渠道管理-2008年中国流通渠道调查报告(英文版)(pdf21页)

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China’s Evolving Logistics Landscape

McKINSEY & COMPANY, GREATER CHINA OFFICE

Stephen Shaw and Frank Wang July 27, 2001 The authors thank the following colleagues for their contributions to this white paper: Staffan Hertzell, Diana Huang, Steven Pei, Cynthia Wang

Preface

This document is the result of an effort by McKinsey & Company's Greater China practice to assess the impact of China's upcoming accession to the World Trade Organisation on the country’s logistics and transportation sector, a sector that will play a key role in China’s ongoing economic expansion. In this white paper, we present an overview of China's logistics and transportation sector, including recent developments in the area, describe the impact of current

economic growth on the sector and outline a perspective on approaching the market in ways that increase the chances of success.

McKinsey & Company is the world’s leading international consulting firm assisting leading corporations and selected non-profit institutions in resolving complex

management challenges in strategy, organization and operations. A primary aspect of our mission is to provide objective counsel in the face of the most complex change. Those seeking specific advice relating to the topics discussed in this white paper should direct their inquiries to Stephen Shaw, a senior partner in McKinsey & Company’s Hong Kong office, or Staffan Hertzell, a senior specialist in Transport and Logistics in our Brussels Office.

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China’s Evolving Logistics Landscape

Economic reforms in China have already brought far-reaching change to many sectors of its economy. Now, it’s the turn of the logistics and transportation sector: ongoing economic growth and China’s upcoming entry into the World Trade Organisation could very well transform this currently underdeveloped sector. While growth is stimulating demand, WTO-entry promises significant spillover effects on the sector from the further expansion and opening of the economy. A rapid expansion of the sector is clearly on the cards.

Already, the Chinese government has named logistics a strategic industry and has

committed to promoting investment in a number of logistics centres across the country. Retail channels are consolidating and modernizing in the top tier cities, China’s major consumption centres, and spreading to the next tier of cities. Express highways linking the major cities are being completed and professional truckers are emerging. Seeing the emerging opportunity, newly established and incumbent service providers are aggressively moving to provide upgraded logistics and transportation services. Today, players in the sector include state-owned enterprises (SOEs), local or joint-venture third-party logistics firms, foreign entrants and emerging domestic players in manufacturing and distribution.

But capturing the emerging opportunities will not be easy. Apart from the usual

challenges of building relationships and networks, players may face policy shifts, due to social or other compulsions, or come up against local protectionism that often results in big gaps between central government policy and local practices.

Broadly speaking, players should look for opportunities in two main areas: efficient, networked transportation and warehousing services and true third-party logi stics

solutions. Those that move fast enough, have tolerance for high risk, and build on their unique strengths will eventually triumph, given the relatively basic nature of the logistics and transportation sector today.

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Logistics and transportation services have historically been provided, for a fee, by a few major SOEs with government-granted monopolies (or near-monopolies) in rail,

shipping, freight forwarding, etc. Examples of these dominant, asset-intensive players are Cosco (shipping), Sinotrans (air freight forwarding, shipping), China Post (mail and parcel post) and CMST * (warehousing and trucking). A few new local or foreign-local joint ventures have tried to offer very limited solutions to specific industries, with some IT services and coordination of basic transport services. Examples are ST-Anda (serving beverages and packaged foods companies), PG Logistics (fast moving

consumer goods), and EAS (electronics). Foreign entrants have for the most part been thwarted by the tough policies barring foreign ownership of distribution and

transportation assets, their low ability to gain true operating control of critical assets for instance in trucking, and significant local barriers.

These players and their continuing evolution are described in more detail in the section ‘Competitive landscape’. The situation began improving, even if marginally, when multinational companies with operations in China started seeking logistics solutions to manage domestic distribution and imports/exports. Third-party logistics contracts of two main types resulted. On the one hand, import/export-oriented contracts in complex assembly industries such as

electronics and automotives emerged often as part of global arrangements. On the other, local contracts to handle domestic distribution from plants to city level distributors or major retail points also developed.

All logistics customers however continue to face a number of frustrations in moving their goods to distributors and retailers. They cite five major drawbacks:

n Loss, damage or pilferage of goods: Both rail and trucking involve a lot of human

handling. In the process, goods are misplaced, damaged or stolen. Increasing

containerisation of trucks is easing the problem but about 60% of all trucks in China are still open-bed trucks.

n A lack of reliability in delivery and pick up time.

n A lack of transparency in the shipment process: In China, until goods show up at their destination, manufacturers have almost no information about their whereabouts.

n Lack of control in marketing/sales: Manufacturers relying on arms-length distributors

generally have no idea how and when an end sale occurs. With strong competition between distributors, goods can end up at unintended destinations or be sold at unfavourable prices, despite attempts by manufacturers to curb cross-regional sales and to develop and maintain brand positioning.

n High logistics costs: The lack of effective transport networks increases distribution

costs, thus decreasing profit margins. In China, transportation and warehouse costs can amount to 30-40 percent of the total costs for manufactured goods, more than 60 percent for food and livestock, and around 70-80 percent for certain chemical

products. On average, both inventory and delivery times exceed 30 days, a striking

*

China Material Storage and Transportation Comp any

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divergence from the most advanced practices. The problems are particularly acute for many over-crowded sectors in China, such as consumer electronics and home

appliances. Facing white-hot competition and continuous price wars, they are in

desperate need of logistics efficiency improvements.

For these and other players, however, relief may be at hand. Like nature, markets hate a vacuum and gathering market forces are now compelling many players (with significant encouragement from the government) to fill the gaps in China’s logistics and transportation market.

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