十二五规划 英文 CEFEI
12th Five-Year Plan of China’s Chemical Fiber Industry and Acrylic Industrial Development
Zheng Junlin
Secretary General
China Chemical Fiber Association
8th China International Acrylonitrile & Acrylic Fiber Forum
12th Five-Year Plan of China’s Chemical Fiber Industry and Acrylic Industrial Development
China Chemical Fibers Association Shanghai, China March 10th, 2011
12th Five-Year Plan of China’s Chemical Fiber FiveChina’ Industry and Acrylic Industrial Development
Industry Performance during the 11th Five-year-Plan Period Five- yearMajor Influences on the Development of Chemical Fiber Industry Goals of Chemical Fiber Industry during the 12th Five-year FivePlan Period Several Issues Concerning Acrylic Industry Development
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Production during 11th Five-year Plan
Chemical fiber production has seen rapid increases. In 2010, China produced 30.9 million tons of chemical fibers, up by 85.6% from 2005 at an annual growth rate of 13.1%. Accounting for 81.3% of the total, polyester fiber production rose to 25.13 million tons in 2010, up by 97.7% from 12.71 million tons of 2005, with an annual growth rate of 14.6%. The most rapid growth came from nylon sector, which increased by 125% to 1.618 million tons in 2010 from 720,000 tons in 2005, with an annual growth rate of 17.5%.
kt 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Chemical fiber Viscose Acrylic 24139 20732 16648 12711 16075 18972 Polyester Nylon 27473 24150 20046 22044 30900 25130
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Viscose
Nylon
Acrylic
Output Value during 11th Five-year Plan
In 2010, the total output value of large-scale
billion yuan
500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 179.9 260.8
chemical fiber enterprises in China amounted to 495 billion yuan, up by 89.8% from 2005 at an annual growth rate of 13.7%.
Chemical fiber Viscose 412.1 320.6 220.4 271.9
Polyester Nylon 397 382.8
495
253.3
306 236.3
2006
2007
2008
2009 2010(est.)
The total output value of polyester increased by 70.1% from 179.9 billion yuan in 2005 to 306 billion yuan in 2010, with an annual growth rate of 11.2%. In terms of output value, polyester accounted for 61.8% of the entire chemical fiber industry. Nylon and viscose output values have been rising fast, with an annual growth rate of 20.1% and 17.6% respectively.
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Consumption during 11th Five-year Plan
The consumption of chemical fibers in 2010 is expected to reach 29.95 million
tons, up by 31.4% from 2005 at an annual growth rate of 11.4%. Chemical fibers accounted for over 70% of textile feedstock. The world financial crisis in 2008 led to the first negative growth in the consumption of chemical fibers within the past 15 years.
thousand tons 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 17460 26858 20969 23706 23259 29950
Industry Assets during 11th Five-year Plan FiveIn 2010, assets of the chemical fiber industry amounted to 407 billion yuan, up by 65.4% from 2005 at an annual growth rate of 10.6%. Nylon and viscose sectors have seen fast expansions, with an annual growth rate of 15.3% and 13.4% respectively.
billion yuan Chemical fiber 500 400 300 200 100 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010(est.) 144.4 159.2 190.8 246.1 273.6 191 226.5
Polyester
Viscose
Nylon
Acrylic 407
346.2
336.6
339
189
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Polyester Price Trend during 11th Five-year Plan FiveFrom 2005 to H1 2008, polyester fiber prices were largely stable, while H2 2008 saw a downtrend, especially in September and October. From 2009 to Aug 2010, prices kept firming up and, after a upsurge in Sep-Oct 2010, took a sky dive in November.
1Jan 2005
Acrylic Price Trend during 11th Five-year Plan FiveFrom 2006 to Q3 2008, acrylic feedstock prices were largely stable. In Q4 of 2008, especially between Sep-end and October, prices dropped sharply. March 2009 ushered in a strong uptrend which lasted for about 14 months. May-July 2010 saw downward corrections, followed by another uptrend. Prices weakened slightly in late 2010.
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Fixed Assets Investments during 11th Five-year Plan FiveIn 2010, the fixed assets investments of the chemical fiber industry amounted to 39 billion yuan, up by 121% from that of 2005 at an annual growth rate of 17.2%. In 2008, investment activities were slowed down significantly under the impact from world financial crisis, resulting in a negative growth at ﹣5.8% in 2009. In 2010, chemical fiber industry improved rapidly and saw a quick recovery in investment growth, with a year-on-year increase at 41.3%.
50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth rate Fixed assets investments（billion yuan） 17.6 27.9 20.7 29.3 27.6 39 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10%
Chemical Fiber Export during 11th Five-year Plan FiveIn 2010, China exported about 1.925 million tons of chemical fibers, a 171% increase from 2005 with an annual growth rate of 21.8%. Under the impact of world financial crisis, 2009 saw a negative growth in chemical fiber export, but the growth rate soon recovered to 28.7% in 2010.
USA 17% Others 52% Hong Kong 9% Turkey India 8%
3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Growth rate Chemical fiber export volume（thousand tons） 1050 710 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20%
1540
1710
1925 1480
Others 50%
South 8% Korea 6%
USA 13% Turkey South 10% Vietna Korea m 7% 6%
Pakista n 14%
In 2010, Pakistan became the largest importer of China’s chemical fibers.
2005
2010
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Gross Profit during 11th Five-year Plan FiveIn 2010, the gross profit of chemical fiber industry amounted to about 27 billion yuan, up by 480% from that of 2005 at an annual growth rate of 42.3%. Chemical fiber industry saw healthy profit margins in 2007, 2009 and 2010, along with sharp increases in gross profits.
Gross profit（billion yuan） 30 20 10 0 -10 2005 2006 2007 4.6 51% 16.1 7.0 8.2 -49% 2008 131%
Growth rate 150% 109% 27.0 100% 50% 0% -50% 2009 2010(est.)
17.1 58%
Profit Rates during 11th Five-year Plan
With technological advancement in chemical fiber industry, the profit rates of all varieties have been expanding notably. In 2010, the profit rate of China’s chemical fiber industry reached 5.45%, up by 3.65 percentage points from 2005. Hereinto, the profit rate of polyester industry gained 3.99 percentage points to 5.41%, and that of viscose up by 1.97 percentage points to 6.25%.
8.00% 6.00% 4.00% 1.80% 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% Chemical fiber Polyester Viscose Nylon Acrylic -2.10% 1.42% 5.45% 5.41% 6.25% 4.28% 4.20% 2.74% 1.13% 2005 2010(est.)
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Major Economic Indicators in 2010
Major Economic Indicators of Chemical Fiber Industry in 2010
Items (kt, billion yuan) Chemical Fiber Production Import Volume Export Volume Total Supply Imp. Vol. of Synthetic Fiber Feedstock Imp. Vol. of Artificial Fiber Feedstock Gross Profit of Chemical Fiber Industry Total Loss of Loss-making LossEnterprises Fixed Asset Investment of Chemical Fiber Industry 2010 30,897.0 902.3 1,925.3 29,874 15,848.3 1,198.4 25.913 2009 26,739.0 861.5 1,476.7 26,123.8 14,709.9 1,066.7 11.717 Change 15.55% 4.73% 30.38% 14.36% 7.74% 12.35% 121.16%
1.241 39.02
2.522 27.33
-50.81% 42.78%
Major Influences on the Development of Chemical Fiber Industry
The change and tendency of international macro-economic environment macroThe change in China’s domestic macro-economic environment and China’ macropolicies Increasing demand from domestic textile market Production factors — Supply/demand balance and price changes Technological advancement and structural adjustment within chemical chemical fiber industry Investment growth and newly-added capacities newly-
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Major Influences on the Development of Chemical Fiber Industry
The change in international macro-economic macroenvironment
World financial crisis Change of consumption mode in developed countries Recovery rate of world economic growth More intense conflicts in international trade Stronger tendency of global inflation
Major Influences on the Development of Chemical Fiber Industry
The change in China’s domestic macro-economic environment China’ macroand policies
Industrial Adjustment & Revitalization Planning Exchange rate adjustments Monetary policy, fiscal policy, industrial policies The 12th Five-year Plan FiveCommodity price control and regulation, etc.
Increasing demand from domestic textile market Supply/demand balance and pricing of production factors Technological advancement and structural adjustment within the industry
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Major Influences on the Development of Chemical Fiber Industry
The change in China’s domestic macro-economic China’ macroenvironment and policies
Textile Industry Restructuring & Revitalization Planning (2009-2011) (2009The 12th Five-year Planning of Textile Industry FiveMonetary policy, exchange rate adjustments, fiscal policy Related industrial policies — to eliminate out-dated outcapacities; to implement Conditions of Entry Countermeasures of inflation — Real estate and commodity price regulation and control
Influence — Price Trend of Crude Oil
Price Trend of Crude Futures (1 Jan 2010~23 Feb 2011)
Source: CCFEI
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Influence — Tight Feedstock Supply
90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% PTA 79% 70% 54% 34% 32% EG CPL AN 77% 65%
27%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
In 2010, China imported about 15.6 million tons of synthetic fiber intermediates, an 28.2% increase from 2005 with an annual growth rate of 5.1%. PTA shortage was eased by the quick expansions of domestic capacities. In 2009, the import dependency ratio dropped to 34% from 54% in 2005. Some intermediates faces greater shortage. China’s chemical fiber industry is highly dependent on EG, CPL and AN imports. In 2010, China imported 964kt wood pulp, a 13.3% increase on year, while the import dependency ratio reached 95%.
Price Trends of Chemical Fiber Feedstock
Price Trend of Polyester Chain (PTA/POY/PSF) during 2002~Feb 2011
Price Trend of Polyester Chain (PTA/POY/PSF) during 2010~Feb 2011
Source: CCFEI
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Price Trend of Chemical Fiber Feedstock
Price trend of nylon chain (CPL/PA/70D FDY, Jan 2010-23 Feb 2011)
Price trend of acrylic chain (ACN, top, staple fiber, Jan 2010-23 Feb 2011)
Source: CCFEI
Price Trend of Cotton
Comparison of cotton and staple fibers
Source: CCFEI
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Price Trend of Cotton
Price Trends of Zhengzhou cotton futures, NYMEX cotton futures and domestic spots during 1 Jan 2010-Feb 2011
Source: Green Futures
Cotton Futures vs. PTA Futures
Price Trends of Zhengzhou cotton futures and PTA futures (4 Jan 2010-12 Feb 2011)
Source: Green Futures
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Technological Progress
Remarkable progresses achieved by the industry
Single-line capacity up to 900-1,200t/d from 600t/d Single900Unit consumption down by 20% Cost down by 15% Shift from side quenching to circular one in direct spinning process Able to produce fine diner 20D/144F, dpf 0.13 On-line viscosity enhancing OnOn-line master batch adding and nanometer function OnSingle-line capacity surpassing 200t/d； Single200t/d； Diameter of polymerization VK tube >2 meters Continuous polymerization High-speed spinning (fine denier) HighEco-friendly solvent (DMAC) EcoSingle-line capacity surpassing 45kt/yr and reaching 60kt/yr SingleDPF up to 20 denier, could be blended with 120S Cone dyeing technology dyei Expanded application (medical, non-woven) non-
PET Polymerizing
Polyester Fiber Spinning Nylon Polymerizing Spandex
Viscose
Technology Progress
Development of integrated polyester complex in China during the 10th and 11th Five-year Plan 10th Five-year Plan FiveSingle-line Capacity SingleInvestment Total Unit 150-200kt/yr 150180-230 million yuan 1801,000-1,500 yuan/ton 1,00014 months 1,000~1,500 yuan/ton 11th Five-year Plan Five300-400kt/yr 300300-350 million yuan 300800-1,000 yuan/ton 80012-14 months 12700-800 yuan/ton 700-
Construction Period Operation Costs
Progress Features and Status
Homemade equipments of Homemade equipments of high capacity high capacity Low investment costs Mainly direct-spinning directHighly integrated Low investment costs Shorter progress High fineness (direct spinning, (esterification up from 600 to able to produce dpf0.3~0.5 1,200 t/d, polycondensation fibers） fibers） up from 600 to 900 t/d)
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Structural Optimizing
Optimized Industrial Capacity Structure
2005
＜50kt 24.8% ≥400kt 26.4%
2009
＜50kt 19.1%
≥400kt 31.1%
50-200kt 34.3%
200400kt 14.5%
50-200kt 33.4%
200400kt 16.4%
Structural Optimizing
Product Structure optimizing achieved great success
Differential rate of chemical fibers reached 42.7% in 2009, up by 11.7 percentage points from 2005. In 2010 the rate is expected to reach 46.5%. The proportion of chemical fibers’ application in apparel, home textiles and industrial fabrics changed to 50:28:22 from 54:27:19 in 2005 Breakthroughs had been made in R&D, engineering & industrialization of high-tech chemical fibers including carbon fiber T300, aramid fiber 1313, PPS, UHMWPE and continuous basalt fiber, etc.
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New Capacities
Many new capacities to come on stream during 2011-2014 With a preliminary estimate, there will be around 2.6 million tons of new chemical fiber capacities in 2010 There will be around 3-4 million tons of new capacities to come on stream in 2011 There will be more than 3-4 million tons of capacity increase each year on average during 2012-2014
The 12th Five-Year Plan — FiveGoals for Chemical Fiber Industry
Goals and Plans 1.Mid-to-long Term Targets in General 1.Mid- to2.Targets in Detail —— Steady and sustainable development of the industry —— Structural optimization and coordinated development in East, Central and West China ——Better utilization of resources ——Better —— Higher capability of innovation
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Major Goals for Chemical Fiber Industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan (preliminary version) Five2008 Capacity of Chemical Fibers Production of Chemical Fibers Import Volume of Chemical Fibers Export Volume of Chemical Fibers Consumption Volume of Chemical Fibers Proportion of Processed Chemical Fibers among All the Processed Fibers Differential Rate Unit Output Value (yuan/person) Proportion of Three Major Applications Energy Consumption (TCE/T) Water Consumption (T/T) Waste Water Emission (COD, kt) Waste Gas Emission (NM3) 39% 160,000 52：27：21 52： 27： 580.7 13.56 113.9 4136.3 46% 190,000 190,000 47：30：23 47： 30： 516.8 11.4 103.8 4227.3 2712 2405 82 171 2316 2950 80 163 2867 2010 2015 4657 3900 56 230 3726 3576 60% 250,000 250,000 41：32：27 41： 32： 413.4 9.1 93.4 3805 ↓20% ↓ 20% ↓ 10% ↓ 10% 6% －3% 8% 5.4% 79.5% AAGR Remark Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Estimated Targeted Targeted Targeted Targeted
Major Tasks for Chemical Fiber Industry during the 12th Five-Year Plan Five1. To promote the application of advanced new technologies in production. production. To raise the proportion of functional and differentiated fibers, and promote the application of chemical fibers in industrial area. To bring forward R&D of high-tech fibers and industry integration, as highwell as expand the application territory. To accelerate R&D and promote application of biopolymer fibers and biochemical feedstock To actively seek for opportunities in overseas market To accelerate localization of key processes and machinery To strengthen efforts in energy saving and environment protection protection To accelerate assets recombination and increase industry concentration concentration To improve standardization of the market including certification and market access systems, and improve information service for the market. market.
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8.
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Goals for High-tech Fibers during 12th Five-Year Plan HighFivet/yr
Carbon Aramid UHMWPE Fiber 1313 Goals In 2010 Completed (est.) 2015 2020 Aramid 1414 Basalt Fiber
PPS
Lyocell Industri aliza tion 2000 15000 50000
≥6000 7000 10000 150000
≥3000 5000 8000 12000
≥3000 3000 6000 10000
≥1000 3000 7000 10000
≥500 1000 4000 8000
2500 4000 6000 9000
Guiding Policies
1. To provide better political supports 2. To encourage industry innovation and upgrading 3. To coordinate development of feedstock industry 4. To maintain sound market environment for the industry 5. To improve construction of standardization system 6. To improve information service
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Acrylic Fiber — Demand
Acrylic Fiber Capacity and Demand in China during 2002-2017
Acrylic Fiber —
Import Reduce, Self-supply Increase SelfAcrylic Fiber Import during 1999-2010 Self-supply Rate during 1999-2010
80 60
Import Volume
90 80 70 60 50
Selfsupply (%)
45.845.946.5 42.3 35.337.4 33.7 40 28.1 25.7 20 0 1999 2001
81.72 79.5 77 74.04 70.25
19.64 17.996 14.6
61.79 58.18 57.92 60.83 59.16 57.44 58.41 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
2003 2005 2007 2009
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Acrylic Fiber — Consumption
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in China (2009)
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in China 3% 27%
27% 61%
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in the World (2009)
Acrylic Fiber Consumption Structure in World 12%
70% Apparel Decoration
Apparel Decoration Industry and others
Acrylic Fiber — Targets Set by the 12th Five-year Plan.
To become a world acrylic fiber production base with global competitiveness Targets in detail: To expand total capacity to 1,200kt/yr, with capacity utilization rate above 95%, and average capacity of producers above 70kt/yr To optimize the consumption structure, with proportion of apparel, decoration and industrial items at 60: 30: 10. To limit processing costs to below 3500 yuan/ton, and raise unit output value to above 1.08 million yuan per person. To improve product quality and enhance environment protection, and encourage enterprises to meet the standards of ISO14001, ISO18001 and ISO19001.
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