argument高频前50提纲+中文分析
1. 53, （生命科学/科学假说/并列）Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants(1)
who showed signs of mild distress(4) when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn(2), a time when their mothers' production of melatonin(3)—a hormone known to affect some brain functions—would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children—now teenagers—who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy(5). Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness(4) during infancy and this shyness continues into later life(6).★★★★
1.The sample of the mentioned study is too limited. (quantity of the sample)★★★
2.No direct evidence is provided to show that it is the high levels of mothers’ production of
Melatonin that resulted in the distress showed by the infants studied.(confusing concurrence with causality)★★★★
3.The author fails to prove that increased levels of mothers’ production of Melatonin will
directly affect their infants. (U.A)★★★★
4.The author simply equates mild distress with shyness. (U.C)★★★★
5.Different individuals may define the term shy in various ways. (definition of the term ‘shy’)
★★★★
6.Many other genetic or environmental factors will cause shyness in those teenagers. (I.T)
★★★★
25 infants,mild distress 论断：出生前某素的高含量会使婴儿害羞，而且这种害羞会继续。因为研究者在13年前对25个对陌生刺激表现敏感的婴儿进行了研究，发现他们比其他婴儿更多地在秋季怀上。而秋季母亲体内的影响大脑功能的某素产量会因为日光的下降而天然上升。如今这25名婴儿都十几岁了，今年一项跟踪调查发现他们大部分都认为自己很害羞。·论断忽略了一个前提，就是某素是否会导致婴儿害羞。论者没有提供任何对某素的科学研究，以说明某素的功能或是作用是什么。论者甚至没有提供资料证明某素是否会对婴儿产生影响。虽然论者说某素是一种对某些大脑功能有影响的荷尔蒙，但并没有告诉我们这种影响是对母亲，还是对胎儿。·论断的论据没有说服力。论断引用一项13年前对25个对陌生刺激反应敏感的婴儿的研究和今年的跟踪研究。但首先论者没有提供资料表明婴儿表现出来的敏感一下是因为害羞，我们不能排除这是因为刺激带来的生理上的不舒服。而在跟踪研究中，论者也没有提供有关这些孩子在这十几年里的生活环境的资料，我们不能排除环境对孩子性格的影响。·论断的结论很武断。论断某素的高含量会导致婴儿害羞，并在后面的生活中延续。但显然性格的形成有很多原因，后天的环境与经历也非常重要。结论：若要增加说服力，论者还需要提供有关科学研究资料，进一步说明某素对胎儿能造成什么样的影响。而且是否这种影响是永久的，无法消除的，论者也需要再进一步思考。
2. 51，（医疗/建议/对比）The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar
pills(3), although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced(1,2). Therefore, all patients(4) who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics(5) as part of their treatment." ★★★★
1.The author does not inform us about the severity of injuries, physical conditions of the two
groups of patients. (I.C)★★★★
2.There might be other differences between treatments offered by the two doctors.(I.C)★
★★★
3.Sugar pills may cause negative effects on the healing of the second group of patients. (I.T)
★★
4.Not all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain will suffer from secondary
infections. (C.S)★★★★
5.Not all patients with muscle strain are suitable to taking antibiotics.(feasibility of the
conclusion)★★★★
secondary infections,muscle strain 论断：要建议有肌肉拉伤的病人服用抗生素。因为医生最近证实二次感染会防碍病人快速康复。在一项对两组病人的研究中，第一组病人由专门从事体育药品的医生治疗，并在整个治疗中服用抗生素，他们比一般的病人快40%康复；第二组病人由普通医生治疗，尽管病人以为服用的是抗生素，但实际吃的是糖片，他们的康复时间没有明显下降。·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是二次感染一定会发生。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明二次感染会发生在肌肉拉伤的病人身上，或是这种病人容易发生二次感染。·论断引用的论据没有说服力。论断引用了一项分组研究。但是首先论者没有提供任何有关两组病人的资料。有关他们的年龄、性别以及其他生理特征。有可能服用抗生素的一组病人比较年轻，或是本身生理机能好，而不服用的一组病人可能都是体质弱的人。这样就不能说明是抗生素而不是其他原因使得病人康复快。另外两位医生的经验和水平也会影响病人康复的速度，一般来说运动医生会比普通医生更了解肌肉的问题，所以由他治疗的病人康复快，就不能排除是因为他的水平高或是治疗有针对性造成，这样也不能说明是抗生素使得病人康复快。第三，不服抗生素的一组食用了糖片，而论者没有给出资料证明这种糖片不会影响病人的康复。所以对这两组病人的研究并不能说明抗生素能使病人康复快。·论断太武断。论者由二次感染会防碍病人快速康复而认为要建议病人服用抗生素。但是抗生素除了会杀菌防止感染外，还可能会带来其他问题，比如副作用，也可能有的病人会对抗生素过敏。对于这些情况论者没有考虑进来。结论：为加强说服力，论者还应该进一步提供有关肌肉拉伤的病人中二次感染的概率有多少，并提供一份科学的研究，证明在相同医生、相同病征、相同病人生理条件以及其他治疗手段、环境相同的情况下，抗生素是能使病人早日康复。
3. 45, （动物/推测/并列）The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters(1), the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends(2) that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns(4) across the frozen sea(3)."★★★★★
1.The accuracy of the reports from local hunters can be cast doubt on. (selective sample)★
★★★
2.The global warming trends may have no effects on the specific region mentioned by the
editorial. (C.S)★★★★
3.Alternative explanations can also account for the decline in arctic deer population.(NCR)
★★★★
4.The change in climate patterns does not necessarily lead to the decline in deer population,
deer may adapt themselves to the new weather by certain means. (NCR)★★★★
Arctic deer 论断：鹿的数目下降的原因是气温上升。因为气温上升使得海上的冰融化，鹿无法按照传统在冰冻的海面上迁徒。他举例说，最近当地的猎人报告说鹿的数目在下降，而这种下降又伴随全球气温上升的趋势。·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是当地的气温的确在上升。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明当地的气温比以前高了。·得出论断的前提是鹿的数目的确在下降。但是论者仅用当地猎人的报告，不足以证明。因为很有可能猎人只是因为打不到鹿，而认为鹿数目在下降。但是这些猎人活动的时间、范围以及习惯是否与鹿相同都会影响到他们是否能看见鹿。·论断的另一个前提是，气温上升会导致鹿数目下降。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明如果气温上升，环境改变，鹿就会死亡。气温上升或许会使鹿生存的环境发生变化，它们的活动模式或许必需有所改变，但这些都不必造成鹿死亡。·论断引用的证据没有说服力。论断说鹿数目下降的同时伴随全球气温上升的趋势。但全球势趋不能代表本地状况，很有可能全球某些地方气温升高很快，使得全球气温上升，但本地的气温仍可能不变，甚至下降。·论者的结论很武断。他认为是气温上升改变了鹿的迁徒模式，而不是其他原因导致鹿数目下降。但是显然猎人是否有过度猎杀、鹿的某种食物最近是不是大面积减少等等都能使得鹿数目下降。结论：论者若要增加说服力，还因提供目前鹿数目的变化情况，以及当地气温是否有上升。另外鹿的生存环境是否还存在其他的威胁也需要调查。
4.7, （政治经济，社会/提议/并列）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council(3), because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled(1), air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses(2). If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved(4,5)." ★★★148
1.The argument unfairly assumes that last year's increase in the number of factories was due
to the city council's decisions—rather than to some other phenomenon—and that this increase poses environmental problems for Clearview. (NCR)★★★★
2.The argument also assumes unfairly that last year's increase in the number of patients
reporting respiratory problems indicates worsening environmental problems in Clearview.
(NCR)★★★★
3.The editorial provides no evidence to substantiate the assumption that Braun was a factor in
the city council’s decisions. (I.I)★★
4.The mere fact that Green is a member of the Good Earth Coalition hardly suffices to prove
her willingness and ability to help solve Clearview's environmental problems. (I.E)★★★★★
5.The author provides no firm evidence that electing Green is necessary to solve those
problems, or that electing Green would suffice. (necessity and sufficiency of the solution)★★★
Clearview mayoral election 论断：选Ann Green，环境问题肯定能解决，因为他是Good Earth Coalition。论断认为人们没有选另一位政府成员是因为现在的环境太糟糕，污染非常严重。·论断太武断。论为选一位环境组织的成员当市长，环境污染问题就能解决。但实际上作为环境组织的成员只能表明他对环境很关注，而政府要解决污染问题，除了关心以外还会有大量具体工作要作。比如协调其他部门，比如对工业生产的了解等等，这些都不是出身就必然能具备的素质。论断没有提供该候选人的这方面资料。·论断不公平。说现行政府不关心保护环境，举例说是过去几年工厂的数目加倍，空气污染的程度在上升，而当地医院治疗的呼吸病患者也比以前多了25%。但是论断没有告诉我们新增的工厂是否是污染型产业，这些工厂有没有采取防止污染的措施，没有这种资料我们无法判断这些工厂对于环境污染的影响程度，因为很可能这些工厂是污染少的新兴产业，或是采取了有效措施。而说到空气污染的问题，一方面这是一个全球共同面临的状况，论断没有说明该市与其他相同特征的城市相比，或是与早前的历史相比，这个数字是大是小，从而无法判断，另一方面空气污染并不一定是因为该市自身的问题，因为风向的流动，污染有可能是从其他地方来的。而医院里呼吸病病人增多同样缺乏判断根据，呼吸病发生的原因很多，有天生的，有因为老化的，论断没有说明新增病人的病因是否因为污染引起。·论断对另一名候选人也很不公平。就算真像论断所说现行政府不关心环境，就认为他也不关心境。论断没有提供该候选人是否有破坏环境的纪录，是否曾促进一些破坏环境的措施。因为不能排除他也很关心环境保护，只是他的声音被政府其他声音所淹没。结论：论断非常不公平也很武断。他既没有提供候选人在解决
环境问题上的成果和能力，也没有提供任何可以证明现行政府以及另一候选人不关心环境的证据。如果要号召选民们同意他的意见，他还需要进一步提供这方面的资料。
5. 35, （食品，保健/预言/并列）The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study(2). Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods(3). With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia.(4,5)" ★★★★
1.Salicylates may not have the same effect as aspirin in treating headaches although they
are of the same chemical family. (F.A)★★★★
2.Other factors may also lead to the decline in the number of headaches in the study
mentioned above. (NCR)★★★★★
3.The author does not inform us what fraction of foods consumed by citizens of Mentia
contains salicylates, and how many of the citizens prefer such kind of foods. (I.I)★★★
4.The author fails to consider factors other than food, such as environment, lifestyle, etc.
that may result in the increase in the number of headaches suffered by citizens of Mentia would increase (I.T)★★★
5.Granted that salicylates are effective in treating headaches, we cannot hastily infer that
they would also be effective in preventing headaches. (U.C)★★★
headaches，residents of Mentia 论断：S的新用途会继续平稳地降低居民平均头疼。因为S 与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭。过去几十年中食品公司把S做为防腐剂添加到食品中，一项长达二十年的研究发现这种商业用途的增加伴随着头疼报告的下降。·论断的前提不被必然保证。论断的前提是S能治疗或降低头疼。但是论者并没有提供有关的科学研究以证明S 具有这样的作用。虽然论者说S与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭，但这只能说明他们的化学结构相近，并不能保证必然具有与阿斯匹林一样的作用。·论断的论据不具备说服力。论断引用一份二十年的研究，这份研究说在S被食品商用于防腐剂的年代里，研究中报告头疼的人少了。首先论者没能排除有人头疼但没报告的可能性。其次是他也没能排除其他因素导致头疼下降的可能，比如医学发达，环境质量好了，人们生活规律了等等。这都不能说明S的食用降低了头疼的发生。·论者的结论非常武断。他认为头疼还会有持续稳步下降，但就算S 真能影响头疼也还可能会有其他因素导致头疼上升，比如生活节奏加快、工作压力突然加大等等。另外如果S对头疼有作用，是否是越多越好，论断也没有给出依据。结论：论者所做的结论很武断，论者若想增加说服力还应该提供具体关于S的医疗作用的研究。
6. 188, （医药卫生/建议/对比）A new report suggests that men and women experience pain
very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications(3). When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids—a painkiller—to 28 men and 20 women(1) who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported(5) feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women(2). This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required(4), whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication(6). In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications(7) on men versus women.★★200
1. The number of subjects might be insufficient to constitute a representative sample.
(quantity of the sample)★★★
2. Other differences between those men and women could also explain the difference
between their feelings on pain. (I.C)★★★★
3. The effect of kappa opioids on pain feeling could not be hastily generalized to all other
pain medications. (C.S)★★★★
4. The effect of kappa opioids on patients who have their wisdom teeth extracted could not
be hastily generalized to all conditions where pain medication is required. (C.S)★★★
5. The level of pain reported by the patients may not reflect their actual level of pain. (U.C)
★★★
6. Without more information concerning the thorough effect of kappa opioids, and lacking
comparison between the effectiveness of kappa opiods and other available pain medications, we cannot conclude that it is not suitable for all male patients merely based on the fact cited above. (adv:disadv/confusing comparison and variation)★★★
7. Granted that pain medications should be prescribed discriminatingly, the necessity of
reevaluating the effects of all medications on men versus women is unwarranted.
(C.S/necessity of the solution)★★★★
men and women experience pain very differently from one another 论断：只要止痛药需要就要给女的开K，而男的应该开别的药。另外研究者应该对所有药对于男女不同的效果重新评估。因为一份新的报告显示，男女对痛的经历非常不同，医生应该考虑给他们开不同的止痛药。研究中给在拨智齿的28个男人和20个女人开同样剂量的K，女的比男的少说痛，而且药效女的也明显长一些。·前提，K对女的有效，对男的没效。拨牙一项不能代表所有的情况。·前提，男女对疼痛的经历不同，没有直接证据证明。而·论据，问题多。首先，人太少，没有代表性。其次，也许不是性别带来的不同，而是其他体质上的问题。没有说是否每一个女人都比每一个男人少说痛。第三，心理影响。报告的痛有心理作用，而医学关心的止痛是生理问题。不排除女的意志力坚强，所以少说痛。·就算男女对K的经历不一样，没有理由存在需要对所有的药都重新评估。
7. 161, （社会/论断/对比）In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the
University of Leeville, most respondents(1) said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study(4,5) conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out(2) of each of the public libraries(6) in Leeville was the mystery novel(3). Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits(7).★★★
1.We do not know how many, and what kind of citizens responded to the survey, thus the
representativeness of the result is open to doubt. (are the respondents representative?)★★★
2.The frequency of certain type of book being checked out from the public libraries is not a
good indication of what kind of reading material do citizens prefer. (U.C)★★★★
3.The author does not analyze to what extent the literary classics and mystery novels
mentioned in the argument overlap. (I.I)★★★★
4.The author fails to provide evidence to show that the result of the follow-up study is
representative of all-time reading habits of Leeville citizens. (C→F)★★★
5.We do not know how long is the interim period between the two studies, many conditions
may change after sufficient long time.(P→C)★★★★
6.The author unfairly assumes that the respondents in the first study borrow most of their
reading materials from public libraries. (U.A)★★★
7.The author fails to consider other explanation that could explain the discrepancy between
the respondent s’ answer and the result of the follow-up study, e.g. if the respondents were forthright, if they correctly understood the survey’s question, etc. (necessity of the solution)★★★
reading habits of Leeville citizens 论断：居民不是最爱看古典文学。一项由L校进行的该地区居民阅读习惯研究中，大多数被访者说他们最爱看古典文学。但是他们随后进行的研究又发现该地区每个公共图书馆里最常被借的是神话小说。·古典文学里有很多都是神话小说。奥德赛，希望神话都是古典小说。First at all , the mystery novels can also be literary classics. The arguer undercounted the scope of "literary classics" . in fact, all book write by writers past and made great successes in readers can be called "literary classics", there are many mystery novels such as the "Odessey" and "Greek Mysterious story" have long been considered as literary classics. Moreover, each reader has his/her own concept about "literary classics", therefore, the arguer's conclusion about they had misrepresented theri reading habits is unfounded. ·公共图书馆不是唯一的书源。可以买，可以去私人图书馆。有可能是因为公共图书馆里古典小说藏量不丰富，或是神话小说过多而造成的。人们只是顺便借来看看。·第二次研究时间多长，有可能只是暂时现象。比如流行。
8. 169, （人事，学校建设/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.
"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier(1) living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most(5) gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire(3) staff(5), we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we
hire(2,4,7,9).Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent(6) because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers(8)." ★★
1.The fact that professors are happier living in small towns might be due to other factors,
but not because they are living together with their spouses. (NCR)★★
2.The chairperson fails to consider the possible differences between Bronston College and
Pierce University, thus merely copying Bronston’s activity may not be same effective at Pierce. (F.A)★★★
3.The chairperson fails to point out what fraction of our faculty will be new members, thus
the assumption that the morale of entire staff could be improved is open to doubt. (I.I/U.A)★★★
4.The chairperson fails to consider many other relevant factors that may influence new
professors’ decision. (I.T/sufficiency of the solution)★★★★
5.Even if the proposed actions are effective in attracting new professors, we cannot
guarantee that the action will attract the most gifted teachers and researchers, and necessarily improving the morale of stuff. (sufficiency of the solution)★★★
6.The chairperson does not analyze the cost of the proposed actions, hence we cannot
evaluate if the new professors attracted by the action are worthy of the investment.
(adv:disadv)★★★
7.The chairperson fails to consider if the university has the capability of offering
employment to the spouse of every new faculty member. (feasibility of the conclusion)★★★★
8.The chairperson fails to illustrate that new gifted professors will not accept our offers if
we do not offer such employment. (necessity of the solution)★★★
9.The chairperson overlooks other better ways to achieve the same result. (necessity of the
solution)★★
professors happier living when spouses in the same geographic area 论断：为吸引最有才能的老师和研究者来我们学校并提高整体员工的士气，我们应该给每位新员工的配偶提供工作机会。因为如果配偶有工作的机会，新教授会更愿意来我们这儿。尽管不可能所有位子都被接受或是看成理想的选择，花在这上的钱也会很值。一个也在小城市的B校的研究发现，男女教授都会更快乐地生活在小镇上，当他们的配偶也在同一个地区工作时。B校的研究描述不清楚，无法判断是否在一起生活会比不在一起生活更快乐，所以无法判断是否准确。但另外推论中也同样有问题。·提高士气，愉快的夫妻生活不保证高的士气，校风，工作，工
资都很重要·在一起生活愉快，但没有证据证明配偶的工作地点是教授们选择工作的唯一或重要标准。所以不一定更吸引人。·如果这笔花费不小，就不能给每个新员工都提供。·最有才能的？
9. 203, （医疗卫生/论断/对比）
days(2); at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days(1). Also, the cure rate(2) among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice(3) that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient(5) than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints(6) about service at the local hospital(4). Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals(8) is more economical(7) and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals." ★★
1.The time length of a patient’s stay is not a good indication of the quality of treatment in
the hospital. (U.C)★★★★
2.Other factors might also explain the shorter length of patient stay and higher cure rate in
the Saluda hospital. (I.C)★★★★★
3.We do not know the severity of illness among patients in the Saluda hospital and in
Megaville hospital, thus cannot evaluate the cure rate in the two hospitals. (I.I)★★★★
4.More employees per patient and few complaints do not necessarily indicate that treatment
in Saluda hospital is better than that in Megaville hospital. (U.C)★★★★
5. A higher employee-patient ratio may just indicate organizational inefficiency at Saluda.
(negative evidence)★★★
6.Without the total number of patients going to each hospital, we cannot evaluate what
percentage of their patients complained. (V.D)★★★
7.The author fails to provide the actual expenditures of patients in the two hospitals, thus
the assumption that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospital is more economical is unwarranted. (I.I)★★
8.The author hastily generalizes that treatment in other smaller, nonprofit hospitals will
necessarily be more economical and of better quality than that in larger, for-profit hospitals. (C.S)★★★★
nonprofit hospital 论断：小的非赢利医院的治疗比大的赢利医院更经济质量也更好。因为S 的非营利医院病人的平均住院天数是两天，附近M市大的营利医院的平均住院天数是六天。另外，S的疗愈率是M的两倍。S每位医生看的病人也比M的多，抱怨也少。·前提，治疗质量。没有直接的对比数字，无法得出。提供的住院天数没有意义。重病的人一般去大医院，而且由于S是非营利的，对资源使用控制并不完全视病情需要，不排除有可能病人没好就让人走人。·前提，经济。乍一看有可能，因为S不赢利，M赢利，不过如果把治疗效果考虑进来，情况就要复杂一些。提供的每位医生看病人的比较没有意义。因为S没有钱支付更多的人员工资，所以每个人看的病人多，每位病人得到的治疗少，但又不能保证医生水平会比M高，所以这一点是不被保证的。·抱怨，因为不知道两家医院接待病人的情况所以
无从比较。另外，S非营利可能，病人也就不抱怨了，或者是穷人，不愿惹麻烦。而M就不一样了，因为营利，人们对它会挑剔一些。
10.209, （人事/提议/——）The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year(1), under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably(2). Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings(6,7). Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry(4), a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years(3). Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably(5)." ★★26,85,140,225
1.The manager fails to illustrate that the decreased profits in the last three quarters are not
temporary fluctuation but will continue in the future. (P→F)★★★
2.Many other factors could also contribute to the decline in the profits of Fancy Toy
Company. (NCR)★★★★
3.The manager unfairly attributes the increased profits of Starlight Jewelry to the leadership
of Rosa Winnings. (NCR)★★★★
4.Even if Rosa is highly competent in her current position, we could not ensure that she can
also do an excellent job as the manager of the toy company. (F.A)★★★★
5.The company’s profits will not nec essarily increase merely because the replacement of the
manager. (sufficiency of the solution)★★★★
6.The manager fails to consider if Rosa is willing to accept the offer. (feasibility of the
conclusion)★★
7.The manager fails to inform us if there are any other competent candidates we can choose
from. (necessity of the solution)★★★
Fancy Toy Company 论断：我们应任命R，并要求P辞职。因为尽管R的薪水是P的两倍，但他会使我们的利润迅速显著上升。而在过去3个季度里，现任总裁P的领导下，我们的利润下降明显。R现在是S珠宝店的头，这家公司的利润在过去几年里一直急剧增加。·被忽略的前提，R会来这儿。这儿效益这么不好。·前提，R能使我们的利润迅速上升。没有直接的证据证明R对我们公司的情况了解并有很好的建议。而关于他在珠宝店的业绩不说明问题：首先行业不同，其次珠宝店的成绩不是他一人的，员工的作用。·前提，P的能力不行。首先3个季度的工作没有说服力。其次，利润下滑不是他一个人的原因。可能是以前留下的隐患。第三，没准下滑是暂时的，他采取了一些措施，效果在长期。·结论：R薪水是P的两倍，利润能增长多少却不知道。
11. 238, （就业/提议/对比）The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.
"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more(1) job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers(4) from prospective employers(5). But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment(2) had found full-time jobs(4) within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study(3). To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment(8), we must offer more courses in business and computer technology(6) and hire additional job counselors(7) to help students with their resumés and interviewing skills." ★★9,211
1.The president fails to inform us the total amount of students at each college, thus we
cannot compare the number of job counselors per student. (V.D/I.C)★★★
2.The survey does not include all the graduates in MVC, thus it is impossible to evaluate
the employment result in MVC. (selective sample)★★★★
3.The comparison between GMC and MVC is incomplete, many other factors would
contribute to the differences in the employment results of the two colleges. (I.C)★★★★★
4.Without further description of the job offers received by graduating seniors of the two
colleges, we cannot evaluate if Mira Vista's job-placement record is comparatively poor.
(I.I)★★★★
5.The president fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that GMC has
more business course s and job counselors than MVC and the fact that 90% of last year’s graduating seniors from GMC got job offers.(confusing concurrence with causality)★★★★★
6.The president fails to convince us that offering more courses in computer technology will
necessarily contribute to the employment of graduates in MVC. (I.E)★
7.GMC and MVC might not be comparable in several aspects such as reputation, ranking,
alumni, etc. (F.A)★★★★
8.The proposed actions might be neither sufficient nor necessary for Mira Vista to improve
its employment result. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution)★★★
more business courses and more job counselors 论断：我们必须提供更多的商业课和计算机技术，并雇用更多的职业顾问帮助学生做好简历和面见技巧。因为隔壁的G校比我们多有这些多西，去年他们90%的毕业生从潜在雇主那里拿到了工作offer，不过M只有70%报告办公室会去找工作的高年级学生在毕业后三个月里找到了全职工作，而且只有一半的学生工作与专业相关。·前提，我们的学生不好找工作。首先70%和90%不说明问题，学生数目如果相差很大的话。其次，M校的学生拿到OFFER，没说去，可能工作很不好。而我们学校的学生70%找到的都是好工作。·前提，提供商业课程会使学生好找工作。没有证据证明找到工作的学生是因为商业课程多。如果说毕业生大多工作与专业不对口，在一家企业工作是否就是从商呢？那要是卖书的公司，算是在干什么的。M校可能是商科学校，而我们主要是理科。事实上专业不同对课程需要也是不同。·结论：雇用职业顾问可能能够使学生更好地
表现自己，但很多不是面试技巧和简历能解决的。还得看实力。
12. 14, （商业/决策/先并列后递进）The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey(1) conducted last month indicated that many consumers(3) were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand(6) three months in a row(4,5). Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners(2) this coming spring(7)."★★1,40, 117, 219
1.The argument depends on a dubious assumption that the national levels of satisfaction with
store-bought groceries could reflects the level of a certain area. (C.S)★★★★
2.The argument falsely assumes that consumers who are dissatisfied with store-bought groceries
are likely to grow their own vegetables instead. (U.A/I.E)★★★★★
3.The arguer fails to provide any information about what fraction of consumers buy their
vegetables from supermarkets. (V.D/selective sample)★★
4.The arguer fails to convince us that the gardening magazine Great Gardens is indeed
popular among residents. (I.I)★★
5.We do not know the content and circulation of the magazine, thus the fact that the
magazine has sold out three months in a row does not necessarily indicate that people in this area are interested in planting vegetables themselves. (I.I/I.E)★★★
6.The situation at one certain news stand does not prove that people in this area are
interested in gardening. (quantity of the sample)★★★
7.The arguer fails to consider the possible cost of the proposed action. (I.T/adv:disadv)★
★★★
Green Thumb Gardening Center,growing their own vegetables 论断：大量扩大蔬菜种子的储存种类，就能提高赢利。因为有证据表明消费者对于自己种蔬菜越来越有兴趣，他举例说当种的一种农艺杂志很有市场。另外他说，一项全国性调查显示消费者对于超市里蔬菜的质量不满意，以说明为什么人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣。·论断的前提人们愿意来这儿买种子自己回家种蔬菜。论者举例说当地有一种农艺杂志三个月里很快卖光，他认为这是人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣的一个证明。但实际上农艺杂志的内容是什么，论者没有告诉我们，买这本杂志的人目的是什么，是为种菜吗？还是为了美化自己的花园去种花？如果杂志里有关种蔬菜的内容非常少，就不足以说明人们对于自己种蔬菜感趣。另外论者甚至没有提供这份杂志的具体销量，仅说它很快卖光。要知道，杂志发行量若很小的话，不需要有很多人对它感兴趣也能有这样的效果。·为了说明人们为什么会对自己种蔬菜感兴趣，论者提到了一份全国性的调查，这份调查表明人们对于超市里蔬菜不满意。但这个论据首先是不合适的。一份全国性调查并不能说明一个城郊地区的状况。因为很有可能这份全国性的调查主要集中在大城市，被调查的人也都是住市中心的人，在那里超市可能是他们购买蔬菜的最主要途径。但这显然与一个城郊地区的特征不符，这里的人很可能比城市里的人更容易买到新鲜、
好的蔬菜，而且他们也不像城市里那样依赖超市，还有杂货店甚至是农场。另外对于超市里的蔬菜不满意，也不必然带来自己种菜，这将花费人们大量的时间和精力，论断没有说这份调查是否表明不满意超市蔬菜的人都想自己种菜。·论断认为扩弃种子种类就会带来营利，也犯了一个常识性错误，太过武断。如果说种类多顾客挑选余地大，更容易更多地购买，那么其中的成本问题论者没有提供。是不是具体多几种肯定会有市场的种类会更好一些？扩充种类必然会增加成本，那么相应的赢利就会被抵销。这其中的细节问题论者都没有考虑到，武断得出结论很有可能造成失败。结论：论者没有调查清楚人们对于园艺的兴趣是什么，又引用了一份不合适的调查来支持他的观点，得出的结论必然是错误的。要想让人们接受他的建议，论者还需要提供关于愿意自己种蔬菜的人有多少，他们为什么这么做，并对市场有更进一步的了解，究意什么样的种类更吸引人。
13. 137, （城市，生活休闲/预言/递进+并列）The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough(1). But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River(2). Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase(3),so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements(5) to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River(4)."★★
1.The author simply assumes that it is the quality of the water in Mason River that prevents
residents from using it for recreational activities. (NCR)★★★★
2.No evidence could illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed plan, and how much time
would it take for the plan to be effective, thus we cannot ensure that recreational use of the river will automatically increase. (I.I)★★★★★
3.The author fails to consider if Mason River is suitable for those water sports favored by
residents in Mason, and if residents are willing to use the river for recreational activities.
(feasibility of the conclusion)★★★★
4.Granted that recreational use of the river is to increase, we are not convinced that the use of
the publicly owned lands along the river will also increase. (U.A/H.G)★★★
5.The author does not provide evidence to illustrate the necessity of increasing budget for
improvement s to the public lands. (necessity of the solution)★★★
use the River for recreational activity 论断：政府需要为河边的公共场所的改善增加支出，因为河上娱乐可能会上升。目前居民很少用河进行娱乐，尽管对他们的调查一直说这是他们最喜欢的娱乐方式。由于一直有关于河水质量的抱怨，居民必须避开河水。不过这种情况会有改变，负责我们这个区的机构宣布了清理河的计划。
·前提，河水干净了河上娱乐会上升。尽管论者本地居民一直把水上运动列为他们最喜欢的运动，但由于长时间很少有人使用它，我们并不知道居民是否愿意在M河上进行这种娱乐。
M河有可能不适合。
·前提，河水会干净。机构宣布了计划，不一定河水就能干净，污染程度，还有工作效率，都不一定能达到标准。
·结论，公共场所需要改进吗？不一定吧。
结论：这篇社论没有了解当地情况，也不知道前景如何，政府的决策还需考虑。
14. 20，（交通安全/提议/类比）The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians(4), the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies(5) from 50 per day to 30 per day(6) during the summer season(7). By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents(1,4) that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau(3), when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals(2)." ★★★★
1.The author assumes that all other conditions in Balmer that might affect the rate of
moped-pedestrian accidents will remain unchanged after the restrictions are enacted. (P→F)★★★
2.The author fails to consider other possible explanations for the 50% decline in Torseau's
moped accident rate last year. (NCR)★★★★
3.Balmer Island and Torseau may not be comparable. (F.A)★★★★
4.The author provides no evidence that the same restrictions that served to reduce the
incidence of all "moped accidents" by 50% would also serve to reduce the incidence of accidents involving "mopeds and pedestrians" by 50%. (U.C)★★★
5.We do not know what percentage of mopeds in Balmer Island is rented by the six
companies. (V.D)★★★
6.The author fails to provide accurate data about the current number of mopeds rented by
the six companies per day. (I.I)★★
7.The proposed regulation may not be necessary for the author’s purpose. (necessity of the
solution)★★★
Balmer Island,moped 结论：降低租车数量，镇里的事故会减少50%。因为隔壁去年这样做取得了这样的成绩。·论断的前提是采取措施降低事故是有必要的，但这样的情况却在论断中看不到。论者没有提供任何有关镇里事故的资料，甚至没有说镇里有没有这样的事故，数量是多少，造成的危害是什么。因为不像汽车，这种事故一般都不会严重，而从论断中我们看不到有这样做的必要。·论断还有一个前提是出事故的车主要是租来的车，这非常不公平。如果说镇里的事故需要解决，也不能只简单地限制租车数量。镇里有多少这种车，出事故的有多少是租来的车，这此论断都没提供。如果说事故主要是自己的车，那么这种做法会影响公司利润，会引来他们不满。·论断的前提中还有一个漏洞，就是他认为6家租车公司每天的租车量都超过了30，但这也没被论断所保证。论断没有提供目前实际每家的租车数量，
如果说目前每家的租车数还不足30，那么就算真有事故，也不可能因此而有所减少。·论断引用的论据是他人成功经验，但这种成功并不必然出现在这里。论据没有提供任何有关两地面临的问题是否相同，也没有提供他们的事故与我们相比是多是少。如果说降低50%以后他们的事故仍比我们多，显然就不具备可借鉴。结论：论断缺乏对事故及其当地情况的基本了解，仅凭他人经验就提出建议非常荒谬。要想说服，还需要提供当地事故数量、危害以及租来车的事故多少等等。
15. 65, （商业/决策/并列）The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year(1), however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store(2) were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers(3). Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way(4) to improve profits(6) in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese(5) and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses." ★★★
1.The situation last year may be unusual, it does not indicate that domestic cheddar cheeses
will also be popular in the future. (P→F)★★★
2.The situation at the newest store might not be representative of all stores. (selective
sample/C.S)★★★★
3.The president does not provide any information about the subscribers of Cheese of the
World, thus they may not be representative of United States consumers. (are the respondents representative?)★★★★
4.Many other better ways might be available to improve profits of our stores. (necessity of
the solution)★★★
5.The president fails to consider the negative effects of discontinuing the inventory of
imported cheeses. (adv:disadv)★★★★
6.The president does not provide any information about the actual profit of domestic and
imported cheese respectively, thus we cannot evaluate the president’s conclusion. (I.I)★★★★★
cheese stores, 论断：提高我们所有商店利润的最好办法就是停止储存很多种进口奶酪，而主要集中在国产之士上。因为这样可以降低存货费用。新开的几家商店里去年卖得最好的五种之士都是从W进的某之士，而且之士世界杂志的一份最新调查显示，对国产之士的偏爱在他的订阅者中上升。·论断前提不一定成立。前提是这样做能使我们所有商店的利润提高。但是论者没有提供任何资料使得这个前提必然成立。他既没有提供所有商店的国产奶酪销售情况，也没有提供我们顾客对于奶酪选择的偏爱。·论断的论据没有说服力。首先新开的几家商店的情况不能说明所有商店，也许他们开在W，或是那儿的人们与W的联系特别紧密。其次卖得最好不能说明利润最高，因为有可能是它们价格特别低，另外新开业卖得好不代表以后也会好，可能这几个牌子最近在做促销活动，这样势头不会保持。·关于杂志的调查。
首先杂志的订阅人数是多少，如果看的人少这份调查就没有代表性。另外什么人订这份杂志，如果它的主要客户不是顾客而是研究之士制造或是销售的人，那么也不能说明顾客中有偏爱国产之士。第三，调查是否公正，我们不排除偏爱进口奶酪的订者没有寄回问卷，或者就没有订这份杂志。·论者结论武断：提高利润的办法还有很多，论者没有提供资料证明这个就比别的好。结论：论者的结论很仓促，没有仔细研究调查的科学性，也没有考虑到新开店的经验是否具有代表性，仓促做出结论可能会导致商店决策错误。
16. 127, （管理/提议/——）The vice president for human resources at Climpson Industries sent the following recommendation to the company's president.
"In an effort to improve our employees' productivity(1), we should implement electronic monitoring of employees' Internet use from their workstations. Employees who use the Internet from their workstations(3) need to be identified and punished if we are to reduce the number of work hours spent on personal or recreational activities(2), such as shopping or playing games(4). By installing software(6) to detect employees' Internet use on company computers, we can prevent employees from wasting time, foster a better work ethic(5) at Climpson, and improve our overall profits(7)." ★★★
1.The vice president fails to provide any information about current performance and
productivity of our employees, thus the assumption that their productivity should be and could be improved is open to doubt. (I.I/U.A/necessity of the solution)★★
2.The vice president unfairly assumes that most of our employees use internet for personal or
recreational activities. (U.A/I.I/necessity of the solution)★★★
3.The vice president ignores the necessity for some employees to use the Internet in their
work. (adv:disadv)★★★★
4.Employees could still spend much time on personal or recreational activities even though
the Internet access is banned. (sufficiency of the solution)★★★★★
5.The vice president overlooks the negative effects of the proposed activity on employees’
morale, thus the better work ethic mentioned above is not guaranteed. (adv:disadv)★★★★★
6.The vice president fails to consider possible negative effects of installing such software on
the performance of computers, and fails to provide the cost of installing the software.
(adv:disadv)★★★
7.Since Climpson’s profits would be det ermined by many factors, adopting the proposal may
not sufficiently ensure greater profits. (sufficiency of the solution)★★★
electronic monitoring of employees' Internet 论断：在公司的电脑上装监测员工因特网使用的软件，可以提高我们整体的利润。因为我们可以防止员工浪费时间，促进好的工作态度。如果想降低员工在工作中花在私事和娱乐活动上的时间，在工作间使用因特网的员工就应该被查出来被并处罚。（都是前提不成立）·装软件可以防止员工浪费时。也许确实可以防止员工在上班期间使用因特网干私事和玩游戏，但不能保证员工通过其他途径的私事和娱乐时间不会上升。比如会有人不能在因特网上买东西了，他就会在上班时间溜出办公事出商场买。·减少干私事可以促进好的工作态度和效率。论者没有提供目前员工的工作态度如何，
私事和娱乐是否已经影响到了他们的工作效果。如果工作不是很多，员工少量的私事和娱乐也许不会影响他们的工作。但公司通过这种监测方式，监测员工的行为，倒有可能引起员工的不满，尽管不表达，这样有可能会使他们消极怠工。·结论值得怀疑，装软件是否会影响电脑的运行，软件的花费的是多少，论者没有提供资料。如果电脑工作的速度会下降，软件的花费过大，也不能提高我们整体的利润。而且利润的上升牵扯到成本、业绩等等内容，不是工作态度好了，就可以上升的。结论：论者没有资料证明目前员工的工作效率和态度已经影响到了公司的运行，所以我们无法判断是否有必要这种对员工行为的进行监测。而监测是否能够促进工作态度也值得怀疑，这样的建议还需要更多的考虑。
17. 186, （生产，管理/预言/对比）The following is a recommendation from the director of personnel to the president of Professional Printing Company.
"In a recent telephone survey(1) of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12 percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over(2). Clearly, if our printing company(3) hires mainly older employees(4), we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors."★★★★
1.Since the survey is a telephone survey, the reliability of its result is suspicious at many
aspects, e.g. the size of the sample, who responded to the survey, if the respondents could exactly understand the questions, if the respondents were forthright when answering the questions, etc.(reliability of the survey)★★★
2.The director fails to make any comparison between the actual productivity of different
groups of employees. (confusing comparison and variation/I.C)★★★★
3.The automobile industry may not be comparable with a printing company. (F.A)★★★
4.The director fails to consider many negative effects of hiring mainly older employees.
(adv:disadv)★★★★★
older employees were less likely having a supervisor 论断：我们印刷公司主要雇用老员工的话，将提高生产率并省下雇指导员的钱。因为一份对汽车工人的电话调查里，老的员工比较少报告当指导员在现场时会提高他们的生产力。·前提，省钱。老工人一般要求的工资都比年轻人高，指导员的钱省下来了，工资却得长。·前提，提高生产力。没有证据证明年轻人的生产力比老工人的低，不管在不在场的问题。而且年轻人一般体力好，少得病，少乱七八糟的事。·论据，太弱。首先，电话调查查的范围，各有多少人，是否准确。其次，调查里没指导员时年轻人的生产力还有可能比老工人高，尽管有人在场时会更高。·结论：两家公司工作不一样，员工要求不一样，没有可比性。
18.18, （道路交通/提议/大并列小类比小递进）The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently(1) lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit(4) and the accident rate throughout Prunty County (2)has decreased only slightly(3). If we want to improve the safety of our roads,we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago(7): increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads(8). Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported(6) accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago(5)."★★★★55,119
1.The author fails to rule out the possibility that not enough time has passed to determine the
effectiveness of this change in reducing the accident rate. (I.E)★★★
2.The author ignores the possibility that the accident rate on the county's major roads has
decreased while on minor roads not subject to the speed-limit reduction it has increased. (I.I)★★★★
3.The argument assumes that all other factors affecting highway accident rates have remained
unchanged since the county lowered its speed limit. (P→F)★★★
4.The fact that most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit does not indicate that the policy
is ineffective. (NCR)★★
5.The author unfairly implies that the higher speed limit in Butler County has not served to
increase the incidence of road accidents in that county. (lack of controlled experiment)★★★
6.The cited statistic involves only "reported" accidents in Butler County, we do not know
the percentage of accidents which are going unreported in that county. (I.I)★★★
7.The situation at Prunty County and Butler County may not be comparable. (F.A)★★★
★
8.The author fails to demonstrate that road improvement will be both sufficient and
necessary to guarantee fewer accidents in Prunty County. (sufficiency/necessity of the solution)★★★★
9.Prunty County，highway safety 论断：要想提高道路安全，就必需改善路况。因为
另一个城市五年前这么做了，他们去年的事故记录比五年低了25%。而该市最近采取的限速措施并不成功，应该取销。因为大多数司机的速度都超过这个限制，事故发生率也只是降低了一点。·论断的前提是改善路况有必要，但论断中没有资料支持这一点。该市的路况是不是很糟，事故发生的主要原因是不是因为路况不好，这些论者都没有提供资料。如果说该市的路况好，事故发生的原因主要是因为超速，那么论断的前提显然就不成立。论断要求改善路况也就没有根据。·论断引用的论据是另一个城市的经验，并说明他们取得了成功。但论者没有告诉我们该市五年前面临的情况，比如道路状况比如事故原因与我们是否相同，也没有告诉我们他们的事故发生率是多少。如果说该市五年前的发生率非常高，现在降低25%以后还是比我们高，那么他们的经验就不值得我们借鉴。·论断认为我们限速的措施不成功，
这一点很不公平。论断说现在大多数的司机速度都在新的限速之上，这说明不是限速的措施本身不成功，而是因为司机没有遵守新的措施而导致事故。为此合理的做法应该是加强监督，保证司机遵守新的限速。而措施是新近实施的，短时间里，又在很多人没遵守的前提下已经小量降低了事故发生率，这说明措施还是有效的。结论：改善路况当然是件好事，但这是不是问题的关键所在？论者要说服我们接受他的观点，他还应该进一步提供有关我们道路状况的资料，以及有多少事故发生原因是因为道路不好，而对于限速的措施则应该加强监督确保落实。
19.56, （艺术，考古/推测，预言/递进）Collectors prize the ancient life-size clay statues of
human figures made on Kali Island but have long wondered how the Kalinese artists were able to depict bodies with such realistic precision. Since archeologists have recently discovered molds of human heads and hands on Kali(1), we can now conclude that the ancient Kalinese artists used molds of actual bodies, not sculpting tools and techniques, to create these statues(2,3).This discovery explains why Kalinese miniature statues were abstract and entirely different in style: molds could only be used for life-size sculptures(4). It also explains why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have been found(5).In light of this development, collectors should expect the life-size sculptures to decrease in value and the miniatures to increase in value(6).★★★★★
1.The recently discovered molds of human heads and hands are not necessarily used by
Kalinese artists for sculpting. (U.A)★★★★
2.Granted those molds were used for sculpture purpose, we cannot hastily conclude that
Kalinese artist also use molds to create all life-size statues. (H.G)★★★★
3.No sufficient evidence is provided to prove that Kalinese artists did not use any sculpting
tools and techniques to create life-size statues. (I.E)★★★
4.Other possible factors would also lead to the differences between miniature statues and
life-size statures. (F.A)★★★★
5.Alternative explanation could also explain why few ancient Kalinese sculpting tools have
been found. (NCR)★★★
6.The author’s assumption that the life-size sculptures will decrease in value and the
miniatures to increase in value is unwarranted. (U.A)★★★★
1.l ife-size clay statues，Kalinese artists 论断：K的艺术家是用实际人体做模型来雕刻的。因为考古学家最近在K发现了一些人头和手的模型。这个发现解释了为什么K的小雕塑是抽象的完全另一种风格，因为模型只能用来做真人大小的雕刻。它同时也解释了为什么很少有古K的工具被发现。论者还认为这将使得真人大小的雕像价值下降，小型雕像价值上升。·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是这些人头和手的模型是用来做雕刻的。但是论者看来只是在猜测，因为他没有提供任何有关与这些被发现在模型有关的雕像。没有资料显示有雕像是根据这些模型做出来的。·论断的论据没有说服力。论者认为K的小雕像与大雕像风格迥异，而且都很抽象，正是因为他们无法用人体做模型。但是论者没有提供资料证明小雕像与大雕像的用途创作者是否一样，因为这些都会使得两者之间存在风格差异，而不一定是因为模型的问题。·论断的另一个论据是说很少有K的雕刻工具被发现出来，但这并不能说明K的工具很少，人体是K的工具。因为工具有可能是因各种原因被毁坏了，
或者仅仅是考古学家还没有找到而已。·论断很武断。就算这些模型是用来雕刻的，但并不能得出K的所有人体大小的雕像都是用这种方法制作出来的。毕竟被发现的也只是一些头部和手部的模型，这至少不能排除其它部位不用这种方式制作。·论断也没有根据。论者认为这个发现将使得大雕像价值下降，小雕像价值上升。但论者并没有提供任何资料证明用模型做的雕像就不值得研究，或是收藏家们对于人体模型很反感，或是他们对小雕像的兴趣有所增长。结论：论者若要加强说服力，还需要提供资料解释是否有雕像是用这些模型做出来的，并还需要提供有收藏家对这一发现的看法。
20. 76, （保健/论断/——）The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers(1) participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap(2) and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt(3). Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin(4)." ★★★
1.The volunteers may not be representative of all consumers using Luxess. (are the
respondents representative?)★★★
2.The author fails to rule out the possibility that it is the mild soap that actually improved the
condition of the volunteers’ facial skin.(NCR/lack of controlled experiment)★★★★
3.The volunteers may have misunderstanding about the condition of their facial skin.
(credibility of the evidence)★★★★
4.The author fails to consider possible negative effects of Luxess. (adv:disadv)★★★
health and beauty, 论断：L对提高脸部皮肤状况真的有效。因为对一组自愿者为期一个月的试验中发现，大多数志愿者报告说他们的皮肤看起来和感觉上有很显著的提高。论断的所有推理及论据均来自这次试验，而对于试验的描述存在很多问题。·没有关于样本人群的特征描述，不能证明参加试验的人群具有普遍代表性。论者没有提供有关志愿者人数，及试验前的皮肤状况，这样不能保证结果科学。如果说志愿者人数少，且皮肤状况有同一问题，结果只能证明L对某种状态的皮肤有效，而对其他人无效。·没有关于试验过程的具体描述。论断提供的有关描述中不能让人排除是其他因素使志愿者皮肤改变，比如是中性肥皂，比如试验时或试验的地点气候宜人，比如试验者可能还在使用其他护肤品。没有这样的资料，也不能说明L有效。·没有对试验结果科学的描述。单凭志愿者自我报告感觉和看起来是非常不科学的。因为存在心理因素的影响，认为换了一种护肤品皮肤一定会有变化，或是对于不好的情况不愿意报告。所以论者应提供对志愿者皮肤改变结果科学的分析。不然无法证明志愿者的皮肤因为L有了改善。结论：论者的描述非常不科学，缺乏说服力。要增加说服力，还需要进一步提供有关这次试验的资料，比如志愿者的人数、年龄、皮肤状态，试验的过程有无其他因素干扰，并对结果进行科学量化的分析。