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Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure. evidence from Chinese regions

Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure. evidence from Chinese regions
Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure. evidence from Chinese regions

Spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure:evidence from Chinese regions

Nannan Yu a ,b ,?,Martin de Jong a ,b ,Servaas Storm b ,Jianing Mi a

a Harbin Institute of Technology,West Dazhi Street 92,150001Harbin,China b

Delft University of Technology,Jaffalaan 5,2628BX Delft,The Netherlands

a r t i c l e i n f o Keywords:

Transport infrastructure Spillover effects Economic growth Spatial Durbin Model China

a b s t r a c t

This paper examines the possibility of spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure in Chinese regions.We estimate the regional spillovers of the transport infrastructure stock by applying a spatial Durbin Model for the time-period 1978–2009,and also three sub-periods,1978–1990,1991–2000and 2001–2009.The results indicate that positive spillovers exist in each period due to the connectivity characteristic of transport infrastructure at the national level.At the regional level,transport infra-structure spillover effects vary considerably over time among China’s four macro-regions:the eastern region enjoyed positive spillovers all the time;the northeastern region had no signi?cant spillover effects in 1978–1990,negative spillovers in 1991–2000,and positive spillovers in 2001–2009;the central region had negative spillovers for the three sub-periods;for the western region,negative spillovers can be observed after the 1990s.The analysis indicates that changes in spillovers among regions are closely associated with the migration of production factors in China during the last decades.

ó2012Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.

1.Introduction

Plenty of studies have been conducted on the impact of trans-port infrastructure development on regional economic growth over the last decades,mostly aiming to examine the economic returns of transport investments in order to ?nd a reasonable investment pattern (Aschauer,1989;Munnell,1990;Ozbay et al.,2003;Can-ning and Bennathan,2007).Even though the range of the measured economic growth effects varies widely among studies,the positive relationship between transport investment and economic develop-ment is now commonly accepted (Banister and Berechman,2001;Berechman et al.,2006).However the ?nding that the impact of transport infrastructure at the regional level is generally lower than the results observed at the national level leads some research-ers to conclude that there exist signi?cant spillover effects across regions.Subsequent research has tried to con?rm this (Munnell,1992;Holtz-Eakin,1994;Cohen and Paul,2004;Cantos et al.,2005;Berechman et al.,2006;Ozbay et al.,2007).Attempts have been made to corroborate the claim that the positive bene?ts accruing from these investments derive not only from investments made by individual states,but that there are also positive external-ities from network expenditures made by neighboring states (Lall,2007).That is because some effects induced by transport infra-structure will extend outside the limits of this area,generating spillover effects (Munnell,1992;Boarnet,1995,1996,1998).

Only a few of studies have focused on ascertaining the possible existence of regional spillovers from transport capital,probably be-cause it is dif?cult to ?nd cases of countries in which its territory is divided in regions with substantial political power as the USA and Spain (Cantos et al.,2005).For the case of the USA,on the one hand,Munnell (1992)found that the impacts of highway capital became smaller as the geographic focus narrowed Thus she hypothesized that highway public capital can create positive cross-state spill-overs because of productivity leakages (spillovers),since the trans-port infrastructure has network characteristics.But Holtz-Eakin and Schwartz (1995)rejected this argument after measuring the spillover effects separately.On the other hand,Boarnet (1995,1996)hypothesized that public capital in?uences economic activ-ity Iargely by shifting that activity from one location to another,and sees this claim con?rmed in the case of the US street-and-highway capital.Considering these two arguments,Berechman et al.(2006)investigated the spillovers of transportation at the state,county and municipality levels of the USA respectively,and they concluded that the spillovers exist at the small geographic areas (at the municipality level)but that they cannot be found at the state and county levels.Ozbay et al.(2007)calculated the con-tribution of transport investments to county output using the data from the New York/New Jersey metropolitan area,and their results showed that the spillover effects decreased with distance from the

0966-6923/$-see front matter ó2012Elsevier Ltd.All rights reserved.https://www.wendangku.net/doc/fe5297555.html,/10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2012.10.009

?Corresponding author at:Harbin Institute of Technology,West Dazhi Street 92,150001Harbin,China.Tel.:+447453098837.

E-mail addresses:nyuhit@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/fe5297555.html, (N.Yu),W.M.deJong@tudelft.nl (M.de Jong),S.T.H.Storm@tudelft.nl (S.Storm),mijianing@https://www.wendangku.net/doc/fe5297555.html, (J.Mi).

investment location.For the case of Spain,1the empirical?ndings show the variance:Cantos et al.(2005)con?rmed the existence of very substantial spillovers;álvarez et al.(2006)did not?nd evi-dence of the existence of spillover effects of public infrastructure using a panel data set of the47mainland Spanish provinces;Moreno and Lopez-Bazo(2007)investigated the economic returns to local and transport infrastructure and found negative spillovers across Spanish regions in transport capital investments.This variance of the results is probably because of the difference between studies in the de?nition of public capital and the econometric models. What’s worthy to note is that most empirical studies measure the spillover effects of transport infrastructure restricting attention to the?rst round neighbors for the purpose of a speci?cation that is lin-

ear in the parameters(Boarnet,1996;Berechman et al.,2006;Ozbay et al.,2007;Moreno and Lopez-Bazo,2007).With the development of spatial econometric techniques(Anselin,2001;LeSage and Pace, 2009),some advanced spatial models recently developed have been employed to capture the spatial externalities of infrastructure (including transport infrastructure)(Gomez-Antonio and Fingleton, 2009;Del Bo and Florio,2012).

Due to its huge size,China is disaggregated into many small administrative units—provincial(or municipality)governments,2 which have acquired substantial?nancial power after the Chinese ?scal decentralization,carried out in the early1990s(Zhang et al., 2007).Each local government(provincial level)has the?scal and political power to make decisions on the planning and investment of its transport construction,considering its individual interests. Hence,following?scal decentralization,it is now possible to inves-tigate for China whether regional transport infrastructure invest-ment does have spillover effects–in terms of economic growth–on neighboring regions.In the case of China,only a small number of previous studies provide a separate analysis of spatial spillover endowments of transport infrastructures(Liu et al.,2007;Zhang, 2009;Liu,2010;Hu and Liu,2009).Liu et al.(2007)investigated the spillovers using the panel data for11cities of Zhejiang province and summarized that the highway infrastructure of other contiguous regions had positive spillover effects on local economic growth. Zhang(2009)estimated the spillover effects in the period1993–2004and con?rmed the existence of spillovers at the national level. Liu(2010)examined the contributions of highway and waterway infrastructure for different geographic levels,including both direct effects and externalities and suggested that the Chinese government should take the spatial correlation of investment impacts into con-sideration in its policy making regarding transport investment.Hu and Liu(2009)investigated the external spillover effects of transpor-tation on China’s economic growth based on the spatial models and found the positive spillover with an elasticity of0.06.These studies attempted to verify the existence of spillovers of transport facilities (or several types of transport infrastructure)in China and some of them indeed found empirical evidence of spillovers.However,most of these studies do not estimate spillover effects at the sub-national level,which would be more useful for the public decision making on the planning for large transport projects.This is why we propose this study,in order to obtain more detailed information of regional out-put productivity with respect to transport investment in a spatial framework,?nd changes in(the magnitude of)spillover effects over time,and try to interpret our?ndings in light of the actual situation in China.

Our study aims to test for the presence of regional spillovers of transport capital and to measure their magnitude both in the coun-try as a whole and in speci?c parts of China.Of particular emphasis in this paper is the regional difference in the spatial effects of transport infrastructure on economic growth.The structure of the paper is as follows.The next section gives a brief descriptive analysis of the expansion of the transport infrastructure network and the regional distribution of transport facilities in China.Sec-tion3introduces the methodology and database to quantify spatial spillovers of transport investment in the Chinese regions,and it also presents the results.To improve our understanding of the re-gional differences in spillover,a deeper analysis of the changes in spillover effects of transport infrastructure among Chinese regions will be presented in Section4.The paper ends with conclusions and policy implications.

2.Transport infrastructures in China:an overview

In the past decades,investment in transport infrastructure in China has seen remarkable growth in parallel with its booming economy.After30years of construction,all types of transport infrastructure have seen signi?cant expansion as shown in Table1.

In the past six decades the transport network in China has be-gun to take shape.The patterns of the current railway and highway networks in China in2009are presented in Fig.1.

In2009,the total length of the Chinese railway network reached 103.16thousand kilometers.A government of?cial from the Minis-try of Railways,Mr.Liu Zhijun,3has stated that,in the long-term plan for Chinese railways,the total railway mileages will increase to120thousand kilometers,including16thousand kilometers of high-speed railways in2015.

As to the highways,the investment in the highway construction was as high as RMB623.11billion yuan(about$93billion dollars) in2009and kept a high growth rate from1978,above10%per year.The total mileage of expressways was45thousand kilome-ters in2009,which was an80%increase compared with the length in2002.

The central government allocates its investment budget mostly to those transport facilities,the construction of which is likely to generate high economic returns,such as toll roads,ports and in-ter-city high-speed rail between high-density metropolitan areas. However,because regional Chinese administrative units have their own discretion with respect to the distribution of public invest-ment,local governments make the investment decision in view of their individual economic growth and(often)neglect the(spill-over)impact of their investments on the neighboring areas.As a re-sult,there is considerable underinvestment in the connecting highways(State Roads and Provincial Roads)and rural roads, which have low economic returns but high social returns.

Table1

Transport system mileage in China.Source:The data is obtained from China Transportation Yearbook(1984–2010).

Year Roads

(?1000km)

Railway

(?1000km)

Waterways

(?1000km)

Civil aviation

(?1000km) 195099.6522.273.648.22

1970636.7443.79148.4242.50

1980883.3152.98108.53231.38

19901028.3057.83109.27506.82

20001402.7968.70119.371529.14

20053345.7175.48123.311998.52

20093860.2185.56123.752345.19

1For the case of Spain,several studies on the topic of cross-border spillover effects recently emerged.However,these papers adopted a methodology based on the accessibility calculation in a Geographic Information System support,which was not very related to our paper.Thus,we did not review this literature here.

2The administrative hierarchy in China is:county–city–province(or municipal-

ity)–state.Since the?nancial reform in1994,the provincial(and municipalities) governments have obtained the discretion over priority-setting in public investment.

3Mr.Liu Zhijun was the head of Ministry of Railway Transportation in China during the period of2003–2011,which is independent from the Ministry of Transportation.

N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–6657

Meanwhile,as we have discussed in our previous paper (Yu et al.,2012),there exists a wide variety in transport infrastructure facilities among Chinese regions 4(shown in Fig.2),which clearly appears as stair steps decreasing gradually from eastern China to western China.Most coastal provinces are well endowed with a high quantity and quality of transport facilities,whereas the transport network density remains very low in remote western provinces.

What is therefore clear is that the transport network has ex-panded considerably since the establishment of modern China in 1949,and because of network characteristics and spatial clustering of transport infrastructures we argue that it is important and nec-essary to consider spatial factors when estimating the potential economic bene?ts of transport facilities.Could the transport facil-ities yield more economic bene?ts than just their direct regional effects on the region alone?How do the spillovers change over time at the sub-national level if the existence of spillovers can be veri?ed?To answer these questions,we will examine the spillover effects at the national and regional level in the next section.3.Measuring spatial spillover effects of transport infrastructure in China

3.1.Model speci?cation and data collection

3.1.1.Model speci?cation

On the subject of impacts with respect to transport infrastruc-ture,most of the previous studies were conducted within the framework of a Cobb–Douglas (C–D)production function (Boarnet,1996,1998;Holtz-Eakin and Schwartz,1995;Hu and Liu,2009;Del Bo and Florio,2012).Therefore,the baseline empirical model is constructed in framework of production function as:

Y ?f eL ;Kc ;Kg ;TI Te1T

where Y denotes output,L denotes labor input,Kc denotes private sector capital stock,Kg represents pubic capital stock (except for

the transport capital stock)and TI stands for the transport infrastructure capital stock.As usual,in the log-linearized reduced version,the estimated parameters can be thought of as GDP elastic-ities to each regressor:

ln Y ?b 0tb 1ln L tb 2ln Kc tb 3ln Kg tb 4ln TI te

e2T

Given that Moran’s I statistic 5suggested that the data were af-fected by spatial autocorrelation,it is necessary for our study to con-sider the role of a change in own and neighboring explanatory and dependent variables by an appropriate spatial econometric model (Anselin,2001).Based on LeSage and Pace (2009),a general spatial model,Spatial Durbin Model (SDM)6could be considered for our empirical analysis:

y ?q Wy tX b th WX ta l n te

e3T

where q is the spatial autocorrelation coef?cient,W is the spatial weight matrix,X is the matrix of control variables (including labor,private capital,public capital and transport infrastructure),l n de-notes an n ?1vector of ones,a ,h and b are vectors of regression coef?cient estimates,and e is the error term.The SDM includes a spatial lag of the dependent variable (Wy )as well as spatial lagged explanatory variables (WX ).An implication of this is that a change in the dependent variable for a single region may affect the depen-dent variable in all other regions by the network effect;meanwhile a change in the explanatory variable for a single observation can potentially affect the dependent variable in all other

observations.

1.China’s railway network (left)and highway network (right)of China in 2009.Source :The information is collected from the of?cial websites of Ministry of Railways Ministry of Transport of China,2010.Available on line:https://www.wendangku.net/doc/fe5297555.html,/,https://www.wendangku.net/doc/fe5297555.html,/.

4

In our paper,China is divided into four macro regions,based on their level of economic development and geographic position:the eastern region,northeastern region,central region and western region.

5

Here we have used the standard Moran’s index (Moran’s I ),as an indicator of spatial autocorrelation.The results of the spatial autocorrelation analysis indicate that there is signi?cant spatial autocorrelation in these models,thus it is necessary to introduce the spatial factors when we calculate the contributions of transport infrastructure on the regional economic growth.The details of calculation process are available from the authors.6

The SDM is a general spatial model,which,in a restricted form,can be interpreted as a spatial autoregressive model (SAR)or spatial error model (SEM).The choice of this unconstrained speci?cation was driven by LM tests and LR tests.Our result shows that the SDM is to be adopted against SAR and SEM.A Hausman test is calculated to select between ?xed and random effects,and the value is -80.95,thus the random effects is more suitable for our spatial panel model at the national level.We also did the calculation process for each small panel,however,we just provide the ?nal results because of the words limitation.But the details are available from the authors.

Combining Eqs.(2)and(3),our key empirical model for the esti-

spillover effects in China can be constructed as:

tb0tb1ln L i;ttb2ln Kc i;ttb3ln Kg i;t

X N j?1w ij ln L j;tth2

X N

j?1

w ij ln Kc j;t

Kg

j;t th4

X N

j?1

w ij ln TI j;tte i;te4T

where Y is real gross domestic product;i and t are the indices of

province and year respectively;j represents nearby provinces

(j–i);w ij is each of the elements in the spatial weights matrix W

that describes the spatial arrangement of the different regions,

and other variables are de?ned as before.In a SDM context,the re-

gional variation in GDP levels is modeled to depend on the GDP lev-

els from the neighboring provinces captured by the spatial lag

vector Wy,as well as the factors input(including L,Kc,Kg and TI)

of neighboring provinces represented by WX.

In this study,a binary contiguity matrix(w bin)is used to con-

struct the spatial weighted matrix(w ij),which assumes only con-

tiguous provinces can in?uence each other:

w ij?

1if the province i has a border with province j

0otherwise

and

P N

j?1

w ij?1.

Here we choose the‘provincial borders’to de?ne the‘spatial

geographic unit’for this study,because they are the containers of

the data we need for our calculations,while the governments in

these units(provinces)surrounded by the provincial borders have

the power to decide on public investments,which is essential for

the policy application of our empirical?ndings.

For w bin,we can get a symmetric spatial matrix of the29Chi-

nese provinces,7as Fig.3shows.

In order to better evaluate spatial spillovers,following LeSage

and Pace(2009),the direct,indirect and total impacts can be calcu-

lated based on the estimators of SDM.These measures capture the

accumulative effect in the Chinese regions of changes in the inde-

pendent variables(including transport infrastructure),which lead

to a change in the long-run steady-state equilibrium.The purpose

was to verify whether the positive effect of an increase in a region’s

transport infrastructure is accompanied by a negative spillover ef-

fect from other regions.What’s worthy to note is that the direct ef-

fect of independent variables is different with the coef?cient b,

Fig.2.Four macro regions in China.

Fig.3.Symmetric spatial matrix of the29Chinese provinces.7We give the explanation of the provinces selection in the data collection part.

since b also contains the feedback effect,representing the effect of the impacts spilling over to the neighboring regions and back to the region itself.

According to LeSage and Pace(2009)and Del Bo and Florio (2012),the SDM speci?cation contains spatially lagged values of both the dependent and the explanatory variables.LeSage and Pace (2009)provided the theoretical framework to interpret these direct and indirect effects,by transforming the spatial weight matrix and by considering the role of off and on diagonal elements.Formally, the SDM can be re-written as:

eI nàq WTy?X btWX htl n atee5Ty?

X k

r?1

S reWTx rtVeWTl n atVeWTee6T

where S reWT?VeWTeI n b rtW h rTand VeWT?eI nàq WTà1.

If we expand Eq.(6)from one region to n regions and transfer to the matrix form,we can get:

y

1

y 2áááy n ?

X k

r?1

S reWT

11

S reWT

12

áááS reWT

1n

S reWT

21

S reWT

22

áááS reWT

2n

............

S reWT

n1

ááááááS reWT

nn

2

66

66

4

3

77

77

5

x1r

x2r

...

x nr

2

66

66

4

3

77

77

5

tVeWTe

e7T

Here,average direct impacts can be obtained as the average of the diagonal elements of matrix S r(W),the average total impacts could be calculated by averaging over all regions the sum of the rows(or columns)of matrix S r(W)and average indirect impacts(spillover ef-fects)were obtained as a difference between the total and direct impacts.Formally:

rTtotal?nà1l0

n S reWT

l n

MerTdirect?nà1treS reWTT

MerTindirect?MerTtotalàMerTdirect

In this way,the sign and magnitude of direct and indirect im-pacts of the explanative variables can be calculated.

Our methodology differs from the previous studies in two ways:?rstly,our model could consider the spillovers from all the regions, not limited to the?rst round neighbors as the previous literatures did(Boarnet,1996;Berechman et al.,2006;Ozbay et al.,2007; Moreno and Lopez-Bazo,2007);secondly,our study uses a more general spatial speci?cation developed recently,both considering the spatial autoregressive model and spatial error model,which could provide a more complete and accurate picture of the spill-over effects than the existed studies(Hu and Liu,2009;Zhang and Yi,2012),especially with respect to transport infrastructure.

To deal with the endogeneity in our model,we apply Maximum Likehood(ML)procedures in estimating spatial panel data models as implemented in the MATLAB.The spatial panel model and the direct and indirect effect can be computed by the spatial econo-metrics library for MATLAB provided by LeSage.Although the Gen-eralized Method of Moments(GMMs)could be regarded as an alternative,GMM usually has to include spatially lagged indepen-dent variables,a requirement that would not allow us to test the in?uence of spatial spillovers(Del Bo and Florio,2012).

3.1.2.Data collection

The data used in this research are collected from a number of different of?cial Chinese sources,including the China Statistical Yearbook(1982–2010),the Statistical Yearbook of Chinese prov-inces,municipalities and PRC’s Statistical Series of60Years(SSB,2010).The spillover effects to sub-national growth in China will be estimated with data of Chinese provincial governments except Hainan province,which is a separate island without any geo-graphic neighbors.The data of Chongqing is combined with those of Sichuan province in this paper,because Chongqing used to be a city in Sichuan province until1997.Some investment data during 1966–1974are unavailable from of?cial sources due to political is-sues during1974–1978,and consequently we use data from a pa-nel of29Chinese provinces for the period1978–2009for which data is available on real GDP,private sector investment,employed population(labor input),transport infrastructure investment and public investment.

The separate investment data in transport infrastructure cannot be found in various sources and we have to adopt the data on ‘‘investment in transport infrastructure and postal service’’from the Statistical Yearbook of provinces and municipalities instead of the transport investment.We calculate the transport infrastruc-ture capital stock,private sector capital stock and public capital stock based on investment data,according to the perpetual inven-tory method(Goldsmith,1951).8

3.2.Results and discussion

In order to compare the changes of the spillover effects over time,we also ran the spillover effects model(Eq.(4))for three sub-periods,1978–1990,1991–2000and2001–2009,respectively. The key results at the national and regional levels are presented in Tables2–4.The spatial autocorrelation coef?cient q is positive and signi?cant in all panels,indicating that the Chinese provinces are characterized by a positive and signi?cant level of spatial correla-tion,with an estimated coef?cient value ranging from0.15to0.39.

3.2.1.Spillover effects at the national level

Table2reports the results of the estimation of the SDM,and we can?nd that the coef?cients of the labor,private capital,public capital and transport infrastructure are positive and signi?cant. In terms of the spatial lagged independent variables,the national output is a positive function of private capital,public capital and transport infrastructure endowment in the neighboring provinces, while the spillover effects of labor is negative,but not signi?cant. This?nding is in line with Zhang and Yi(2012),which concluded that the spillovers of labor in China were mainly limited at the municipality and county level because of its huge distance be-tween areas.

However,these estimators just provide an idea of interactions among provinces,thus we provide the sign and magnitude of the direct and indirect impacts in order to provide the accurate spill-over effects,especially associated with transport infrastructure in Table3.

Our empirical?ndings show that total effects of private capital and public capital variables have positive signs and are signi?cant at the1%level for the entire observation period.Moreover,these two capitals have a similar magnitude of output elasticity(the coef?cients are0.24and0.22),which means that private capital and public capital have almost the same contribution to the output.In our view,this could be because of the fact that after three decades of economic reform,the market factors have played an essential role in the Chinese economy,even though the 8Private sector capital stock was computed using perpetual inventory method as

follows:,where K is the private capital stock in year t;I is the real private investment in?xed assets in constant1978prices;d is the depreciation rate(we assume the depreciation rate of the private capital is9.6%according to Zhang et al.(2004)).The same method was applied to the calculation of other infrastructure capital stock and transport capital stock.The process of the calculation is not provided here due to the word limitation,but available from the authors.

60N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–66

governments could still partly control the allocation of social re-sources through economic policies.The results also provide a rea-sonable estimate for the labor coef?cient(0.53),which indicates that labor input growth has the largest impact on Chinese real GDP growth;the coef?cient value is very much in line with?nd-ings from earlier studies and growth-accounting analyses for Asia (Zhang,2009;Sahoo et al.,2010).

Considering the impact of transport infrastructure,we?nd that transport infrastructure has a positive total impact on national growth(the coef?cient is0.17),but this impact decreases over time since the direct impact declines during the different periods(the coef?cients are0.26,0.17and0.04in the periods1978–1990, 1991–2000and2001–2009,respectively).The impact of transport infrastructure declines over time,which may be because since the economic reform,investment in transport projects has continu-ously increased,and after some time the marginal returns began to decline.These empirical?ndings are mainly in line with previ-ous studies for the case of China(Zhang,2009;Liu,2010),but pro-viding some difference in the magnitude of elasticities of these inputs since our study has been unfolded in a spatial context, assuming both of the productivity and factor inputs in the neigh-boring provinces could affect the local economy.

For China,as Table3shows,the spillover effect(indirect effect) of transport infrastructure is0.05(the coef?cient is0.05and statis-tically signi?cant),which means transport stock does not only con-tribute to GDP directly but also indirectly through regional spillover effects.This?nding is consistent with Zhang(2009)and Hu and Liu(2009).Meanwhile,we?nd that these spatial spillovers are signi?cantly positive in each period and increase over time:the coef?cients are0.03for the period1978–1990,0.05for1991–2000,and0.08for the years2001–2009,which are statistically different based on a t-test.9

This?nding implies that the spillover effects played a more and more important part in promoting economic growth(the coef?-cients of spillovers increase over time)because of transport net-work expansion.This expansion helps to reduce transportation costs among regions and also brings indirect social externalities due to the improvement of transport network accessibility.The declining transportation cost is propitious to enlarge the domestic market and to facilitate the development of foreign trade,which could stimulate economic growth(Mao and Sheng,2011).

3.2.2.Spillover effects at the regional level

Focusing mainly on the indirect effect of transport infrastruc-ture(represented by l),as can be seen clearly in Table4,the elas-ticities of the spillovers vary considerably among regions in the entire period under study(the coef?cients are0.14,0.04,à0.05 andà0.06for the eastern,northeastern,central and western re-gions,respectively).The neighboring transport investment will lead to positive effects in the eastern region,and the output elastic-ity is very high,0.14,which means the GDP of the eastern region will increase by0.14%if the transport stock in the neighboring re-gion increases by1%.The spillover effect in the northeastern region is also signi?cant and positive(the coef?cient is0.04),but statisti-cally lower than the one of the eastern region.10However,for the

Table2

Estimation results of SDM at the national level.

Variable1978–2009Period1Period2Period3

Constant 1.203(9.23)***0.691(6.92)*** 1.521(14.24)*** 1.304(4.20)*** L0.572(19.89)***0.471(14.39)***0.566(13.52)***0.597(15.58)*** Kc0.141(12.46)***0.069(17.04)***0.100(13.62)***0.148(15.16)*** Kg0.186(13.59)***0.259(13.37)***0.161(13.38)***0.124(12.23)*** TI0.114(16.53)***0.256(15.61)***0.170(15.35)***0.036(5.36)*** q0.231(4.25)***0.307(3.16)***0.279(13.01)***0.264(8.53)*** W?Là0.283(1.65)à0.156(0.31)à0.188(1.37)à0.176(1.32) W?Kc0.073(6.37)***0.046(2.32)**0.061(7.57)***0.082(10.24)*** W?Kg0.022(11.24)***0.002(5.16)***0.030(9.23)***0.047(2.27)** W?TI0.045(7.32)***0.019(12.49)***0.041(7.35)***0.072(13.24)*** Adj.R20.7960.5190.8770.764 Log likelihood177.42153.43164.36148.35

Note:t-statistics are in parentheses.Numbers of observations equals to numbers of years in each period multiplied by29provinces.

?Statistical signi?cance at the10%level.

**Statistical signi?cance at the5%level.

***Statistical signi?cance at the1%level.

Table3

The direct and indirect effects of explanative variables.

Variables1978–2009Period1Period2Period3

Labor Direct effect0.554(23.14)???0.465(14.67)???0.537(6.36)???0.585(26.41)???

Indirect effectà0.123(1.26)à0.114(1.24)à0.144(0.37)à0.140(1.47)

Total0.531(9.45)???0.451(14.43)???0.493(4.75)???0.545(13.28)???

Private capital Direct effect0.149(6.03)???0.074(14.65)???0.103(21.24)???0.154(14.37)???

Indirect effect0.087(15.35)???0.061(9.31)???0.079(4.25)???0.100(6.32)???

Total0.236(21.75)???0.135(4.67)???0.182(10.46)??0.254(13.46)???

Public capital Direct effect0.192(19.24)???0.261(3.65)???0.166(11.46)???0.129(2.23)??

Indirect effect0.031(7.34)???0.003(1.97)??0.037(8.24)???0.054(7.25)???

Total0.223(13.04)???0.264(11.69)???0.203(12.65)???0.183(10.53)???

Transport infrastructure Direct effect0.119(17.21)???0.258(13.46)???0.173(19.47)???0.036(1.99)??

Indirect effect0.054(15.17)???0.027(13.01)???0.051(2.49)??0.084(12.16)???

Total0.173(12.36)???0.285(26.35)???0.224(2.16)??0.120(7.47)???

9The results from the t-test indicate that the elasticities of transport infrastructure

in various periods are statistically different.

10The t-test results verify that the spillovers in the eastern region and the

northeastern region are statistically different.

N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–6661

central and western regions,the increase of investment in neighbor-ing transport infrastructure may hold back the local economy(the coef?cients have a negative sign).

When we compare our results for the three sub-periods,we can see that the changes in spillovers vary considerably among these regions:

(1)For the eastern region,the transport stock in the neighboring

region has a positive external impact during the whole per-iod.The regression results illustrate that the output elastic-ities of neighboring transport infrastructures for the three sub-periods are signi?cant and positive(the coef?cients are0.06,0.17and0.14).(2)For the northeastern region,no signi?cant spillovers can be

found in period1,but negative spillovers can be observed in the second period(the coef?cient isà0.06).In the last period,positive externalities can be found(the coef?cient is0.03).

(3)In the central region,the estimated coef?cients of spillovers

areà0.02during1978–1990,à0.12during1991–2000,à0.05during2001–2009,which means that the growth of the transport stock in neighboring regions actually had a negative impact on economic growth in the central region all the time.

(4)For the western region,the negative spillovers can be cap-

tured in the last two sub-periods(the coef?cients are

Table4

Estimation results of SDM at the regional level(East,Northeast,Central and West).

Regions Variables1978–2009Period1Period2Period3

Eastern region L0.616(15.61)***0.495(13.12)**0.597(11.90)**0.668(14.32)*** Kc0.167(20.05)***0.092(21.14)***0.150(17.98)***0.283(15.45)***

Kg0.132(16.36)***0.136(10.42)***0.139(18.35)***0.085(19.31)***

TI0.091(2.25)**0.203(2.59)**0.100(2.34)**0.088(0.41)

q0.394(13.54)***0.325(6.47)***0.293(15.35)***0.343(21.35)***

W?Là1.423(1.36)à1.065(1.44)à1.710(0.79)à1.431(1.22)

W?Kc0.101(15.21)***0.093(12.21)***0.064(1.99)*0.125(2.30)**

W?Kg0.031(3.25)***0.023(1.92)*0.021(7.37)***0.035(12.53)***

W?TI0.124(13.56)***0.035(16.34)***0.151(14.74)***0.103(8.42)***

l0.141(16.32)***0.062(6.87)***0.167(7.12)***0.139(14.55)***

Adj.R20.6450.8320.5350.677

Log likelihood149.23136.65104.36157.64

Northeastern region L0.537(12.09)***0.575(16.03)***0.506(2.93)**0.563(10.31)*** Kc0.099(10.02)***0.051(1.98)*0.108(7.61)***0.109(9.05)***

Kg0.179(6.63)***0.214(10.35)***0.166(2.34)**0.173(15.29)***

TI0.141(4.03)***0.221(21.56)***0.193(1.86)*0.110(2.90)**

q0.214(24.68)***0.269(3.74)***0.196(12.71)***0.286(6.74)***

W?Là0.194(0.47)à0.114(2.62)**à0.107(0.74)à0.083(1.29)

W?Kc0.061(14.62)***0.053(1.87)*0.104(0.39)0.086(16.31)***

W?Kg0.056(8.49)***0.046(0.91)0.055(6.74)***0.082(24.26)***

W?TI0.021(12.42)***à0.121(0.64)à0.074(2.36)**0.022(2.50)**

l0.039(9.26)***à0.106(0.47)à0.057(2.14)*0.030(2.79)**

Adj.R20.7830.8320.6630.675

Log likelihood178.57103.24121.01177.36

Central region L0.535(6.36)***0.566(1.86)*0.521(2.03)*0.573(2.74)** Kc0.105(11.20)***0.058(2.33)**0.081(9.71)***0.104(7.89)***

Kg0.169(10.84)***0.181(10.24)***0.200(9.45)***0.143(6.36)***

TI0.194(15.75)***0.171(2.25)**0.163(17.34)***0.209(10.60)***

q0.262(5.32)***0.305(7.15)***0.192(15.26)***0.254(3.86)***

W?Là0.097(1.09)à0.106(0.73)à0.093(1.37)à0.165(1.93)*

W?Kc0.054(16.32)***0.062(6.31)***0.056(14.28)***0.094(14.63)***

W?Kg0.037(6.84)***0.071(1.04)0.102(2.35)**0.089(1.42)

W?TIà0.071(16.42)***à0.033(7.58)***à0.134(1.89)*à0.075(2.61)***

là0.054(8.09)***à0.015(6.23)***à0.122(2.21)**à0.050(2.28)**

Adj.R20.7050.6350.4630.562

Log likelihood132.53144.89161.26105.85

Western region L0.462(14.23)***0.403(32.90)0.345(2.78)**0.387(2.48)** Kc0.126(12.63)***0.080(2.89)**0.061(10.67)***0.133(21.47)***

Kg0.228(13.25)***0.193(15.36)***0.250(2.35)**0.201(12.35)***

TI0.073(13.02)***0.082(2.77)**0.081(2.06)*0.029(0.65)

q0.235(7.47)***0.169(16.73)***0.145(21.63)***0.271(15.36)***

W?Là0.0521(1.36)à0.131(0.14)à0.067(2.20)**à0.133(1.27)

W?Kc0.037(13.63)***0.030(5.62)***0.051(2.36)**0.036(4.74)***

W?Kg0.021(5.17)***0.010(1.98)*0.043(2.04)*0.039(2.59)**

W?TIà0.084(4.25)***à0.107(0.16)à0.135(8.47)***à0.092(2.43)**

là0.061(2.22)**à0.070(0.88)à0.102(10.15)***à0.059(2.44)**

Adj.R20.5470.4950.5370.512

Log likelihood162.54181.26165.52174.27

Note:t-statistics are given in parenthesis.Period1,Period2and Period3represent1978–1990,1990–2000and2001–2009,respectively.Numbers of observations equals to numbers of provinces in each region multiplied by analysis period.Here,we calculated and reported the indirect effect(spillover effects)of transport infrastructure for each region in different periods,represented by l.

*Statistical signi?cance at the10%level.

**Statistical signi?cance at the5%level.

***Statistical signi?cance at the1%level.

62N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–66

à0.10andà0.06).We do not?nd spillover effects for the ?rst period:according to our estimations,the estimated coef?cients are not statistically signi?cant in period1.

Our empirical?ndings are partly in line with the previous stud-ies(Zhang,2009;Liu,2010;Hu and Liu,2009)at the national level, but show some contradictory results comparing to Liu(2010)at the regional level.That may be because:(1)Our paper adopted an advanced spatial Durbin Model,considering both the spatial lagged dependent and independent variables;meanwhile the spa-tial spillovers from all the regions were measured in our study, which could make our estimators are more accurate and convinc-ing.(2)Only the highway and waterway capital stock have been considered in his paper,while we adopt a broader selection of transport infrastructure data,including railway and aviation investment.We believe the railway constructions have been emphasized by the central government in recent years(several large high speed train projects).Railway networks are supposed to have signi?cant spillover effects.Thus,the incorporation of rail-way investment data may yield changes in the results.(3)The dif-ferent de?nitions of regions may also cause the con?icting results. In order to underline the spatial factors,four macro regions are classi?ed considering the geographic position,instead of the tradi-tional classi?cation(east,central and west regions)according to the economic development level,which would make our estimate results of the spatial spillovers more realistic.

To summarize,the empirical results from this study con?rm the existence of spillover effects of transport infrastructure for the case of China.More speci?cally,changes in the spillovers between Chi-nese regions over time can be observed.For the purpose of an in-depth analysis on the regional difference in spatial spillovers,we will next investigate how the spillovers of transport infrastructure work in China.

4.Analysis on the changes of spillover effects among Chinese regions

Different from the previous studies on the estimation of trans-port spillover effects from a macro view(Zhang,2009;Liu et al., 2007),we analyze the sources of spillovers in this paper:two types of spillover effects can be classi?ed.On the one hand,positive spill-overs can be caused by productivity leakages because of the con-nectivity characteristics of transport facilities(Munnell,1992). On the other hand,spillovers of transport infrastructure may arise from the migration of production factors:mobile factors of produc-tion migrate to places with better transport stock.That migration results in output gains in places with well-developed transport capital stocks and output losses elsewhere,which has been theo-retically veri?ed in previous studies(Boarnet,1996,1998;Moreno and Lopez-Bazo,2007).Thus,in our study,we try to explain the changes in spillover effects by understanding the nature of the spillovers,interpreting our empirical?ndings according to the ac-tual situation in China.

4.1.Spillover effects arising from network characteristics

According to Banister and Berechman(2001),the increase in transport investment in one region could improve the network accessibility of this region and therefore enlarge its market scale. Adam Smith proposed the‘extent of the market’hypothesis:as the size of the market expands,this makes possible a greater divi-sion of labor and hence specialization,and this in turn would allow the economy to expand further and the growth in output and pro-ductivity would cumulate.Krugman(1991)and Fujita et al.(1999) re-formulated Smith’s argument from a viewpoint of external economies of scale and increasing returns to scale.Thus,we can ar-gue that the transport network expansion could stimulate the economy in both the area where the investment happens and the neighboring areas because of the growing market.In other words, the positive network spillover effects could occur when infrastruc-ture investments in one state bene?t people in other states through the transport network(Munnell,1992).

For the case of China,Mao and Sheng(2011)concluded that both economic opening and regional integration have demonstra-bly positive effects on China’s provincial TFP(total factor produc-tivity);Huang and Li(2006)found that the market scale expansion had a positive impact on economic growth adopting the New Economic Geography methodology.So,we can argue that for China,the rapid enlargement of the market scale induced by transport improvement brings many economic bene?ts.Thus,it is reasonable that we?nd the existence of positive spillovers in China at the national level for the entire period under study and for different sub-periods since the transport network could facili-tate the productivity leakages among provinces.However Chinese regions show that transport stock spillovers change over time-periods,probably because of negative spillovers from factor migra-tion,which may counteract positive externalities from market size changes in some sub-state areas.

4.2.Spillover effects arising from mobile factors

Spillovers from factor migration are positive for regions of des-tination,but negative for regions of origin(Boarnet,1996,1998). Changes in inter-regional migration?ows play an essential role in explaining the changes of spillover effects among regions.In the period of1978–1990,the centralized decision-making struc-ture still applied to spatial distribution of the capitals since the economic reform just started,and factor migration was limited. In the second period(1991–2000),China started to implement a market-oriented economy and the exchange of production factors and commodities grew much easier because of lower transport costs and enhanced accessibility.The production factors began to transfer from the poor West,and the intermediate Northeast and Center to the well-developed East.In2000s,the eastern region has witnessed a dramatic development and its productivity over-?ow was expected to bene?t the other regions by the way of indus-trial redistribution.To understand what has happened,we consider how the migration of production factors has changed over time across the four regions in Table5.The table reports the migra-tion of production factors among regions in different periods.

From Table5,we can see the total trend of the net migration va-lue of production factors(capital and labor).Obviously,the central region(the connecting areas)is the victim of those migrations in 1978–2000,when a substantial outward shift of production activ-ities to the eastern region occurred.Remarkably,the northeastern region and western region do not lose as we expected,possibly be-cause of their substantial geographic distance from the well devel-oped eastern region.In the last decade,the production factors have started to shift from the well-developed eastern region to the un-der-developed regions.A large amount of capital shifted to the western region possibly because of the‘Western Development Strategy’started in1999.Since then the central government has invested a lot in the West and also provided favorable policies to attract other outside investments to that region.These?ndings seem totally in line with the actual situation we analyzed before.

4.3.A saldo matrix for the spillover change in different periods

In view of the two sources of spillovers of transport infrastruc-ture,we will construct a balanced matrix to show what happened in Chinese regions.Here,we suppose that transport spillovers

N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–6663

arising from mobile production factors show the same trend as fac-tor migration,which has been theoretically veri?ed in Moreno and Lopez-Bazo(2007).Meanwhile,we assume that the spillovers hing-ing on the network characteristics of transport facilities are always positive(+)since our empirical?ndings show the autoregressive coef?cient(q)is positive and signi?cant for each case.Conse-quently,we can construct a saldo matrix for the spillover change in different periods in these four regions,as shown in Table6.

In1978–2000,the eastern region has undergone a great capital and labor in?ux,and the spillovers there from factor migration have been positive.Thus,the saldo matrix shows that the two types of effects are of the same sign,which can explain why the spillover effects from the regression?ndings are positive all the time.In period3,our empirical?ndings show that the spillovers lightly decline but remain positive,which con?icts with the saldo matrix(the spillover should be zero).

For the northeastern region,from a balance perspective,the sal-do matrix shows that in period1,the negative spillover accruing from factor migration from the central region to the eastern region counteracted the positive spillover caused by the connectivity characteristic of transport facilities;in period2,the negative spill-over also exceeded the positive one and the saldo remained nega-tive;in period3,these two types of spillover have the same sign (positive),therefore a positive spillover was found.That is because in the last period,the equipment manufacturing industry has con-centrated in the northeastern provinces because of lower transport cost(Liu et al.,2011).These?ndings can help explain the changes in spillover effects with respect to transport infrastructure from our empirical estimate results.

For the central and western regions,the saldo shows the same trend as for the northeastern region.But in the period of2001–2009,our empirical results indicate that negative spillovers exist in the central and western region.However we can see that the sal-do of spillovers should be positive in the last period,which contra-dicts the data.

Indeed,in the last decade,the improvement in the transport network did not result in industrial expansion in the eastern re-gion,which may disappoint some government of?cials who expect that transport infrastructure construction could reduce the gap be-tween regions by realizing the‘industrial gradient transfer’.As the previous literature(Krugman,1991;Fujita et al.,1999;Banister and Berechman,2001)pointed out,in cases where labor migration is limited,the price of labor would increase with the agglomeration of industries(economic activities),and therefore increase the pro-duction cost.Some enterprises may choose to relocate to periphe-ral areas if production costs exceed savings in exchange costs.In this way,the peripheral regions may bene?t from the productivity over?ow from the core region.However in China,the gradual industrial redistribution may not yet have happened because of a seemingly endless supply of cheap manual labor.China has a very substantial rural labor-surplus,about120million persons in2009 (Yi and Ying,2011).Meanwhile,apart from the transport cost and production cost,the economic policies(such as tax policy)played a key part in the industrial redistribution in China.Thus,in the last period,the technology-intensive industries still moved to the east-ern region(Liu et al.,2011)due to agglomeration effects,caused by lower transport costs.The in-migration of economic activities in the last period in the central and western regions(visible in Ta-ble5)occurs because some resource-intensive industries in the eastern region depend on resource exploitation in the central and western regions.Consequently these industries,such as agricul-ture,petroleum and coal extraction,and metal smelting,have to move out of the eastern region into the resource-rich regions in or-der to meet the growing demand of raw materials for the export industries in the last decade(Liu et al.,2011).But this type of industrial redistribution(production factor migration)happened in the central and western regions had nothing to do with trans-port costs.

That is why we can see the positive sign in the last period from our saldo but negative spillovers can be found from our empirical study,in the central and western regions.For the same reason, the economic activities(production factors)migrated from the eastern part in the last period,but it was not because of the trans-port network.The factor migration caused by the transport infra-structure still went into the eastern coastal provinces from the other regions.Thus,it makes sense that we can still?nd positive spillovers in the eastern region over the2001–2009period.

5.Conclusion and policy implications

Much of the evidence on transport infrastructure spillovers has been reported for the states and counties in the developed

Table5

The migration of production factors among regions in various periods.

East Northeast Center West

Capital Labor Trend Capital Labor Trend Capital Labor Trend Capital Labor Trend

Period1+330+391+à39à32àà238à175àà52à78à1978–1990

Period2+7536+2222++à1763à383ààà3735à1331ààà2200à503àà1991–2000

Period3à712à239à+210+68++287+97++455+65+ 2001–2008

Note:‘+’means shift-in and‘à’means shift-out.The data of capital migration are collected from Peng(2008)(unit is RMB one hundred million yuan).The data of labor migration are gathered from Wang et al.(2010)(unit is ten thousand people)and the National Statistical Compilation of Transient population(Ministry of Public Security, 2010).

Table6

Spillover changes of Chinese regions in different periods.

Spillovers East Northeast Center West

Period1Period2Period3Period1Period2Period3Period1Period2Period3Period1Period2Period3

Source1++++++++++++ Source2+++àààà+ààà+ààà+ Saldo+++++00à++0à++0à++

64N.Yu et al./Journal of Transport Geography28(2013)56–66

countries,such as United States and Spain,where there may be no severe lack of infrastructure endowment.Here,in contrast,we pro-vide evidence on the spillover effect of transport stock in the Chi-nese provinces,some of which were characterized by a low level of economic development and also by a short supply of transport infrastructure in most of the periods under analysis.Therefore, some lessons for emerging economies,which are also having a large working population,can be derived from our results.

Based on this study,transport capital is associated with in-creased output within a region,positive network spillovers,and negative(or positive)output spillovers.The positive spillovers ex-ist at the all-China level,but the Chinese regions have considerable variance in their spatial spillovers across the different periods un-der analysis.Economic growth gains from transport infrastructure in the same region may come at the expense of other regions as there is clear evidence of negative spillovers from mobile produc-tion factors.In terms of policy implications,the following conclu-sions are possible.

(1)Based on the empirical results in Sections3.2and4.1,we

suggest that the investment policy should give priority to the development of cross-regional transport networks instead of intra-regional construction.The existence of spa-tial externalities emerging from the contribution of trans-port infrastructure to regional growth implies that the decision for the provision of transport infrastructure should be made within a‘‘supra-regional’’perspective.Due to the network characteristics of transport facilities,the central government should pay special attention to the regional coordination of transport construction among lower admin-istrative units,such as provinces,in order to avoid region-oriented investment modes.By altering investment patterns in transport infrastructure relative to those of the neighbor-ing regions,each region has the ability to modify the size of its transport stock at the expense or to the bene?t of its neighbor(Lall,2007).Thus,the central government should give guidelines and constraints for decision-making by local government on their investment patterns.

(2)According to the analysis in Sections3.2,4.2and4.3,we

believe that at the regional level,relevant industrial policies for the lagging regions are urgently needed due to the exis-tence of negative spillovers.The industrial agglomeration effects induced by transport development will lead to an increased transfer of industrial activity from western,north-eastern,central China to eastern China,especially the tech-nology-intensive industries.Since labor costs have not yet hindered the economic development in the eastern prov-inces,transport infrastructure development cannot generate industrial expansion there.Thus we can deduce that in the coming years,the technology-intensive industries in the other regions would still transfer to the eastern region due to agglomeration effects.Due to the possible presence of negative spillovers of transport infrastructure arising from these factor migrations,local governments in underdevel-oped areas should alter their industrial policies to avoid redistribution of economic activities.Targeted region-spe-ci?c industrial policies are needed,such as favorable tax pol-icies and lower interest rates for loans for investments in local labor-intensive and technology-intensive industries (Liu et al.,2011).

Acknowledgements

We thank the anonymous reviewer and the editor for their con-structive comments and valuable suggestions.We express our appreciation for the support of the project entitled‘Public Policy Simulation Facing Complex Environment’granted National Nature and Science Foundation at China(No.71073037),and Short Term Visiting Study Funding of Harbin Institute of Technology,China. We thank Mr.Yang Yong for his contributions on the map making. References

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