?? ???? ? ?? ?? ?? 嗉 ? ???? ? ? ???? ? л?1. ????й ?? ㄕ????? ??亴?2011/12? ?47%/65%?2. ??? ?? ? ?儈??ъ ??30%?? ? ? ??? 亶?ъ ??3.喀 ?亴? 亩? ???? ? ???っ? ??? ? ?

?7φ??р ? 人??? ??

EPS δ εPE ?

〦

??δ ε???δ ε10 11E 12E 10 11E 12E

PEG PB ROE ?? ? 8.37 8.81 0.21 0.28 0.39 40 30 21 1.10 3.5 8.80% ? ? ??? 36.23 44.16 0.80 1.01 1.67 45 36 22 1.02 3.9 8.51% ? ? ? ?? 16.19 20.53 0.66 0.82 1.09 24 20 15 0.86 3.9 16.01% ? ? ??? 13.67 19.50 0.37 0.52 0.78 36 26 18 0.82 5.5 15.01% ? ? ??? 18.90 21.50 0.35 0.52 0.86 54 36 22 0.95 4.2 7.85% ? ? ?? 42.75 - 0.79 1.35 2.03 54 32 21 0.89 3.6 6.59% ? 喀 14.48 21.50 0.27 0.41 0.86 54 35 17 0.68 2.7 5.06% ? ? ? ? 17.55 30.00 0.33 0.75 1.12 54 23 16 0.63 2.3 4.30% ? ? ??ъ 9.25 19.10 0.63 0.78 1.14 15 12 8 0.43 2.5 16.94% ? ? 呓?ъ 6.10 10.66 0.56 0.67 0.84 11 9 7 0.48 0.9 8.62% ? ? ??ъ 6.72 10.79 0.32 0.60 0.67 21 11 10 0.47 1.1 5.26% ? ? ??? 26.05 35.18 1.04 1.21 1.58 25 22 16 1.08 2.1 8.28% ? ?亪?? 24.01 - 0.68 1.16 1.46 35 21 16 0.76 1.9 5.33% ? 喀 ?? 15.99 - 0.71 1.00 1.25 22 16 13 0.69 1.7 7.40% ? к?? 28.13 - 0.78 0.98 1.20 36 29 23 1.50 2.6 7.17% ? ?

25.73

1.02

0.85

0.99

1.26

3.3

13.21%

? ?? ?? ? ?ウ?亴???EPS 亴? ??? ?????????? ?????2011 9 9 ??