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The relationship between agricultural technologies and carbon emissions in Pakistan

The relationship between agricultural technologies and carbon emissions in Pakistan
The relationship between agricultural technologies and carbon emissions in Pakistan

The relationship between agricultural technologies and carbon emissions in Pakistan:Peril and promise

Khalid Zaman a ,?,Muhammad Mushtaq Khan b ,Mehboob Ahmad c ,Bashir Ahmad Khilji d

a

Department of Management Sciences,COMSATS Institute of Information Technology,University Road,Tobe Camp,Abbottabad campus,Pakistan b

Department,Management Sciences,COMSATS Institute of Information Technology,Abbottabad,Pakistan c

Department of Management Sciences,Bahria University,Islamabad,Pakistan d

Department of Economics,Preston University,Islamabad,Pakistan

a b s t r a c t

a r t i c l e i n f o Article history:

Accepted 12May 2012Keywords:

Agricultural technologies Carbon emissions Economic growth Tractors Pakistan

The objective of the study is to investigate the in ?uence of agricultural technologies on carbon emissions in Pakistan by using annual data from 1975to 2010.Data is analyzed by some econometrics techniques includ-ing cointegration theory,Granger causality test,variance decomposition,etc.The results reveal that agricul-tural technologies act as an important driver for increase in carbon emissions in Pakistan.Results indicate that unidirectional causality runs from agriculture machinery to carbon emissions but not vice versa.Agricul-tural technologies are closely associated with economic growth and carbon emissions in Pakistan.Variance decomposition analysis shows that among all the agricultural technologies,granting subsidies to the agricul-ture sector have exerts the largest contribution to changes in carbon emissions.Conversely,agricultural irri-gated land seems relatively the least contributors on changes in carbon emissions due to infertility of total irrigated land available in Pakistan.

?2012Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.

1.Introduction

In the recent years,attention has been attracted to the deve-lopment of activities i.e.,developing and implementation of stan-dards,directives,regulations,policies etc which are related to the environmental protection and implementation of the principles of sustainable development (Sobotka and Rolak,2010).The impor-tance of information and communication technologies (ICTs)has also given an equal importance to change in agricultural productiv-ity (Michailidis et al.,2011).Liu and Zhang (2011,p.74)opine that

“Agriculture informatization level is an important part of one coun-try's modernization.It is important to construct reasonable agricul-ture informatization evaluation indicator system and propose the evaluation method for promoting the agriculture informatization.”Agriculture and natural environment are closely related to each other.Atmospheric carbon dioxide is a direct factor in agricultural production,involved in crop photosynthesis,and directly affects the primary productivity of crops.Carbon dioxide emissions are the pri-mary source of greenhouse gases which have a huge impact on the

global carbon cycle and agriculture.In the agricultural production process,large amounts of greenhouse gases caused by unreasonable exploitations such as improper land use and chemical fertilizer affect climate change in turn.Agriculture is an important source of green-house gas emissions,especially emissions of a large number of CH 4and N2O.It is estimated that emissions from agricultural sources of CO 2,CH 4and N 2O account for 21%–25%,57%and 65%–80%in the total amount of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.Therefore,the process of agricultural production has a double impact;low-carbon technology in agriculture cannot be ignored (Linda,2001).Low carbon agriculture is the way of development of further agricul-ture through innovation of technology and system,transformation of new energy industry https://www.wendangku.net/doc/379330504.html,ing the methods such as reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions can realize a double win be-tween agricultural production development and ecological environ-ment protection.The direction of achieving low carbon agriculture is to develop low energy consumption agriculture,the circular agricul-tural and the organic agriculture (Kecheng,2010).

Agriculture is the mainstay of the Pakistan economy as it provides employment to 45percent population and provides input for agro-based industry.Agriculture income has created demand for industri-al products.(GoP,2011).The agriculture has lost signi ?cant growth momentum as its growth slowed down to 2.7percent in the decade of 2000s as against 4.4percent in 1990s and 5.4percent in the 1980s.The structural problems and lack of mechanization remained main impediment to growth.The trend in agriculture growth during last three decades is given in Fig.1.

Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

?Corresponding author at:Department of Management Sciences,Room No:319,Block-A,COMSATS Institute of Information Technology,University Road,Tobe Camp,Abbottabad campus,Pakistan.Tel.:+923348982744(O);fax:+92992383441.

E-mail addresses:khalidzaman@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/379330504.html,.pk ,khalid_zaman786@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/379330504.html, (K.Zaman).

0264-9993/$–see front matter ?2012Elsevier B.V.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.05.024

Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect

Economic Modelling

j o u r n a l h o m e p a ge :w w w.e l s e v i e r.c o m/l o c a t e /e c m od

The environmental concerns of Pakistan are associated primarily with the adverse impact of un-sustainable social and economic de-velopment.High population growth rate,lack of public awareness of environmental related education,mismanagement of natural re-sources,widely unplanned urban and industrial expansions are the core hard issues.These are further compounded with the rapid ur-banization.A nation with a population of 177million with an aver-age population density of 222persons per sq km,higher than many other developing countries,whose 37%people live in urban areas and 63%in rural has a high rate of migration to urban centers which has made the cities dysfunctional,overcrowded and very congested.Rapid urbanization is putting the available insuf ?cient infrastructure under enormous pressure and causing environmental debacles of great magnitude.Serious risks of irreversible damages are present due to air and water pollution,mismanagement of solid waste and destruction of fragile ecosystems (GoP,2010).

In this paper an analysis has been carried out to ?nd a statistical relationship between agricultural technologies and carbon emissions in Pakistan by using secondary data from 1975–2010.This paper does not include all dimensions and factors of the technologies-environment problem but limited to the following variables:?Green Technology (GT):The “green technology ”is a broad term for more environmentally friendly solutions.GT for that matter can be used as environmental healing technology that reduces environ-mental damages created by the products and technologies for peo-ples'conveniences.It is believed that GT promises to augment farm pro ?tability while reducing environmental degradation and con-serving natural resources (APCAEM,2010).

?Economic Growth:Economic growth is a necessary –if not suf ?cient –condition to address many of the social and equity concerns faced by societies.Environmental protection not only enhances long-term eco-nomic performance through a more sustainable use of the resource base,but can also contribute to equity:natural resource and envi-ronmental degradation (especially the pollution of fresh water,the mining of soil fertility and depletion of ?sh stocks)impacts most heavily on the poor (OECD,2011).

?Carbon Emissions:The sources of greenhouse gases (GHG)come from various sectors including transportation,industrial processes,power generation for residential consumption,agriculture and de-forestation.According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO,2006),deforestation accounts for 25to 30per-cent of the release of green house gases.The report states that most people assume that global warming is caused by burning oil and gas.But in fact between 25and 30percent of the greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere each year –1.6billion tonnes —is caused by deforestation.

The objective of this paper is to empirically investigate the in ?u-ence of agricultural technologies on carbon emissions in Pakistan.The more speci ?c objectives are to ?nd out:

i.To estimate whether there is a long-run relationship between agricultural technologies on carbon emissions in Pakistan.ii.To explores the in ?uencing directions between technologies development and carbon emissions.

iii.To compare the in ?uencing magnitude of technologies on

carbon emissions in Pakistan.The paper is organized as follows:after introduction which is pro-vided in Section 1above,literature review is carried out in Section 2.Methodological framework is explained in Section 3.The estimation and interpretation of results is mentioned in Section 4.Section 5con-cludes the paper.

2.Related literature review

The emission of greenhouse gases leads to a range of well docu-mented consequences,such as increases in the average global tem-perature,greater variation in temperatures across time,increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather-related events,and av-erage sea-level rise (IPCC,2007).The potential damages induced by climate change are manifold,in particular for developing countries where climate change is expected to have its most severe repercus-sions.Developing countries depend to a large extent on the agricul-tural sector,which is particularly vulnerable to climatic changes (World Bank,2010).Climate change may also have a negative im-pact on public health in developing countries by for example in-creasing malaria morbidity and mortality (Tol,2008;WHO,2009).Another important consequence is the increased risk of natural di-sasters,mostly in coastal areas of developing countries.Contemplat-ing these risks,climate change may also increase the likelihood of displacement,political unrest and violent con ?ict in developing countries.Developing countries,therefore,have a strong interest in containing climate change and mitigating its consequences through the development and diffusion of green technologies.The develop-ment and diffusion of technology in the context of climate change poses a formidable challenge due to the presence of a ‘double exter-nality ’(Hall and Helmers,2010).Grossman and Helpman (1991,p.16)opines that

“Firms can acquire information created by others without paying for that information in a market transaction,and the creators (or current owners)of the information has no effective recourse,under preva-iling laws,if other ?rms utilize information so acquired ”.

Acemoglu et al.(2009)argument on endogenous growth model that allows for technological change directed either towards carbon-emitting or green technologies.In a setting in which pollut-ing technologies are initially more productive,the authors show that research subsidies are needed to redirect innovation towards cli-mate change-related technologies.However,a tax penalizing carbon emissions is also needed to address the environmental externality.Their analysis suggests that policy intervention in the form of sub-sidies and taxes is needed only temporarily,although delaying the intervention is costly.

Pollution has long been understood to threaten local populations and ecosystems,but there is now a broad awareness that human so-cieties are altering the global climate through the emissions of car-bon dioxide and other “greenhouse ”gasses (Roberts et al,2003).The environment Kuznet curve (EKC)hypothesis was ?rst intro-duced by Grossman and Krueger (1993)for different environmental indicators,including the carbon dioxide emissions as well.The EKC hypothesis stated an inverted U-shape relation between various in-dicators of environmental quality and per capita income.Under

this

Decades

Fig.1.Trends in agriculture growth (%)in Pakistan.Source:GoP (2011).

1633

K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

hypothesis,carbon dioxide emission was usually explained by linear,quadratic or cubic polynomial functions of income per capita. Grossman and Krueger(1995)further studied the effect of GDP per capita on various local environmental indicators,using a random city-speci?c effect model.They found no evidence that environmen-tal quality deteriorates with economic growth.

Tamazian et al.(2009)brings out the importance of?nancial development indicators on the pollution performance.They argue that increased?nancial development can lead to more investments in environmental projects.Their empirical analysis on BRIC coun-tries(Brazil,Russia,India and China)show that increased foreign direct investment(FDI)in?ows lead to lower levels of CO2per capita emissions.However,there are studies that show that FDI in-?ows lead to environmental degradation(Cole and Elliot,2005). This nexus between FDI and environment could well mean that to attract more FDI investment in certain sectors,developing coun-tries might keep their environmental polices https://www.wendangku.net/doc/379330504.html,x environ-mental policy coupled with cost advantage could provide the ideal ground for participation in a mutually bene?cial arrangement between the host and the source countries.Polluting industries shift base to developing countries,while developed countries focus more on service sector and trade(Lucas et al,1992).This is often cited as a negative and a positive impact of trade between the developing and the developed world,from an environmental perspec-tive.Zaman et al(2011)empirically examined the relationship be-tween energy consumption and development factors i.e.,carbon dioxide emission,industry value added,agriculture value added and population growth,under bivariate cointegration technique in the context of Pakistan over a period of1980–2009.The results reveal that there is a bidirectional relationship between carbon dioxide emis-sion and energy demand,CO2to industrialization&CO2to energy de-mand.While,there is a unidirectional causality relationship between the energy demand and population growth.However,neither agricul-ture value addition nor energy demand affects each other.

Technology strategy is one of the most important aspects of any?rm's strategic posture especially in dynamic environments. Ghazinoory and Farazkish(2010)focused on adjusting a dynamic model of technology strategy development for Iranian nano-composite companies'conditions.They proposed four key environ-mental moderators which affect Chiesa's dynamic model for tech-nology strategy,and investigate these moderators'effects on the dynamic model's indicators.The results show that22indicators of Chiesa's model have changed for this case.Kurlavi?ius(2010) introduces the knowledge based agricultural decision support sys-tem.This system includes database and knowledge base modules which are used for formation of models,optimization,simulation, decision analysis and inferences in the farm model.Decision sup-port system performs the analysis of production ef?ciency,re-source reserves and shortage,and with the help of the Internet in real time provides a farmer with conclusions and suggestions necessary to increase the ef?ciency of production conforming to environmental constraints.Liu and Zhang(2011)construct agricul-ture informatization evaluation indicator system in China and?nds that this system is effective,simple and easy to use.?treimikiene and Esekina(2010)evaluate the impact of EU pollution reduction strategies on atmospheric emissions in Lithuania and to de?ne the role of EU emission reduction policies on shifting environmental Kuznets curves of EU member states and Lithuania.Zaman et al (2012)investigates the casual relationship between energy de-mand and agricultural technology factors in the agricultural sector of Pakistan,over a period of1975–2010.The results reveal that tractor and energy demand has bi-directional relationship;while irrigated agricultural land;share of agriculture and industry value added and subsides have supported the conventional view i.e.,ag-ricultural technology cause energy consumption in Pakistan.On the other hand,neither fertilizer consumption and high technology exports nor energy demand affect each others.

The lack of studies about relationship between CO2emission and agricultural technologies is incentive for writing this paper.In the subsequent sections an effort has been made to empirically?nd out the relationship between technology indicators on carbon emissions in the context of Pakistan.

3.Theoretical framework of the study

The study implies annual observations for the period of 1975–2010.The data is obtained from World Development Indicators published by the World Bank(2010).All the variables in this study and their data de?nitions are shown in Table1.It should be noted that all the data are the annual items and are transformed in to loga-rithmic values for further investigation.

The annual data of carbon emissions,real GDP per capita and ag-ricultural technologies indicators of Pakistan can be seen from Fig.2. We?nd that most variables experience a steady rise across respec-tive sample period,except real GDP per capita;fertilizers consump-tion;subsidies and other transfers and agriculture value added.

The standard hypothesis behind the environmental Kuznets curve is that emissions tend to decrease with successive higher stages of development.However,no explicit determinants of emissions other than income(output)are used in the standard models.In this study,the focus is on the relationship between environmental quality (measured by CO2emissions)and economic growth(measured by real GDP per capita)in the presence of external factors like techno-logical progress which is measured by agriculture machinery,fertil-izers production,cereal productions,agriculture irrigated land;high technology exports,subsidies,agriculture value added and industry value added.The impact of technology on environment should how-ever be more straightforward.Irrespective of developing or devel-oped countries,technological changes across any line of production should lead to lower emissions per unit of output.Since pollutants are often considered as byproducts of production,therefore an

Table1

Variables and data de?nitions.

Variables Measurement Expected sign Data source

CO2CO2represents carbon dioxide emissions(Kt)World Bank(2010) Independent variables

RGDPPC Real GDP per capita(US$)Positive World Bank(2010) TRACTORS Agricultural machinery,tractors per100km2of arable land Positive World Bank(2010) FERTILIZERS Fertilizer consumption(%of fertilizer production)Positive World Bank(2010) CEREALS Land under cereal production(hectares)Positive World Bank(2010) ALAND Agricultural irrigated land(%of total agricultural land)Positive World Bank(2010) HTEXPORTS High-technology exports(current US$)Positive World Bank(2010) SUBSIDIES Subsidies and other transfers(%of expense)Positive World Bank(2010) AVADDED Agriculture,value added(%of GDP)Positive World Bank(2010) IVADDED Industry,value added(%of GDP)Positive World Bank(2010)

Note:Dependent variable in each model is CO2,and all variables are transformed in to the logarithmic items.

1634K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling29(2012)1632–1639

ef ?cient production process should have limited byproducts in the chain of the production process.

The following Fig.3highlights in schematic fashion the methodo-logical approach adopted in the paper.According to this framework,carbon emissions have been checked on GDP through agricultural technologies indicators.

Following eight equations (Panel A to H)are used to assess carbon emissions as a result of technology indicators in Pakistan i.e.,PanelA :CO 2;TRACTORS ;RGDPPC e1TPanelB :CO 2;FERTILIZERS ;RGDPPC e2TPanelC :CO 2;CEREALS ;RGDPPC e3TPanelD :CO 2;ALAND ;RGDPPC e4TPanelE :CO 2;HTEXPORTS ;RGDPPC e5TPanelF :CO 2;SUBSIDIES ;RGDPPC e6TPanelG :CO 2;AVADDED ;RGDPPC e7TPanelH :CO 2;IVADDED ;RGDPPC

e8T

whereCO 2represents Carbon dioxide Emissions (Kt);RGDPPC represent Real GDP per capita (US $);TRACTORS represent agricultur-al machinery,tractors per 100sq.km of arable land;FERTILIZERS

represent fertilizer consumption (%of fertilizer production);ALAND represent land under cereal production (hectares);ALAND represent agricultural irrigated land (%of total agricultural land);HTEXPORTS represent high-technology exports (current US$);SUBSIDIES repre-sent subsidies and other transfers (%of expense);AVADDED repre-sent agriculture,value added (%of GDP)and IVADDED represent industry,value added (%of GDP).3.1.Econometric framework of the study

The test for co-integration consists of two steps:?rst,the indi-vidual series are tested for a common order of integration.If the se-ries are integrated and are of the same order,it implies co-integration.Dickey and Fuller (1979,1981)devised a procedure to formally test for non-stationarity.The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF)test is used to test the stationarity of the series.It analyzes the order of integration of the data series.These statistics are calcu-lated with a constant,and a constant plus time trend,and these tests have a null hypothesis of non-stationarity against an alterna-tive of stationarity.

The study adopts Johansen's Cointegration test to the series of same order to determine the long run relationship between the vari-ables.If series are cointegrated of order 1,trace test (Johansen's Ap-proach)indicates a unique cointegrating vector of order 1and hence indicates the long run relationship.In the multivariate case,if the I (1)variables are linked by more than one co-integrating vector,the Engle and Granger (1987)procedure is not applicable.The test

44

48525660646872765

101520253035

ALAND

20

22242628

3032345

101520253035

AVADDED

9.00E+06

1.00E+071.10E+071.20E+071.30E+071.40E+075

101520253035

CEREALS

0.3

0.40.50.60.70.80.91.05

101520253035

CO2

112

116120124

1281321361405

101520253035

FERTILIZER

0.00E+00

4.00E+078.00E+071.20E+081.60E+082.00E+082.40E+082.80E+085

101520253035

HTEXPORTS

22

232425

26

27285

101520253035

IVADDED

10203040505

101520253035

SUBSIDIES

4080120

1602002405

101520253035

TRACTORS

16

20242832

365101520253035RGDPPC

Fig.2.Data trend for real per capita income (RGDPPC),carbon dioxide emissions (CO2)and agricultural technologies indicators in Pakistan.Source:World Bank (2010).

1635

K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

for co-integration used here is the likelihood ratio put forward by Johansen and Juselius (1990),indicating that the maximum likeli-hood method is more appropriate in a multivariate system.Therefore,this study has used this method to identify the number of co-integrated vectors in the model.The Johansen and Juselius method has been developed in part by the literature available in the ?eld and reduced rank regression,and the co-integrating vector ‘r ’is de-?ned by Johansen as the maximum Eigen-value and trace test or stat-ic,there is ‘r ’or more co-integrating vectors.Johansen (1988)and Johansen and Juselius (1990)proposed that the multivariate co-integration methodology could be de ?ned as:CO 2eTt ?TECHNOLOGY ;RGDPPC eT

where,TECHNOLOGY represents technology indicators,which is a vector of elements.Considering the following autoregressive rep-resentation:CO 2t ?πB t

X K T ?1

πi CO 2eTt ?1tμt

Johansen's method involves the estimation of the above equation by the maximum likelihood technique,and testing the hypothesis H o ;(π=Ψξ)of “r ”co-integrating relationships,where r is the rank or the matrix π(0∠r ∠Ρ),Ψis the matrix of weights with which the variable enter co-integrating relationships and ξis the matrix of co-integrating vectors.The null hypothesis of non-cointegration among variables is rejected when the estimated likelihood test sta-tistic ?i ??n P p t ?r t1

ln 1?^λi ()exceeds its critical value.Given

estimates of the Eigen-value ^λi

the Eigen-vector (ξi )and the weights (Ψi ),we can ?nd out whether or not the variables in the

vector (CO 2)are co-integrated in one or more long-run relationships among (TECHNOLOGY,RGDPPC).

This paper investigates the in ?uence of Pakistan's agricultural technologies indicators on carbon emissions from two perspectives.One is to conduct the modi ?ed Granger causality (Granger,1988)and Johansen cointegration tests to explore the in ?uencing direc-tions between different technology indicators and carbon emissions,respectively;the other is to compare the in ?uencing magnitude of

Fig.3.Research framework .Source:Self Extract.

1636K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

different technology indicators on carbon emissions based on the vector error correction model (VECM)and variance decomposi-tion approach.

In order to undertake the modi ?ed version of Granger causality for a VAR model with 3lags (k =2and d max =1),we estimate the follow-ing system of equations:

CO TRACTORS RGDPPC 2

43

5?A 0tA 1CO 2FERTILIZERS RGDPPC 2435tA 2CO 2CEREALS RGDPPC 2435tA 3CO 2

ALAND RGDPPC 2435t

A 4CO 2HTEXPORTS RGDPPC 2435tA 5CO 2SUBSIDIES RGDPPC 2435tA 6CO 2AVADDED RGDPPC 2435tA 7CO 2IVADDED RGDPPC 2435tε1t ε2t ε3t 2

435

e9T

where A 1,A 2….A 7are the 3×3matrices of coef ?cients with A 0being a 3×1identity matrix,and εt are the disturbance terms with zero mean and constant variance.From Eq.(9)we can test the hypothesis that Pakistan's agricultural technologies scale does not Granger cause car-bon emissions with the following hypothesis i.e.,

H 10

?

a 112

?

a 212

?0

where a 12

i

are the coef ?cients of the agricultural technologies scale variable in the ?rst equation of the system presented in Eq.(9).Be-sides,we can test the opposite causality from Pakistan's carbon emis-sions to agricultural technologies scale in the following hypothesis:

H 20?a 121?a 2

21?0

where a 21

i

are the coef ?cients of the carbon emissions variable in the second equation of the system presented in Eq.(9).It should be noted that we incorporate the variable RGDPPC in to Eq.(9)to avoid the omitted variable bias when we examine the Granger causality bias when we examine the Granger causality between agricultural tech-nologies indicators and carbon emissions.

4.Empirical result discussions

4.1.Cointegration among Pakistan's agricultural technologies indicators and carbon emissions

The present study conducts the augmented Dickey –Fuller (ADF)unit root tests for all variables with regard to their stationary proper-ties.The detailed results are shown in Table 2.

The results reveal that all variables in this study are non-stationary at their level but stationary at their ?rst differences,therefore,we say all variables are I (1)series at 1%level over a pe-riod of 1975–2010.Fig.4shows the plots of CO 2;RGDPPC and tech-nology development indicators,in their ?rst difference forms,which sets the analytical framework as regarding the long-term relation-ship between the variables.

After that,we take carbon emissions (CO 2)as the dependent var-iable and each technology indicators and real GDP per capita (RGDPPC)together as the independent variables,and then the Johansen cointegration among them is tested according to Johansen (1988).From the results in Table 3,we ?nd that except high technol-ogy exports (HTEXPORTS),all other technology development indica-tors have at least one cointegration relationship with carbon emissions at 5%level.Therefore,we may say that,for the most part,Pakistan's technology development indicators have signi ?cant long-term equilibrium with carbon emissions.

4.2.Causality among Pakistan's technology development indicators and carbon emissions

Subsequently,we conduct the modi ?ed Granger causality tests by Toda and Yamamoto (1995)for Pakistan's technology development

variables and carbon emissions.The variable RGDPPC is incorporated as an explanatory variable to avoid the omitted variable bias.Results are shown in Table 4.

The results reveal that “TRACTORS does not Granger cause CO 2”are rejected at 1%level but not vice versa.The result shows unidirectional causality runs between them.However,the causality runs between CO 2and FERTILIZER;CO 2and ALAND;CO 2and HTEXPORTS and CO 2and IVADDED does not Granger cause between them via both route;there-fore,we may conclude that both variables are causality independent in nature.“CO 2does not Granger cause CEREALS ”is rejected at 1%level,however,“CEREALS does not Granger cause CO 2”is accepted.The result shows unidirectional causality runs from CO 2to CEREALS.Finally,the causality runs from only SUBSIDIES to CO 2and AVADDED to CO 2shows that both variables have unidirectional causality between them.

The results re ?ect that agricultural technologies are closely asso-ciated with economic growth and carbon emissions.In reality the development of agriculture is closely related to low-carbon develop-ment.Pakistan is an agro-based country,under the premise of large population,energy shortages and serious ecological damage the development of low-carbon agriculture still has long way to go,but it is the trend of agricultural development with great potential.4.3.Variance decomposition analysis

In order to compare the contribution extents of Pakistan's various agricultural technologies development to the change of carbon emis-sions,the variance decomposition approach is adopted over the sam-ple period.First,we take the carbon emissions as the dependent variable and agricultural technologies and RGDPPC together as inde-pendent variables,and conduct the Johansen cointegration test among these variables over a period of 36years.

The results indicate that there exists statistically signi ?cant co-integration among Pakistan's agricultural technologies variables and carbon emissions during 1975–2010.Next,we apply the variance de-composition approach based on the vector error correction model (VECM)to explore the in ?uence of Pakistan's agricultural technolo-gies on carbon emissions,and compare their contribution difference.Results are shown in Fig.5.

The results ?nd that,among all technologies,SUBSIDIES exerts the largest in ?uence,whose steady contribution level for carbon emissions changes approaches to 93.72%;while the in ?uence of HTEXPORTS;TRACTORS;IVADDED;AVADDED;FERTILIZER;and CEREALS follows,with steady contribution level of 83.51%;13.76%;6.93%;6.33%;5.29%;and 4.03%,respectively.It should be noted that the in ?uence of ALAND seems relatively the least;only about 1.92%.The results above have two important implications at least.Firstly,high technology in the core allows polluting industries to shift to the periphery (Roberts et al,2003).Secondly,foreign capital penetration and World-System position

Table 2

ADF tests for variables regarding their stationary properties.Variables Level First difference CO 20.1974(0.9684)?8.8974(0.0000)GDP

1.5024(0.9646)?5.2500(0.0000)TRACTORS 3.7768(0.9999)?3.6008(0.0007)FERTILIZERS ?0.5480(0.4724)?7.4371(0.0000)CEREALS 3.0314(0.9990)?5.2258(0.0000)ALAND

1.2746(0.9980)?6.0936(0.0000)HTEXPORTS 3.2942(0.9998)?5.1365(0.0000)SUBSIDIES ?0.5703(0.4630)?6.6213(0.0000)AVADDED ?1.8603(0.0606)?4.7861(0.0000)IVADDED

0.1861

(0.7343)

?6.6302

(0.0000)

Note:The signi ?cance probabilities for ADF test are reported in parentheses.The null hypothesis is that the series is non-stationary,or contains a unit root.The rejection of the null hypothesis is based on MacKinnon critical values.The lag length are selected based on SIC criteria,this ranges from lag zero to lag one.The statistics signi ?cant at 1%level of signi ?cance.

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K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

appear to be monotonically related to carbon dioxide emissions (Burns,et al.,1997;Grimes and Kentor,2003;Jorgenson,2007).5.Summary and conclusion

The objective of the study is to empirically investigate the in ?u-ence of agricultural technologies on carbon emissions in the context of Pakistan by using the annual data from 1975to 2010.The study ex-plores the in ?uencing directions between different agricultural

technologies and carbon emissions respectively and further is to com-pare the in ?uencing magnitude of different technologies on carbon emissions.Both objectives have been achieved with the sophisticated econometrics techniques including cointegration theory,Granger causality test and variance decomposition,etc.The results reveal that agricultural technologies have signi ?cant long-term equilibrium with carbon emissions except high technology exports.Granger cau-sality runs towards CO 2to agriculture machinery but not vice versa which shows unidirectional causality runs between them.The result of variance decomposition analysis shows that the SUBSIDIES is the only indicator,among all the technologies used in the study has

-.04

-.02.00.02.04.06.085

101520253035

D(CO2)

-0.5

0.00.51.01.52.02.55

101520253035

D(ALAND)

-3

-2-10125

101520253035

D(AVADDED)

-600000

-400000-2000000

200000

4000006000005

101520253035

D(CEREALS)

-20

-15-10-505105

101520253035

D(FERTILIZER)

-6.0E+07

-4.0E+07-2.0E+070.0E+002.0E+074.0E+076.0E+078.0E+071.0E+085

101520253035

D(HTEXPORTS)

-3

-2-1012345

101520253035

D(IVADDED)

-20

-10

01020305

101520253035

D(SUBSIDIES)

-20

-1001020305

101520253035

D(TRACTOR)

16

20242832365

101520253035

D(RGDPPC)

Fig.4.Data trends at their ?rst difference .Source:World Bank (2010).

Table 3

Results of Johansen cointegration tests.

Hypothesized no.of CE (s)Eigenvalue Trace statistic

5%

Critical value Prob.

Panel A:

None ?0.865357.553329.79700.0000Series:CO 2,tractors,RGDPPC At most 10.1106 4.221215.49470.8849At most 20.05680.2339 3.84140.6286Panel B:None ?0.881539.490829.79700.0001Series:CO 2,

FERTILIZERS,RGDPPC At most 10.2106 4.249215.49470.8824At most 20.01770.2630 3.84140.6080Panel C:None ?0.848660.990929.79700.0000Series:CO 2,

CEREALS,RGDPPC At most 10.2683 6.415515.49470.6464At most 20.02420.1464 3.84140.7020Panel D:

None ?

0.895334.498429.79700.0009Series:CO 2,ALAND,RGDPPC At most 1?0.699818.809515.49470.0127At most 20.0356 1.2331 3.84140.2668Panel E:None

0.322018.727129.79700.5127Series:CO 2,

HTEXPORTS,RGDPPC At most 10.1474 5.512515.49470.7522At most 20.00260.0901 3.84140.7639Panel F:

None ?0.942374.325129.79700.0000Series:CO 2,SUBSIDIES,RGDPPC At most 10.3740 2.622715.49470.9813At most 20.01280.0052 3.84140.9415Panel G:

None ?0.872944.484929.79700.0000Series:CO 2,AVADDED,RGDPPC At most 10.2694 2.706115.49470.9786At most 20.01750.2585 3.84140.6111Panel H:

None ?0.864256.324529.79700.0000Series:CO 2,IVADDED,RGDPPC

At most 10.20147.285415.49470.1287At most 2

0.0132

0.2845

3.8414

0.5899

Note:Dependent variable in each Johansen cointegration test is CO 2.

?Denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 5%level.

Table 4

Causality test results among agricultural technologies indicators and carbon emissions.Null Hypothesis

Chi-square statistic

Prob.CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in TRACTORS 2.125890.3489TRACTORS does not Granger cause the changes in CO 214.77990.0006CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in FERTILIZERS

0.70870.7016FERTILIZERS does not Granger cause the changes

in CO 2

0.67210.7146CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in CEREALS

13.45260.0012CEREALS does not Granger cause the changes in CO 2 2.05470.3579CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in ALAND 3.10710.2115ALAND does not Granger cause the changes in CO 2 2.93380.2306CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in HTEXPORTS

3.62360.1634HTEXPORTS does not Granger cause the changes

in CO 2

3.10060.2122CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in SUBSIDIES

1.94440.3782SUBSIDIES does not Granger cause the changes in CO 2 6.85320.0325CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in AVADDED

2.58380.2747AVADDED does not Granger cause the changes in CO 28.96460.0113CO 2does not Grange cause the changes in IVADDED 4.15680.1251IVADDED does not Granger cause the changes in CO 2 1.0113

0.6031

Note:The modi ?ed Granger causality test approach used in the table is provided by Toda and Yamamoto's (1995).And the causality tests between agricultural technologies indicators and carbon emissions are based on the signi ?cance of Chi-square statistics for Wald tests of VAR models in Eq.(1).

1638K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

exerts the largest share to in ?uence changes in carbon emissions i.e.,93.72%.Subsequently,HTEXPROTS;TRACTORS;IVADDED;AVADDED;FERTILIZERS and CEREALS follow their in ?uences to changes in car-bon emissions according to their share percentages.The in ?uence of agriculture irrigated land (ALAND)seems relatively the least contri-bution on changes in carbon emissions i.e.,1.92%.

In a word,when Pakistan's future carbon emissions demand is pro-jected,the change of agricultural technologies development should be taken into account;or else,further development in Pakistan's agricul-ture industry may increase emissions in a way that has not been accounted for,which makes it more dif ?cult for Pakistan to meet its planned emissions reductions targets.References

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Variance Decomposition of CO2 (%)

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1639

K.Zaman et al./Economic Modelling 29(2012)1632–1639

amongbetween的区别用法全

among between为近义词,皆可表示“在……之间”,但用法大不相同,现归纳比较如下: 一、among一般用于三者或三者以上的“在……中间”,其宾语通常是一个表示笼统数量或具有复数意义的名词或代词。 His house is hidden among the trees. 他的房子隐藏在树林之中。 She sat among the children. 她坐在孩子们中间。 二、between一般指两者之间,其宾语往往是一个具体数目的人(物),或者是由and连接的两个具体的人(物)。 There was a fight between the two boys. 这两个男孩间发生了一场格斗。 I am sitting between my parents. 我正坐在我父母中间。 三、把两者以上的为数不多的人或事物单独地看待,用and连接时,要用between;把两者以上的人或事物看成一群、一堆或一组而不是个体时,要用among。 Switzerland lies between France,Italy,Austria and Germany. 瑞士位于法国、意大利、奥地利和德国之间。 The old man’s cottage lies among the trees. 老人的小木屋在树林中。 四、between也可用于三者以上的事物之间,强调一物与数物之间的关系。 The small village lies between the three mountains.

小村庄位于三座大山之间。 I saw something lying between the wheels of the train. 我看见火车轮子之间有什么东西。 五、涉及人或事物之间的区别以及人或事物之间的关系时,一般要用between。 We must find out the difference between the three companies. 我们必须查清这三家公司之间的区别。 The relations between various countries are very important. 各国之间的关系是很重要的。 六、表示“由于……合作的结果”时,要用between。 Between them they landed the fish. 他们协力把鱼拖上了岸。 Between the five companies the project was soon completed. 在五家公司的齐心协力下,这项工程不久就完成了。 七、当and连接三者或三者以上的人(物)而仍然强调两者的并列时,常用between。 The hospital lies between a river and hills. 医院坐落在一条河与群山之间。 The park lies between a road and the woods. 公园位于一条马路与树林之间。 八、在divide,share等表示“分享”之类的动词之后。若接一个表示三者或三者以上的复数名词时,用among或between均可。 The father divided his money among/between his three sons。

四年级一件难忘的事400字作文【五篇】

四年级一件难忘的事400字作文【五篇】 四年级一件难忘的事400字精选作文篇一 在童年里有许许多多的事情就像在海滩上捡贝壳,有绚烂的笑,是开心的往事;有黯淡的,像是勾起一段伤心的往事,都使我非常难忘。 早晨,风和日丽,我去帮妈妈和爸爸买早餐,等我去到早餐店,我发现早餐店旁有一大群人,我带着好奇心走去,让我大吃一惊,我发现那有一位老奶奶绊倒在地上。 我心想:为什么一位老奶奶搬绊倒在地上,但每一个人都无动于衷,还围观老奶奶,真是不尊重老人!我气得暴跳如雷,我就问我旁边的大人:“你们为什么不扶老奶奶”那人就说:“因为最近在新闻里,有很多老人成心绊倒在地上让路人扶起她。”谁知老人就说:扶起他的人是推他的人。老人还说:赔我钱。我听完就有一点不敢拉老奶奶了。 这时,一位青年人走过来,马上扶起老奶奶,旁边的人说,那个青年人真笨,青年人就说:“难道金钱比生活还重要吗?”青年人问奶奶要紧吗?奶奶说,不要紧,谢谢你,小伙子。青年人就说不用谢,说完就走了,我看到青年人的身影,我觉得很惭愧。 这一件事使我非常难忘,假如社会的人都献出一点爱心,那么社会就是充满爱心的。

四年级一件难忘的事400字精选作文篇二 每一个人都有自己最难忘的事,我最难忘的事就是三年级那次集体打连响儿。 记得那一次我们拿着漂亮的连响儿,排着整齐的队伍,伴随着美好的音乐,踏着坚决的步伐,熟练地打了起来。 看到这样整齐划一的队伍,我不由心生骄傲:看来我的努力还是没有白费呀!但放眼又一望,我们四周可以说是人山人海,有无数双眼睛正盯着我们,我心里不知从哪里来了一种莫名的紧张,我头上冒着冷汗,腿不由的发着抖。就在这一霎时,我做错了一个动作,登时,我感觉所有人的目光都投向了我一个人,我这颗本来就不平静的心,现在显得更加紧张了、更加不安了,我一下子都不知该干什么了,我真想有一个洞,让我钻到洞里去,我以前打的是那么灵敏,可现在却有气无力,仿佛有一个小精灵把我这活泼的精神给夺走了,经过漫长的煎熬,我好不容易才等到了结束的那一刻。 我回家把这件事告诉我妈妈,妈妈说:想做好一件事就要加倍的努力,不要认为自己会做了就可以了,妈妈的这次教导,将使我一生受益。 四年级一件难忘的事400字精选作文篇三 我家有各种各样的陶瓷器皿,比如:碗,花瓶,勺子,水杯等。它们形态各异,五彩缤纷。它们站在一起,仿佛都在展示自己曼妙的

人教版四年级(上册)数学专项训练

人 教 版 四年级(上册) 数 学 基 础 知 识 专 项 训 练

人教版四年级上册数学基础知识填空题专项训练 1、由5个千万、4个万、8个十和9个一组成的数是(),读作(),取近似值到万位约是()。 2、406000000读作(),这个数中的6在()位上,表示(),改写成用万作单位是()。 3、一周角=()平角=()直角。 4、367÷23把23看作()来试商比较方便。 5、下午3:00时针和分针夹成的最小角是()度。 6、在数位顺序表中,从右起第四位是()位,这个数的计数单位是(),如果这个数位上的数字是8,8表示()。 7、5个一百万、4个十万、2个千和4个一组成的数是()。读作(),它有()个计数单位。 8、在9、8中间添()个0,这个数才是九千万零八。 9、一个数加上2的和比最小的五位数多1,这个数减2是( 10、在数位顺序表中,从右起第四位是()位,这个数的计数单位是(),如果这个数位上的数字是8,8表示()。 11、5个一百万、4个十万、2个千和4个一组成的数是()。读作(),它有()个计数单位。 12、在9、8中间添()个0,这个数才是九千万零八。 13、一个数加上2的和比最小的五位数多1,这个数减2是() 14、120分米=()米 540秒=()分 72小时=()天 132个月=()年 15、计量角的单位是()。()是量角的工具。 16、角的大小要看两边(),()越大,角越大。 17、线段有()个端点。把线段的一端无限延长,就得到一条(),把线段的两端无限延长,就得到一条(),它()端点。 18、过一个点可以画()条直线,过两点可以画()条直线。 19、按照从大到小的顺序排列下面各数 88000 80800 80008 80080 ________________________________________________ 20、把锐角、平角、钝角、直角、周角按下列顺序排列。 ()>()>()>()>() 21、4293÷4口,要使商是二位数,口可以填()

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expand/enlarge one’s scope of knowledge knowledge reserve/base/storage theoretical knowledge practical skills social experience broaden one’s knowledge base promote one’s overall/ comprehensive competence accumulate experiences learn lessons from past experiences Work and experience the scarcity of employment o p p o r t u n i t i lay the foundations for career p r o s p e r i t y

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U s e f u l E x p r e s s i o n s: Words and phrases Friends and communication: mutual understanding solidify/ strengthen/ enhance/ promote communication / connection with relationship network/circle of friends cultivate/develop friendship with sb. keep steady relationship with sb. establish interpersonal networksac build up the social circle spur message transmission Knowledge and experience widen one’s outlook broaden one’s vision/horizon acquire knowledge and skills comprehensive/overall quality expand/enlarge one’s scope of knowledge knowledge reserve/base/storage theoretical knowledge practical skills social experience broaden one’s knowledge base promote one’s overall/ comprehensive accumulate experiences competence learn lessons from past experiences Work and experience the scarcity of employment opportunities lay the foundations for career prosperity immerse oneself in endless job tasks boost/augment/enhance efficiency be adept in boost one’s c ompetitiveness Health and pressure diminish individuals' leisure time drive away lassitude lighten one’s burden homework/workforce overload

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