About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Long-term Appreciation of RMB

About Influences 0n our import and export trade and Countermeasures of Long-term Appreciation of RMB

中文摘要 :自 2005年 7月 21日起,我国开始实行以市场供求为基础、参考一篮 子货币进行调节、有管理的浮动汇率制度 ; 与此同时,人民币汇率调整为 1美元 =8.11元,升值 2%。由此,人民币在经历亚洲金融危机以来的稳定和实际升值以 后,终于拉开了正式升值的序幕。根据各方面的分析,到 2020年以前,人民币将 处于长期升值的趋势之中。众所周知,汇率对进出口贸易具有较大的影响,因为汇 率反映的是一种货币相对于另一种货币的价格,所以汇率的改变将直接传导给进出 口商品和服务的价格,从而影响到进出口数量。本文研究的范围是人民币升值给进 出口贸易带来的影响,重点研究 2007 年以来人民币加速升值对进出口贸易带来的 影响,包括正面影响、负面影响、出口、进口、进出口商品结构、贸易方式等。本 研究基于权威部门的统计数据,利用国际贸易相关理论,采用实证和分析相结合的 方法,试图全面分析人民币升值尤其是加速升值对我国进出口贸易的影响,以及面 对人民币升值应该的一些措施。

Abstract

Since July 21, 2005, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies. At the same time, RMB exchange rate adjusts to $1 = 8.11 RMB with an appreciation by 2%. Thus, after the Asian financial crisis in the experience of the stability and a real appreciation, RMB finally starts the prelude of appreciation. According to the analysis, by 2020, the RMB will be long before the upward trend. As is known, rate of exchange has great influence on import and export trade, because the exchange rate is a kind of currency reflects the relative to another currency exchange. So the change of exchange rate will directly affect import and export prices of goods and services, thus affecting

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