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Affective forecasting and the Big Five

Affective forecasting and the Big Five
Affective forecasting and the Big Five

Affective forecasting and the Big Five

Michael Hoerger a ,*,Stuart W.Quirk b

a Department of Psychiatry,University of Rochester Medical Center,300Crittenden Blvd,Psych Box,Rochester,NY 14642,USA b

Department of Psychology,Central Michigan University,Mount Pleasant,MI,USA

a r t i c l e i n f o Article history:

Received 15June 2010

Received in revised form 2August 2010Accepted 5August 2010

Available online 6September 2010Keywords:

Affective forecasting Emotion Personality Big Five

Neuroticism Extraversion

a b s t r a c t

Recent studies on affective forecasting clarify that the emotional reactions people anticipate often differ markedly from those they actually experience in response to affective stimuli and events.However,core personality differences in affective forecasting have received limited attention,despite their potential rel-evance to choice behavior.In the present study,226college undergraduates rated their anticipated and experienced reactions to the emotionally-evocative event of Valentine’s Day and completed a measure of the Big Five personality traits –neuroticism,extraversion,openness to experience,agreeableness,and conscientiousness –and their facet scales.Neuroticism and extraversion were associated with baseline mood,experienced emotional reactions,and anticipated emotional reactions.The present ?ndings hold implications for the study of individual differences in affective forecasting,personality theory,and inter-ventions research.

ó2010Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.

1.Introduction

A number of philosophical theories and lay wisdom suggest that when making important life decisions,such as which job to take or which house to buy,people often seek to maximize well-being and positive emotional experiences and minimize enduring disap-pointment,regret,and other negative emotional states (Bentham,1948;Bernoulli,1954).Indeed,recent models of human decision making have shown that people often rely upon their anticipated emotional reactions as a guide to choice (Mellers,Schwarz,&Ritov,1999).Personality traits have previously been found associated with both chronic mood states as well as real-time emotional reac-tions to evocative stimuli and events (e.g.,Costa &McCrae,1980).Might these traits relate similarly to anticipated emotions?Inquiry into personality differences in anticipated—rather than experi-enced—emotional reactions has received limited attention.Further,an emerging ?eld of research examining the accuracy of antici-pated emotional reactions,called affective forecasting (Gilbert,Pinel,Wilson,Blumberg,&Wheatley,1998),highlights that antic-ipated and experienced emotional reactions are far from synony-mous (for reviews,see Dunn &Laham,2006;Hoerger,2007;Wilson &Gilbert,2003).In fact,some individual difference vari-ables related to coping have shown different patterns of correla-tions with anticipated versus experienced emotional reactions (Hoerger,Quirk,Lucas,&Carr,2009).The present investigation was designed to build upon past research ?ndings linking neurot-icism and extraversion to experienced emotional reactions (Costa &McCrae,1980;Larsen &Ketelaar,1991;Rusting &Larsen,1997;Tellegen,1985)by also examining whether these traits dem-onstrate a similar pattern of correlations with anticipated emo-tional states.

Researchers have begun to examine factors in?uencing human decision making by testing mathematically models characterizing choice behavior (for a review,see Mellers et al.,1999).Among these models,subjective expected pleasure theory (Mellers et al.,1999)has curried favor in recent years due to rich theoretical development and robust empirical support (Kermer,Driver-Linn,Wilson,&Gilbert,2006;Mellers,2000;Mellers &McGraw,2001;Mellers,Schwarz,Ho,&Ritov,1997).In their work,Mellers and col-leagues have distinguished experienced emotions ,those felt in the here-and-now,from anticipated emotions ,or those we expect to experience in response to future events.Their work shows that people regularly use their anticipated emotional reactions as a guide to choice.Individual difference variables have received little attention in these mathematical models.

Yet,a wealth of research indicates that personality is intricately linked to emotional experience.The Big Five model of personality has gained extensive support during the past half century and characterizes personality along the dimensions of neuroticism,extraversion,openness to experience,agreeableness,and conscien-tiousness (for a review,see John &Srivastava,1999).In this body of research,there is a well-documented association between neurot-icism and negative affectivity;extraversion and positive affectivity (Costa &McCrae,1980;Larsen &Ketelaar,1991;Rusting &Larsen,1997;Tellegen,1985).However,the reason for these relationships

0191-8869/$-see front matter ó2010Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.paid.2010.08.007

*Corresponding author.Tel.:+19896001865;fax:+15852731117.

E-mail address:Michael_Hoerger@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/9617460456.html, (M.Hoerger).

is less straightforward than one might expect.As Larsen and Prizmic-Larsen(2006)p.340,explain,emotional experiences are complex and can be characterized as‘‘hybrid phenomena”,consist-ing of two components:(a)an emotional set-point or chronic mood state that is relatively stable over time,and(b)emotional reactivity to affective stimuli and events.At any given point in time,an individual’s emotional state is,thus,the byproduct of their chronic mood state and their acute emotional reactions to recent events.Is personality related to individual differences in chronic mood,emotional reactions,or both?A few studies have shown that neuroticism predicts both greater levels of chronic negative affect and increased negative reactivity to distressing stimuli,whereas extraversion is associated with better chronic mood and positive reactivity;effect sizes are typically in the small to modest range (Canli et al.,2001;Gross,Sutton,&Ketelaar,1998;Lerner& Keltner,2000;Zelenski&Larsen,2001).These studies demonstrate a clear link between personality and emotional experience; however,it remains an open question whether the same trait differences extend to anticipated emotional reactions.

Recent research on affective forecasting,for example,has repeatedly shown that anticipated and experienced emotional reactions are remarkably discordant.In affective forecasting stud-ies,participants may be asked to predict their emotional reactions to a future event or stimulus,and then report on their actual reactions to the event after it occurs.Studies have examined anticipated and experienced emotional reactions to a variety of events and stimuli,including election outcomes,football games, cash prizes,meals,housing assignments,tenure decisions,roman-tic breakups,?nal course grades,video clips,missed train depar-tures,and holidays(for reviews,see Dunn&Laham,2006; Hoerger,2007;Wilson&Gilbert,2003).These forecasting studies have shown that people are biased in making both random and systematic errors when anticipating their future emotional states. For example,the correlation between anticipated and experienced emotional reactions within the context of forecasting studies is typically quite small(Wilson&Gilbert,2003).Further,various attentional biases(Sevdalis&Harvey,2009;Wilson,Wheatley, Meyers,Gilbert,&Axsom,2000)and the tendency to overlook fu-ture coping strategies(Gilbert et al.,1998;Hoerger,Quirk,Lucas, &Carr,in press;Hoerger et al.,2009)lead people to systemati-cally overpredict the intensity and duration of emotional reac-tions to future events.Given this level of divergence between anticipated and experienced reactions,it is worth examining whether the link between personality and affectivity extends to anticipated emotional reactions.

Surprisingly few studies have simultaneously examined indi-vidual differences in both anticipated and experienced emotional reactions.Due to the barriers involved in conducting biphasic investigations of adequate power,forecasting researchers have of-ten chosen to examine anticipated emotions only(e.g.,Sevdalis& Harvey,2009;Wilson et al.,2000,studies4and5)or rely upon a between-group design,where different samples of participants were asked to rate either their anticipated or experienced reactions to an event(e.g.,Fernandez-Duque&Landers,2008;Wilson et al., 2000,studies1and2).A recently conducted meta-analysis indi-cates that relatively few(n=14)of the70+affective forecasting studies have used a repeated-measures design,where the same set of participants provided both anticipated and experienced emotional reactions(Mathieu&Gosling,Personal communication, 2010).Aside from examining demographic differences,only two of these studies have examined how substantive individual difference variables relate to forecasting.In particular,Dunn,Brackett,Ash-ton-James,Schneiderman,and Salovey(2007)found that higher emotional intelligence was associated with greater accuracy in anticipating future emotional states.Additionally,Hoerger et al. (2009)found that effective coping styles were associated with experienced—but not anticipated—emotional reactions,meaning that effective copers overestimated how long they would feel dis-tressed after unpleasant events;these results have been replicated since the meta-analytic review was conducted(Hoerger et al.,in press).Given the real-world importance of anticipated emotions (Mellers,2000),the rapid expansion of personality research the last30years(John&Srivastava,1999),and the recent upsurge in affective forecasting research the past decade(Dunn&Laham, 2006),it is somewhat surprising that no known study to date has simultaneously examined the relationship between personality and both anticipated and experienced emotional reactions.In the present investigation,we examined the association between the Big Five and anticipated and experienced reactions to an emotion-ally-evocative event,using a repeated-measures design.Extending upon personality studies of experienced emotional reactions,neu-roticism was hypothesized to be associated with anticipated nega-tive reactivity and extraversion with greater anticipated positive reactivity,with traits accounting for unique variance in anticipated emotions over and above that accounted for by experienced reactions.

2.Method

2.1.Overview

In affective forecasting studies,an important methodological consideration is the choice of an emotionally-evocative target event perceived as important and relevant to the sample.As such, researchers have often focused on general cultural events,such as holidays,key sporting events,or elections(Wilson&Gilbert,2003). In the present investigation,we followed suit in examining affec-tive forecasting for Valentine’s Day.This holiday was chosen be-cause interpersonal events often evoke strong emotions (deCatanzaro,1999),romantic concerns were expected to be of developmental salience among the young adults constituting our sample,and prior research indicates that Valentine’s Day is subjec-tively experienced as important and known to have a variety of considerable implications for romantic relationships(Morse& Neuberg,2004).

2.2.Participants and procedures

In a within-subject design,participants rated their anticipated and experienced emotional reactions to Valentine’s Day of2006. Past research and theory guided the time frame of the study.In particular,past researchers have identi?ed that participants have a harder time anticipating their enduring emotional reactions to events—which are complicated by ambivalence,meaning-making strategies,and coping processes—than merely anticipating imme-diate emotional reactions(e.g.,Finkenauer,Gallucci,van Dijk,& Pollmann,2007;Wilson&Gilbert,2003).For example,Gilbert et al.(1998)asked participants to predict(and later describe) how they would feel one month after an election,depending upon who was victorious.Hoerger et al.(2009)examined anticipated and experienced reactions to college football games,focusing on how participants were feeling2days after the game.Pilot data sug-gested that participants’emotional reactions to Valentine’s Day would not fully subside for about5days,so in the present investi-gation,we chose to focus on participants’anticipated and experi-enced emotional states approximately2days after Valentine’s Day had occurred.

In mid-January,participants(n=251)completed phase one by providing demographic information,completing personality mea-sures,rating baseline mood,and anticipating how they would feel exactly2days after Valentine’s Day(February16).Participants

M.Hoerger,S.W.Quirk/Personality and Individual Differences49(2010)972–976973

rated how they anticipated feeling,both in the event of having a date and not having a date on Valentine’s Day.Then on February 16,90%of the original sample(n=226)rated how they were actu-ally feeling.Consistent with IRB approval,all participants were re-cruited through the departmental subject pool and completed study measures online through https://www.wendangku.net/doc/9617460456.html,.

Participants reported that they were predominantly young (M=18.63years old,SD=0.92),female(72%),Caucasian(91%), and heterosexual(98%).Analyses were performed separately for those reporting having a date on Valentine’s Day(n=145,64%) and those not having a date(n=81,36%).Participants generally knew whether to expect a date on Valentine’s Day,as82%of daters were in a relationship,and78%of those dateless were single.

2.3.Measures

2.3.1.Personality

To measure the Big Five personality traits,participants re-sponded to items from the International Personality Item Pool (IPIP;Goldberg et al.,2006),using a5-point Likert-type scale.Spe-ci?cally,the IPIP was used to generate30-item measures of neurot-icism(a=.89),extraversion(a=.82),openness to experience (a=.77),agreeableness(a=.83),and conscientiousness(a=.87), with each scale then broken down into six separate facets,used for post hoc analyses.

2.3.2.Emotion ratings

Pilot testing was used to identify six emotion words responsive to Valentine’s Day:happy,ful?lled,proud,sad,lonely,and ashamed.Baseline mood was determined by having participants rate themselves on each of the six emotions at the start of phase one(mid-January).Anticipated emotion ratings were determined by having participants rate how they expected to feel2days after Valentine’s Day,both in the event of having and not having a date on Valentine’s Day.Experienced emotion ratings were determined by having participants rate their current emotional states during phase two(February16).All emotion ratings were made using a 9-point Likert-type response scale.Each participant’s baseline mood(a=.73),anticipated emotional state(a=.77),and experi-enced emotional state(a=.78)was computed from the average of the six emotion word ratings,with negative emotion words re-verse-coded.Sometimes researchers desire to examine positive af-fect(PA)and negative affect(NA)separately;however,post hoc analyses revealed no statistically-or practically-signi?cant differ-ences in resulting effect sizes when PA or NA were considered sep-arately,justifying use of the six-item scales.

Past researchers have emphasized that chronic mood states can confound emotional reaction ratings(Gross et al.,1998;Larsen& Prizmic-Larsen,2006).Two methods for rectifying this problem have generally been suggested,involving simple difference scores or residualized change scores.Anticipated and experienced emo-tional reactions could be measured,for example,by subtracting baseline mood from the anticipated emotion ratings and from the experienced emotion ratings.Although this method can yield change scores that are easily interpretable,it was problematic in the present investigation because baseline mood correlated with change scores,a common shortcoming of the approach.Gross et al.(1998)indicated that under these circumstances residualized change scores should be used.Following their analytic approach, anticipated emotion ratings and experienced emotion ratings were regressed on baseline ratings,yielding residual scores indicative of anticipated reactivity and experienced reactivity.These residual-ized change scores were used in all correlational analyses.3.Results

3.1.Erroneous forecasts

Prior research indicates that participants make systematic and random errors in attempting to anticipate future emotional states.Consistent with prior research(e.g.,Hoerger et al.,2009; Wilson et al.,2000),participants systematically overestimated the intensity of future emotional reactions.In the present inves-tigation,daters(M=6.81,SD=1.21)anticipated feeling more po-sitive after Valentine’s Day than non-daters(M=4.84,SD=1.01), which was a large effect,d=1.83,t(224)=13.14,p<.001.How-ever,daters(M=5.94,SD=1.18)and non-daters(M=5.76, SD=1.14)did not differ in terms of their post-Valentine’s Day emotional experience,d=0.16,t(224)=1.13,p=.26.Consistent with past research,participants in the current study generally overestimated the extent that Valentine’s Day would in?uence their emotions,with daters modestly overestimating how posi-tive they would feel(within-subject d=0.67)and non-daters strongly overestimating how negative they would feel(within-subject d=0.84).

The correlation between the residualized anticipated reactivity and experienced reactivity scores was examined to determine the level of random error in prediction.Among the total sample of par-ticipants,the correlation between anticipated and experienced emotional reactivity was marginal and non-signi?cant,r=.08, p=.25.For daters,the correlation was r=.15,p=.19,and for non-daters the correlation was r=.05,p=.56.Thus,participants demonstrated both random and systematic errors in forecasting their future emotional states.The discrepancy between anticipated and experienced emotional states allowed for the possibility that each could have unique personality correlates.

3.2.Big Five correlates

Rather than exploring all30facets,initial analyses were re-stricted to the core Big Five domains in order to avoid increasing the familywise error rate through excessive multiple comparisons. The traits of neuroticism,extraversion,openness,agreeableness, and conscientiousness were compared to baseline mood,antici-pated emotional reactions,and experienced emotional reactions to Valentine’s Day.Openness,agreeableness,and conscientious-ness failed to demonstrate signi?cant correlations.Table1shows that neuroticism and extraversion had signi?cant correlations with emotion ratings,and post hoc comparisons were used to identify which facets were most relevant.

Extraversion was slightly associated with more pleasant base-line mood(r=.23),anticipated emotional reactions(r=.19),and experienced emotional reactions(r=.22).This was particularly true for the facets of friendliness,gregariousness,and assertive-ness.Cheerfulness was associated with baseline and experienced ratings,but not anticipated reactions.Findings for activity level and excitement seeking were more divergent,as they were unre-lated to emotion ratings,aside from activity level being associated with lower baseline mood.When?ndings were examined sepa-rately for daters and non-daters,the pattern of correlations for extraversion was similar,though somewhat less powerful.

Neuroticism was slightly to modestly associated with greater negativity in baseline mood(r=à.33),anticipated reactions (r=à.17),and experienced reactions(r=à.28).Among facets, depression and anxiety generally had the strongest correlations, though self-consciousness and immoderation demonstrated a sim-ilar pattern of results.For the anger facet,correlations were gener-ally weaker,and for the vulnerability facet,there was no relationship with anticipated reactions.Results were tempered

974M.Hoerger,S.W.Quirk/Personality and Individual Differences49(2010)972–976

somewhat by subgroup,in that neuroticism was related to nega-tive anticipated emotional reactions mainly among non-daters. 3.3.Unique contributions of traits

Finally,we used hierarchical multiple regression analyses to determine whether neuroticism and extraversion explained incre-mental variance in anticipated reactions,over and above that ac-counted for by experienced reactions(see Table2).If traits were associated with anticipated reactivity solely because participants could accurately foresee their later emotional experiences,then traits would not account for incremental variance in anticipated reactivity.However,the results showed that neuroticism and extraversion each accounted for3%of incremental variance in anticipated reactions.Thus,the contribution of neuroticism and extraversion to anticipated emotional reactions was unique and interesting,rather than merely a byproduct of participants being able to foresee trait variation in emotional reactions they would la-ter experience in response to the event.

4.Discussion

The present investigation was designed to examine whether known personality differences in experienced emotions extended to anticipated emotional reactions as well,particularly given the importance of anticipated emotions in shaping our existence and guiding decision making(Bentham,1948;Bernoulli,1954;Kermer et al.,2006;Mellers,2000;Mellers&McGraw,2001;Mellers et al., 1997).This investigation began by replicating past research docu-menting that neuroticism is associated with poorer baseline mood and negative reactivity to affective stimuli and events,whereas extraversion is associated with better mood and positive reactivity (Canli et al.,2001;Costa&McCrae,1980;Gross et al.,1998;Larsen &Ketelaar,1991;Lerner&Keltner,2000;Rusting&Larsen,1997; Tellegen,1985;Zelenski&Larsen,2001).The link neuroticism and extraversion share with positive and negative reactivity might have been expected to generalize to anticipated emotional reac-tions;however,recent research on affective forecasting has clari-?ed that the emotional reactions people anticipate are often markedly different from those they later experience(Dunn et al., 2007;Gilbert et al.,1998;Sevdalis&Harvey,2009;Wilson et al., 2000).As expected,participants in this study demonstrated erro-neous affective forecasts,making both random and systematic er-rors.Although there is little published research on individual differences in affective forecasting,available evidence indicates that anticipated and experienced emotional reactions can have dis-tinct correlates(Hoerger et al.,2009).Given the discordance be-tween anticipated and experienced reactions in the current study,it was possible that these types of reactions might have had different personality correlates.However,parsimony pre-vailed.As hypothesized,neuroticism was generally associated with anticipated negative reactivity,and extraversion with anticipated positive reactivity;?ndings were relatively similar across person-ality facets.Further,these neuroticism and extraversion made independent contributions to anticipated reactions,over and above both baseline mood and experienced reactions.That is,personality was not merely associated with anticipated emotional reactions as an artifact of baseline mood differences or accurate anticipation of future emotional reactions.

The chief implication of this study is that individual differences have an important role to play in the?eld of affective forecasting research.Foremost,this line of inquiry can contribute to basic per-sonality theory in suggesting possible avenues by which disposi-tional qualities impact behavior.For example,future investigators may be able to show that personality traits in?uence speci?c behaviors through some mediational role of anticipated

Table1

Neuroticism and extraversion correlate with anticipated and experienced reactions to Valentine’s Day.

Trait Non-daters n=145Daters n=81All participants n=226

Baseline mood Anticipated

reaction

Experienced

reaction

Baseline

mood

Anticipated

reaction

Experienced

reaction

Baseline

mood

Anticipated

reaction

Experienced

reaction

Neuroticismà.26**à.26**à.24**à.42**à.08à.34**à.33**à.17**à.28** Anxietyà.23**à.23**à.15 à.41**à.06à.33**à.32**à.16*à.22** Anger.00à.14 à.10à.16.01à.26*à.06à.06à.16* Depressionà.35**à.28**à.23**à.55**.03à.25*à.43**à.20**à.24** Self-consciousnessà.19*à.18**à.25**à.33**à.11à.22*à.26**à.16*à.24** Immoderationà.15 à.20*à.11à.10à.06à.18 à.14*à.14*à.14* Vulnerabilityà.17*à.07à.18*à.33**à.11à.29**à.22**à.01à.22** Extraversion.19*.12.22**.26*.16.22*.23**.19**.22** Friendliness.22**.17*.22**.18 .17.21 .22**.20**.22** Gregariousness.14 .11.24**.24*.14.26*.18**.12 .18** Assertiveness.18*.07.11.23*.08.22 .22**.16*.15* Activity levelà.20*.03à.05à.14.00à.11à.15*.09à.07 Excitement seeking.02.06.09.13.10.11.07.11 .10 Cheerfulness.34**.05.22**.20 .05.25*.27**.02.23**

Note:Anticipated reaction=predicted emotional state,controlling for baseline.Experienced reaction=post-Valentine’s Day emotional state,controlling for baseline.Positive correlations indicate that traits are associated with more pleasant emotional states.

*Statistically signi?cant at the p=.05level.

**Statistically signi?cant at the p=.01level.

Statistical trend at the p=.10level.

Table2

Neuroticism and extraversion account for incremental variance in anticipated

emotional reactions,over and above experienced reactions.

Model D R2p b t p

Neuroticism model

Step1:.01.27

Experienced reaction.08 1.11.27

Step2:.03.02

Experienced reaction.030.41.68

Neuroticismà.17à2.40.02

Extraversion model

Step1:.01.27

Experienced reaction.08 1.11.27

Step2:.03.01

Experienced reaction.040.54.59

Extraversion.18 2.62.01

Note:n=226.

M.Hoerger,S.W.Quirk/Personality and Individual Differences49(2010)972–976975

emotions,as subjective expected pleasure theory might suggest (Mellers,2000;Mellers&McGraw,2001;Mellers et al.,1997).Sec-ond,understanding individual differences in anticipated emotion has important implications for interventions research.Due to the important role of anticipated emotions in preparing for future healthcare needs(S?rensen&Pinquart,2000),handling interper-sonal con?ict in the workplace(Dane&Pratt,2007),and reasoning about political issues(Cassio&Lodge,2007),interventions de-signed to modify behaviors may need to account for core personal-ity differences in anticipated emotions.

Several limitations of this study can be noted and suggest future directions for further research.Foremost,additional evidence is needed to characterize the generalizability of the results,as ob-served effects were small to modest and tied to a university sam-ple.Given age differences in personality(Weiss et al.,2005)and in forecasting(Nielsen,Knutson,&Carstensen,2008),it would be worth examining whether the magnitude of personality differ-ences in forecasting observed in this study are relatively consistent among older adults.Also,given the relevance of neuroticism and extraversion to psychological disorders,such as clinical depression, anxiety disorders,and personality disorders,an important step for future researchers would be to examine whether forecasting varies across syndromes.Additionally,situational moderators of person-ality differences in forecasting should also be examined,given that the current study was con?ned to one particular event,Valentine’s Day.Candidate contextual variables include the emotional inten-sity of the event,the amount of social involvement,and the level of ambiguity or situational demand present(Quirk,Subramanian, &Hoerger,2007).Studies jointly examining individual differences and contextual variables will allow for the exploration of person-situation interaction effects.Finally,in addition to moderator anal-yses,mediational studies are also needed,characterizing the ways in which personality in?uences anticipated emotions,and antici-pated emotions subsequently impact choice behavior. References

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