1960-2016年辽宁省地表温度时空变化特征及影响因素分析
1960-2016年辽宁省地表温度时空变化特征及影响因素分析Temporal and spatial variation of surface temperature and Influencing factors analysis in Liaoning Province from1960to2016
Abstract
As an important indicator of climate change,surface temperature has a great influence on the composition,structure,formation and evolution of soil.Analysing the spatial-temporal variation of surface temperature itself and its relationship with the geographical location and climate provides important scientific insights into the mechanism of interactions between land and air,the regulatory response to climate change,and the future trends in the prediction of surface temperature.Liaoning Province is located in the transition zone from Inner Mongolia Plateau to Bohai Bay.The terrain and terrain are complex,which makes the climate in different parts of the province have obvious differences.In addition,Liaoning Province is located in the seasonally frozen area,making the surface temperature change mechanism more complex.
In this paper,the daily surface temperature data materials and the meteorological elements(mean air temperature,sunshine hours,average wind speed,and precipitation)of24 meteorological stations in Liaoning Province from1960to2016are selected,and the climatic trend rate method and distribution function are used.Mann-Kendall mutation analysis, wavelet cycle analysis,empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis,and correlation analysis method were used to systematically analyze the temporal variation characteristics,spatial variation characteristics of land surface temperature and the relationship between surface temperature factors in Liaoning Province.The following conclusions are obtained through analysis:
(1)There are significant differences in the land surface temperature of Liaoning Province in different decadal https://www.wendangku.net/doc/da15452248.html,nd surface temperature was lower than the annual average surface temperature in the60s and80s of the20th century,and it was higher than the average annual surface temperature in the1990s to the21st century.Inter-annual variation with time to warm trend,the rate of change has reached0.36°C/10a,in which the surface temperature in winter warming amplitude is the largest;annual surface temperature in Liaoning Province in the mutated in1995,the test shows that the increase trend is significant. There are two time scales of30-46a and19-25a in the annual surface temperature cycle variation in Liaoning Province.
辽宁师范大学硕士学位论文
(2)The annual surface temperature in Liaoning Province gradually decreases from southwest to northeast.With time,the areas with the highest temperature increase range from eastern Liaoning to southern Liaodong https://www.wendangku.net/doc/da15452248.html,ing the EOF method to analyze the regional characteristics of surface temperature in Liaoning Province,the first eigenvector modality shows that the province has a constant trend of increasing temperature,meanwhile, the surface temperature is in the distribution pattern of high to low in the west,and the surface temperature changes most in eastern Liaoning and coastal areas.
(3)There is a significant negative correlation between annual surface temperature and longitude and altitude in Liaoning https://www.wendangku.net/doc/da15452248.html,nd surface temperature and latitude have a negative correlation between the annual and autumn winter seasons,and there is a positive correlation between latitude and temperature in spring and summer.The correlation between land surface temperature and air temperature shows a distribution pattern that is high in the west and low in the west.It is the western region of Liaoning Province.The relationship between temperature is more intense than that of the eastern region.In the relationship with precipitation,the surface temperature in the year with high precipitation is relatively low,and the effect of precipitation is most significant in summer and https://www.wendangku.net/doc/da15452248.html,nd surface temperature and sunshine hours in each season and year show opposite trends.surface temperatures in spring and summer are positively correlated with sunshine hours,negatively related to annual and autumn and winter temperatures,and annual and seasonal surface temperatures in Liaoning.The wind speeds are all negatively related.Among them,the summer correlation is very small.Considering the summer land surface temperature is mainly affected by temperature,sunshine,and precipitation,the influence of wind speed on surface temperature becomes less obvious.
Key Words：Liaoning Province;surface temperature;characteristics of spatio-temporal changes;influencing factors
1960-2016年辽宁省地表温度时空变化特征及影响因素分析
目录
摘要.....................................................................................................................................I Abstract...................................................................................................................................II 1绪论.. (1)
1.1研究背景 (1)
1.2研究目的及意义 (2)
1.3国内外研究现状 (2)
1.3.1地温的主要研究内容 (2)
1.3.2地温对气候变化响应的相关研究 (3)
1.4研究内容及技术路线 (4)
1.4.1研究内容 (4)
1.4.2技术路线 (5)
1.5数据来源及研究方法 (6)
1.5.1数据来源 (6)
1.5.2研究方法 (7)
2辽宁省区域概况 (11)
2.1自然概况 (11)
2.1.1地理位置 (11)
2.1.2气候特征 (11)
2.1.3地形地貌 (11)
2.1.4土壤分布概况 (12)
2.2社会经济概况 (12)
3辽宁省地表温度的时空变化特征 (14)
3.1辽宁省地表温度的时间变化特征 (14)
3.1.1年代际变化特征分析 (14)
3.1.2年际变化特征分析 (18)
3.1.3地表温度突变分析 (21)
3.1.4地表温度周期分析 (24)
3.2辽宁省地表温度的空间变化特征 (29)
3.2.1平均地表温度的空间分布 (29)
3.2.2地表温度变化趋势空间分布 (31)
3.2.3基于EOF分解的地表温度时空演变规律 (33)
4辽宁省地表温度变化影响因素分析 (36)
4.1辽宁省地表温度变化与地理位置的关系 (36)
4.1.1辽宁省地表温度变化与经纬度的关系 (36)
4.1.2辽宁省地表温度变化与海拔高度的关系 (40)
4.2辽宁省地表温度变化与气候变化的关系 (42)
4.2.1辽宁省地表温度变化与气温的关系 (42)
4.2.2辽宁省地表温度变化与降水的关系 (47)
4.2.3辽宁省地表温度变化与日照时数的关系 (51)
4.2.4辽宁省地表温度变化与风速的关系 (54)
5结论与展望 (58)
5.1结论 (58)
5.2不足与展望 (59)
参考文献 (60)
攻读硕士学位期间发表学术论文情况 (67)
致谢 (68)
1绪论
1.1研究背景
地温是指地表温度和地表以下不同深度的土壤温度的总称，是气候变化的重要评价指标[1]。政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）第5次评估报告内容指出，1880-2012年间全球地表平均温度增加约0.85℃，其中1983-2012年可能是此期间最热的30年[2-3]。气候变化已经对人类社会的可持续发展造成了不同程度的影响，甚至对人类的生存环境产生威胁，为此，各国政府为减缓气候变化造成的影响及损失都在积极努力加强合作。在气候的形成及演化的过程中下垫面扮演着重要的角色，伴随人类社会经济的发展，对土地使用的需求不断增加，改变了下垫面原有的状态，从而对气候造成了很大的影响[4]。在全球变暖的发展趋势下，对地温变化的关注也不断增加[5-7]，地温和气温的关系通过陆气系统影响着气候的改变，其变化会使局部的气候状况发生改变，对全球气候系统中的大气环流也会造成一定的影响[8]。辽宁既是主要的粮食产地又是老工业发展基地，地域面积广阔，内部地形地势复杂，西邻内蒙古高原，又受黄渤海海洋影响，形成许多不同的气候类型，通过对地表温度变化的研究，将会为辽宁以及全国地区的地表温度和气候变化研究提供有价值的数据，同时也对农业及环境科学化的发展对策提供基础性数据。
地温的变化会直接影响下垫面的反射率以及土壤的湿度和热量，从而对气候变化造成影响，因此，地温可以作为气候变化的衡量指标，同时也可以认为是土壤储存热量对气候变化的反应[8]。地温也是重要的农业气象参数，土壤的水盐运动以及肥力的改变均会受到地温的影响，并且土壤中的一些物理、化学及生物过程也离不开适宜的地温，与种子的萌发、生长以及水分养分的吸收和运输都有密不可分的关系[9]。另外，地温受太阳辐射和土壤热学特性共同影响，不同气候环境、季节、土壤的组成、性质及土壤利用情况都会使土壤热量的收支状况发生改变，进而使地温也发生相应的变化[10-11]。地温是一个非常重要的气候因子，太阳辐射是它主要的热量来源，同时还受到气象因素、物理因素、地形因素等诸多因素的共同影响，而影响因素间还存在着相互制约、相互影响的关系[12]，由此可见地温的变化是一个由众多因素参与的复杂的过程。
气温与地温通过陆气作用相互联系，因此气候变化必然会导致地温的变化。气候变暖会使土地利用模式及覆盖状况发生改变，影响水循环系统，甚至对生物多样性造成不可逆的破坏，从而对全球生物化学循环系统造成影响[13]。森林生态系统具有一定的稳定性，但一旦受到破坏就很难恢复，它的稳定性受土壤系统稳定性的支撑，如果地温发生变化，那么土壤的物理、化学及生物性质也会发生变化，他们的影响会直接作用于动植物，包括其分布、生长和生产力状况。地温升高会使土壤中的有机质分解，久而久之便